Stormchaserchuck1

Some models have it mixing on or SE of I-95. I think the snow depth is most accurate because it takes into account lower ratios.

15z SREF.. seems like they are honing in on 3" max, except the RAP which had 4-5"

18z NAM really strengthened the potential a little bit.. same precip, but it's closer to a phase, and about 3-4mb lower with the coastal. I think they could go WSWatches. Key thing is 18z HRR had a more negative tilt early, and upped totals in the SE. Negative is it's going with a faster thump.

Pushes the cold front through faster https://ibb.co/W3nGM2m A little closer to a phase I guess..

Yeah, LWX is going aggressive. I guess they like longer duration storms.

18z NAM better at 30hr https://ibb.co/2c6MD09

Really upped the totals for TN!

Better orientation 18z Hrrr https://ibb.co/3Yc1GKD

I like this one because it's going to stick around. 19th will probably melt shortly after.

A little more ridging out in front 10hr 18z Hrrr vs 12z Hrrr https://ibb.co/YTq8vcq

EPO and WPO patterns don't last that long.. On average their oscillations last 7-12 days. The NAO or PNA will go for 15-35 days, but it's hard to get a sustained EPO.. it fluctuates back and forth a lot, giving you not as constant winter-means.

Most people don't know that -EPO and +NAO is a snowy pattern.. you don't think 13-14 and 14-15 will ever happen again, but I disagree. I think they are lightly correlating.

sell I want 4"

-WPO blocks often retrograde and sometimes give way to big warmth.. a 500mb low creeps in under it. on Jan 23-24, the models are showing the 576dm line almost making it to DC. This is a really strong -EPO signal though for Jan 27-30+. +200dm over Alaska is what I like to see.. and +NAO makes it similar to the 13-14, 14-15 analogs. Here's -EPO correlation with temps in late January/ early February: Temps: https://ibb.co/rmdQbNb Precip https://ibb.co/gJvCrng +0.43(cold) and -0.12(precip) gives us +0.31 for net probability snowy pattern. This is when models build it Jan 27th on.. if they are accurate. +NAO is +0.45(temps) and +0.35(precip).. so a net of -0.10 for probability snow pattern. The combined of the two indexes is +0.21 for Jan 27th on..

It's the RAP, but it does put 4" down north of Baltimore

Yeah, that's all positive snow depth.. best looking totals if you run it out Here's the 700mb rh at 51hrfwiw

03z RAP vs 21z.. a little flatter. looks like more precip though https://ibb.co/PYKyM5D

0z GFS snow depth has it hitting up to 2"

21z RAP out to 51hrs was pretty juicy.. had a wide area of 6-8" from TN to WV.

60hr.. it's still snowing back to KY https://ibb.co/pJdmv8V

Snow depth is 2"+ over a good portion of the area 54hr.. still snowing

Seems to be a little more organized this run https://ibb.co/Q6Fxvw4

It's digging a tiny bit more this run

48hr Actually a pretty good difference vs the 18z NAM at 54hr.. vort max is in Omaha/N. Missouri vs western Nebraska

A little more neg tilt https://ibb.co/z4kSt3y