Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, ever since the AMO changed in 1995, we have had 15 La Nina's, and 9 El Nino's, but even the Neutral's/some El Nino's are showing La Nina-forcing coming from the equator. https://ibb.co/2csFL89 https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn I found yesterday that if you expand the dataset, the AMO cycles seem to correlate slightly to PNA/RNA, especially in the Winter time. +AMO does appear to have a correlation to SE ridge, and -AMO SE trough: Decadal AMO https://ibb.co/QJbBxt8 1st +AMO (1926 to 1965) https://ibb.co/HPj0Hqq 2nd +AMO (1996 to 2023) https://ibb.co/xsgJp81 1st -AMO (1900 to 1925) https://ibb.co/4dNrvht 2nd -AMO (1966 to 1995) https://ibb.co/PGbGTBx I am weary of calling the cycle PDO, because there are equal heights in the S. Hemisphere beneath Nino 3.4 (the strongest known impactful region) of the same magnitude as N. Hemisphere. It seems to be just a La Nina-base state (RNA correlation). Even Neutral ENSO since 1998 has looked more like a La Nina-forcing https://ibb.co/g7ffp52

Look at how we just lost that -EPO. Maybe this is what raindancewx was talking about yesterday.

Models lost the -EPO-ridging for Jan 13th storm.. neutral heights now over Alaska, and they retrograde the -PNA ridge to -WPO only when we start losing the -NAO. That's what I thought yesterday, they sometimes hold onto a strong storm track, and adjust the upper latitude heights, if the total situation before is more unlikely. We needed that EPO-block from the last few 12z Euro runs. It's all but gone on 06z GEFS.

Beautiful storm I think we can trend colder if we have 2 blocks to the north.. unless models backoff on that

+AMO does appear to have a correlation to SE ridge, and -AMO SE trough Decadal AMO https://ibb.co/QJbBxt8 1st +AMO (1926 to 1965) https://ibb.co/HPj0Hqq 2nd +AMO (1996 to 2023) https://ibb.co/xsgJp81 1st -AMO (1900 to 1925) https://ibb.co/4dNrvht 2nd -AMO (1966 to 1995) https://ibb.co/PGbGTBx Again, since the AMO went + in 1995, we have had 15 La Nina's and 9 El Nino's https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn

There has to be an answer. I've seen so many times that the convenient answers are not usually it

I think it is eventually. The sun has cooled down since 1998. Maybe that is part of the reason the constant is equilateral La Nina pattern? https://ibb.co/MVkW8Wz

Right.. you would think that the snowy '60s -PNA composite would work now, but we are pumping a much greater relative SE ridge for whatever reason. I don't think it's necessarily global warming, because they first theorized that +PDO would be impacted, and every part of N. America would be effected except the SE, US. The mid-latitude cell and the Hadley cell meeting is a weather phenomenon, not some broadbased warming. South wind is making it up into NYC more frequently, I think we need a N. Pacific trough (especially in January) to cool it down. It might just be that the historical composites are not taking fully into the effect the power of a PNA pattern (more effected waves downstream than what they show). It also hit me that a lot of the 1700s/1800s climate records are pretty close to now, honestly, you would think they wouldn't have had snowless Winters for 5 straight years in the 1800s and some record highs still standing.

It's actually a La Nina cycle https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn SSTs warm/cool after the fact. Your composite shows barely positive anomalies in the Pacific. We are rocking a pretty good high pressure for the next 2 weeks. I think it should change after the 20th, because that's the ENSO state but we'll see. My roll forward composite (Jan 5-13 N. Pacific ridge) is nailing it right now so is the Dec +EPO roll forward. -PNA's are hooking up with SE ridge more than normal right now (relative conditions like -NAO are not stopping it). My only explanation is that in the mature/later part of a cycle it has stronger downstream effects.

OND ONI is +1.9, making it the 6th highest El Nino event since 1950, and 6th highest OND ONI on record. If you include La Nina's, it's the 7th strongest event.

Looks like more of a -PNA building (trough digging into the SW), and 12z GEFS already had strong -PNA. -PNA's have completely overwhelmed -NAO's lately, that's the cycle we're in. I wouldn't be surprised if future runs trended less -NAO.

Let's hope it doesn't do the same thing as mid-March 2023 https://ibb.co/SRLw91H https://ibb.co/QX0zz36 -PNA region has been overwhelming of late

18z HRRR really nails NNE. But even Boston changes over to rain.

I can see -PNA's in the Sun. It seems like it's shining more radiant (March sun angle, for example.) Then I check and all models go more -PNA.

GFS and Euro both have something for the 13th. Active STJ https://ibb.co/P63BHFy https://ibb.co/nL6WRnG

Yeah especially because weather is science and has a lot of ongoing reference points.

When the -NAO is lifting up that is our storm chance. The -PNA, if that is the pattern, has a high precip correlation, 0.55 in January https://ibb.co/191HM4P Problem is -PNA's lately have brought south wind all the way to NYC.

Lately, in the mature part of a -PNA cycle, the correlation has been there. Not overall though yeah. It should be noted that the -PNA cycle began when the AMO went +.

A lot of snow for all the insane HL blocking the last 2 Winter's. That N. Pacific -PNA region is really a dominant pattern at this point in time. And the -NAO has a SE ridge correlation since 18-19, and really going back to 2013.

Even though models pinch the Pacific ridge into -EPO/-WPO, it's still a -PNA pattern, and a strong one at that. You guys should really run the composites for -NAO's lately and the -PNA patterns that have happened at the same time. I think +NAO/+PNA is correlating too. GEFS by day 15-16 is really starting to warm things up here, with the NW trough trying to retrograde into +EPO, which happens sometimes after big blocking episodes. +300dm Aleutian island ridge on the mean. -PNA pattern https://ibb.co/fHQdLDL

00z GFS kicks out the -NAO quickly.. These have had no staying power lately. With Pacific ridge pinching into -EPO/-WPO, watch the rising-up-to neutral part of NAO cycle for historical snowstorm threat.

18z gfs not as blocky as 12z Euro, but you still have 498dm moving into the Upper Midwest at Day 10.

The Stratosphere warming started Dec 25, so it's showing again that the lagged -NAO a lot of times works. Lag at this time of the year is +25-30 days, but +19 days shown there isn't a bad fit.

No one mentioned the 12z Euro Day 10 has a block over Alaska and a block over Greenland. Storm moving in. https://ibb.co/r20wwDn Much more snowy pattern if it's true.

Thanks. It's a learning opportunity. Do you see how the storm got sheared out by relative SE ridge in trend. It was because the models were not properly estimating the impacts of -PNA/RNA pattern (N. Pacific High, pretty strong). Last Winter there were a few times at 5-7 days where the models had a +EPO (Alaska trough) and they were showing snow, then it adjusted to the surface level warmth in the closer timeframe. These two patterns, -PNA and +EPO are not conductive to big snows, when they are in a strong phase, so it trended warmer and phased out (in my experience, the models don't totally account for that, for whatever reason). I showed +0.53 charts for PNA-pattern in January. https://ibb.co/mvGCw9F [default positive].