Stormchaserchuck1

New Euro gets DC up to 580dm Jan 23rd! 470'sdm over south Greenland, makes that a >100dm gradient/difference! CPC has the AO hitting +3 during that time. It doesn't look permanent though.

18z Hrr has 3" for NE MD.. this thing really trended north after us. storm is now suppose to snow to Toronto.

These strong -WPO patterns usually flip. Here's the Jan 500mb regression correlation to WP-index https://ibb.co/WKJnvb1 See how it reverses over Alaska the next month https://ibb.co/tCJW8KT That's what we are seeing on models.. it maxes out near +600dm Jan 17-19 https://ibb.co/L5Bz98K Then it flips over AK Jan 22-24 https://ibb.co/WDSGf8Q It could really get warm when that happens.. it also looks like the +NAO is pulling from the depths of the Atlantic tropics, as like 50% of the Hemisphere is above average Jan 25-27. Ensemble mean has the 576dm line in DC Jan 23-25.

I think the trend toward a stronger system is a good trend, but short term models are sneaking a warm tongue in there and dryslot. Ideally, I think the heaviest precip should occur NW of the surface low, so I don't mind it wrapping up.. The global models are keeping precip closer to the surface low than the short term models are right now.

3z RAP really upped the totals from TN to WV.. north trend on this model

It's shifting NW/stronger vs 21z https://ibb.co/4JWmnr7

02z RAP is shifting NW/stronger as well.

I like the maps just fine.. you can't see everything? They animate nicely. You can show me better maps if you want, but I like snow depth.

01z RAP is looking more impressive https://ibb.co/NK9x4N2 12" in TN

They will probably put WSWatches up north of Baltimore

It actually shows 2-4".. ratios have it changing over to ice briefly along I-95.

Stronger coastal https://ibb.co/SPJpBLm

Coastal low is further south on the NAM... keeps the precip going over the area

Shifted north a good bit https://ibb.co/F0pp2Kz

NW of NYC and SNE

Pretty big shift north in the NE actually.. similar to what the RAP did https://ibb.co/gM3BdR4

Whole trough is more negative this run.. only slight differences with storm so far https://ibb.co/6Y3nDGG

0z Hrrr.. slight shift NW at hr20 https://ibb.co/QdBYr0w

I don't like big High pressures over the N. Pacific Ocean.. they correlate to snow here close to "0"

Gives part of WV 12-14".. we'll see

21z RAP fwiw really got more organized with the coastal.. gives NW of NYC 4-6"

https://ibb.co/VCTCWHk

Small changes in 21z RAP https://ibb.co/0DtM2r6

18z GFS vs 12z https://ibb.co/mvmTR4x

I don't know.. I personally like the setup, because there is more upside when a storm is wet over the TN valley then jumps to the coast. Here was the 18z Hrrr Here's the 18z NAM