Stormchaserchuck1

You have the -NAO/-EPO/+PNA right, but the strength of those anomalies does not match your analogs. Look at the NAO region, Euro weeklies has a +70dm anomaly, and 2010 was +250dm and 1958 +150dm, kind of a big difference. The PNA and EPO regions are similar though.. I would love that Pacific, but in reality we haven't seen that kind of pattern sustain over a 1-month period for a long time now (since 15-16).

I know that since I moved north of Baltimore, it has snowed 12/22 April's here. I don't think March patterns have been great.. and I would bet against a cold March this year with negative anomalies building in the ENSO subsurface, but the +pna really picked up this Winter when we went negative in the subsurface (counter-intuitive) so we'll see how it evolves.

This looks really good... This is my "perfect pattern" for cold, with a +PNA. All 3 features are there, I like the way it's building a High pressure in the southern NAO region on the ensemble mean. Let's see if it holds going forward. https://ibb.co/vxr6JJq That northern AK +anomaly really correlates with cold at like 0.5, and doesn't depress precip.

Pretty nice pattern loading up on the 384hr 18z GFS ensemble mean. This is the first panel where a High pressure settles over NAO region, and the Pacific looks great https://ibb.co/Gcj8Fpk

Too bad it's not colder

384hr looks good on the 18z GFS ensemble mean, +PNA trying to develop. We just have to get past our 2 waves of +EPO here in the next 9 days.

mmm.. looks like the EPO and NAO are both + there. I bet as you trend closer to the event, it becomes more index-related

I would say so. We had 2 Stratosphere warming events, 1st one occurred Dec 25- Jan 9. A 2nd one occurred Jan 13-21. The 12/25 one averages a +25 day lag to -NAO impact, but that can vary as much as +10-15 days. We had a solid -NAO 1-4 to 1-19, so that's +10 days after the first 10mb warming. Under that extreme "downwelled" -NAO we did see 2 waves stay suppressed, giving us snow.

Models do have the 10mb PV going negative. That correlates at +0day with +AO, but this Winter is strong -QBO and El Nino, which verifies 70/30 to 10mb warming, so maybe it won't be too bad longer run.

Don't know why you guys think you can claim anything is true.. fast must mean right. here, this was a jet extension too. https://ibb.co/4ZStGKw oooo look at the fancy jet extension. bright colors https://ibb.co/vVrZZ8X

Correlates with a SE trough though.. NW ridge. It's under a +PNA low.

The ridging is from +NAO..

It's not really a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna.

That's a lot of rain on the 12z GFS.. too bad it won't be colder. STJ appears to be healthy and well.

Hopefully it's a loading pattern for a -NAO.. The Pacific looks good.

Natural Gas 33% drop this month. I've found a 0.4-0.5 correlation with the 2nd half of Winter (lower is warmer, higher is colder). https://ibb.co/JpSn9Mb

Natural Gas rose... now it's fallen back to 2.38. I've found under 2.5 correlates with basically negative 500mb anomaly 60N-90N.. +NAO/+AO/+EPO.. but it's only a -40-50dm signal (+1-2 months from happening) https://ibb.co/JpSn9Mb

Ravens only favored by -3 at home next week lol

Yeah Lamar Jackson is 21-1 against the NFC.. if we get there, we should win

Yeah, if you had to say chicken and egg though, I would say the La Nina patterns are coming first, then -PDO is resulting from the effected wave. https://ibb.co/TmBkw1S

Your presupposition is that Strong El Nino's are bad for I-95? That's not necessarily true, the below average snowfall this season has been more from -PNA/+EPO, which are more La Nina patterns, vs it being a Strong El Nino.. In the examples of 72-73 and 97-98, there was a strong N. Pacific low pressure (El Nino effect), but the jet stretched over N. America to include the east coast in those years (which is more rare of an occurance).

I don't think so.. https://ibb.co/Xk3MNZC It seems to be an effect of the Pacific Ocean vs Global warming, unless you argue that more La Nina's occur in Global warming.. what I always heard about it in the 1990s was that more El Nino's would be the effect.

It hasn't happened so far this in this El Nino.. maybe the February correlation will hold. I think an El Nino should favor +PNA/-NPH (North Pacific High) all times of the Winter, but the "Dec warm" thing held this year so maybe Feb will too.

We've had a moderate Stratosphere warming for the last 7 days.. It even maxed out >2,000, which is pretty strong. https://ibb.co/kXmPbht At this time of the year, 10mb warming correlates to -NAO in +20 days about 2/3 times. That puts it at Feb 2-10. LR models don't have the NAO negative right now Feb 2-6, so we'll see. (The correlation isn't perfect it could range +5-10 days.) Some will say that we already had the -NAO effect, but I disagree, on the last day of this 10mb (in this image below), the 500mb NAO is positive, and the historical analysis shows that 10mb usually leads in time, although 500mb and 10mb are kind of lined up right now. https://ibb.co/BK0hdy6

We've had a moderate Stratosphere warming for the last 7 days.. It even maxed out >2,000, which is pretty strong. https://ibb.co/kXmPbht At this time of the year, 10mb warming correlates to -NAO in +20 days about 2/3 times. That puts it at Feb 2-10. LR models don't have the NAO negative right now Feb 2-6, so we'll see. (The correlation isn't perfect it could range +5-10 days.)