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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is now a -3c pocket in the central-subsurface on TAO/Triton maps. NOAA said 55% chance La Nina develops by the Summer a little while ago, based on the subsurface. It may be a little higher now.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since it's slow, I'll say again that NG is 1.86, the over/under on March temps in the NE/GL's with this is +5-7F. My guess is because models want to develop a -NAO/AO from the February Stratosphere warming, there may be -PNA/+EPO in March.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't bet on fluke heavy snow in the SE. There is heavy trend against it. Even when the upper latitude pattern is favorable for them the last two Winters, it's not even really close.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nobody's into it, but we get some wrap around flurries Tuesday on the 0z NAM. Low pressure is really strong, 980s mb right when it exits the coast off of Ocean City.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    RAP.. whew
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Up where I live in Harford County, I might get 45 minutes of heavy snow.. may add up to a dusting or 1/2". For the 5-10% chance, A small shift south could be a big deal though.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z Hrr fwiw was colder than the NAM with the 0 line at 48hrs https://ibb.co/s1FZmsS
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really close for northern MD on the 18z NAM. Close, but a miss. 850mb temps are near 0 at hr63 heavy precip close Actual SL low is off of Ocean City MD..
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAM is definitely more amped this run https://ibb.co/vhgMX70
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z GEFS: PNA is negative for "PSU storm".. I don't care what the NAO is doing, the Pacific has overwhelmed the Atlantic constantly since 18-19. I mean, with the way it's trending, we may end up in the 50s. I still think PD is our best shot at snow, because it has the most favorable upper latitude pattern. When subsurface ENSO changes happen, the N. Pacific pattern does adjust, sometimes even despite what is going on at the surface. It's a fairly successful forecasting method. The -NAO/-PNA/+EPO, +NAO/+PNA/-EPO correlation is holding. Models were showing a break, but it backed off of the short term -NAO, associated with +PNA, and went stronger on long range -NAO associated with -PNA.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really getting warm out today.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm out, 60 degrees, and I love it. I've been seeing all this Spring grazing birds, and they are moving like it's March-April..
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    See PSU this is what's happening https://ibb.co/x70S0hq
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    We lose the -EPO and the Japan ridge is moving east. In verification, Surface temps would be a problem I think.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did you guys see my NG research? It's since fallen down to 1.83 https://ibb.co/kxdbZSs
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO isn't even stronger on our side of the globe. https://ibb.co/zFvdTQv 0.38 correlation in February to Air Temps https://ibb.co/XDCcQyq https://ibb.co/P6KD38J
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah.. did you guys see the NOAA issued a La Nina watch https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower And it could be +QBO next year too.. and the last time we had +NAO we hit 80 in January!
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's a strong NAO we had.. a few days ago https://ibb.co/31LQ0dy
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's not even a block. And the tendency is for things to be warmer.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah.. that ridge near Japan is approaching the same extent. It doesn't even close off a block. In the last year, we've seen 3 stronger -NAO events (March '23, early Dec '24, Jan '24). GEFS is a weaker signal right now though, and 6z is more recent.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/YP0TMQd
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    This isn't that bad from this range. What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    This does not hit northern MD
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now on models: The NAO is moderately negative for 84 hours, and that's about it (hrs 204-288)! Compared to some recent episodes, the Polar ridging doesn't look impressive, it barely even closes off any blocks. +250dm max (-epo/-ao) in February is not that much. The 50/50 low has trended much weaker for PD threat.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    A lot of ensemble variation still on the storm. Some miss it completely to the south. https://ibb.co/2880jhz Usually when there's a bombing low pressure, there is a wider range.
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