Stormchaserchuck1

There is not that much difference in the NAO because of "The -PDO depressing El Nino".

50/50 low and N. Pacific low as the two dominant N. Hemisphere features.. that's what it looks like in the big snowstorm examples. Let's see if the model holds those features as we get closer, like inside 12 days.. I say that because it's been so warm lately, and model flux has been above average this year.

That's what it looks like.. there has been a subsurface anti-correlation the last 2 Winter's. This year when the negative anomalies started showing up in the last week or two, we shifted to +pna and that looks to continue. Last February when we had warm water in the central subsurface by Jan-Feb, the atmosphere went -pna. I found that historically the opposite is usually true.

There is a big difference between the advertised pattern and your analogs. That +200dm anomaly over Greenland vs +70dm is a big difference.

With the amount of moisture available, I don't see why Boston couldn't get in on it too.

That's true they are increasing in duration but the NAO is positive Winter to date, and last year it was a little positive overall too. 21-22 was 4/4 positive months.

It's going to be hard for the NAO to get that negative though. Your composites are more than double the ensemble mean in the NAO area... today was the first major +NAO Jan 21-28 since 1997. Sometimes it takes a little while to shift that state, especially recently, we haven't been able to sustain a -NAO for several Winters/decades.

Wow.. -3 now in the central-subsurface, and it's only January. The maintenance of the subsurface warm pool earlier in the Winter was why I was not thinking we would be heading right back to La Nina, but this recent push is like those analogs that made a strong switch. It also, I have found historically correlates to more -PNA conditions, even if it's the N. America part of the measurement. But models are showing the opposite in February so we'll see..

Mid Atlantic seems like a good spot. Maybe even further south if we do really go into a sustained +PNA (which may or may not happen).

Could be a big Hurricane season if we go into a La Nina.

We might not have 7" for the year by then

17/18 El Nino's had a -SOI in January.. this one has a +3 to +5 SOI. Just putting that out there.. https://ibb.co/YT6YjLz (SOI +1 month is stronger than Nino 3.4 +1, in the south).

This is a pretty insane amount of moisture to work with though if it does get cold. https://ibb.co/553zQrQ

Yes, but they also had January as cold. I think we are +2-4 above average for the month.

They've been showing this since September.

Wouldn't it be weird though for this pattern to just show up for 1-month all of a sudden?

384hr now really starts building an Aleutian low.. -200dm on the mean. -NAO also trying to get organized, but let's see if it holds going into the next few days.

+17-20 days after Dulles all time January daily high's: https://ibb.co/q1CKGhS

Surprisingly, cold in the West is the greatest correlation. We have a +3-4std +NAO now as the main contributor. https://ibb.co/j9NT9k4

~Jan 27th is the coldest day of the year too.

It's going to get close to 80 in DC today! Let's see how models handle the current conditions, they have been showing big cold/good storm setups at 384hr, but it's been on the last 384hr panel for about 3-4 days now. 6z GFS ensemble mean has that really good -NAO/+PNA building at 384hr too: https://ibb.co/WWj2GBP It's a loading pattern on the map, so if those two areas go stronger beyond, then that's a really great setup in a year where the N. Hemisphere has been so wet, with a wet STJ. Sometimes when the initial day is so warm, LR models will back off the strong cold though. Let's see what happens, especially at 18z - 6z tomorrow.

Before 12pm!

Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. I said to everyone, "there is no way that could miss us" but the local forecasts weren't updating. 20" here that day.

Not when the last time we saw it at all, was 15-16. that means it has happened 0 times recently, going back to then, basically opposite of your point. I hit the first snowstorm, and didn't think the 2nd one was going to trend better. I should have done better with the 2nd storm since it was in a ripe spot of rising-out-of strong -NAO. 1/2, but I hit the first threat and said it would be rain when models had a lot of snow so technically 2/3 this Winter. The correlations aren't perfect, but we also have the greatest anomaly for a consecutive month of a 6-year period on record over the N. Pacific '18-23 (-PNA) so I am really curious to see if we shatter that streak this year like basically all the LR models are currently saying.. Why not though we have an El Nino going for us this year. I just don't think those weeklies are as good as PSU is implying, is the only point I was making. 18z GFS ensembles LR also somewhat backed off that awesome look they were showing at 12z.

I particularly like that EPO region which is stronger on the mean than your analogs.. my point is they are showing a -120dm +PNA vs +70dm -NAO which is weighted more toward a Pacific-dominant pattern, vs Atlantic mostly dominant in your analogs. The look is sweet though, I'm skeptical that it can come out that good as that, because of consistency, and the El Nino is weakening with cold water encroaching the subsurface, and the SOI recently going positive (17/18 El Nino's had a negative SOI right now)... but the interesting thing is, since the El Nino started waning, the +PNA correlation started happening, so I don't know.. maybe it continues to happen now unlike earlier.