Stormchaserchuck1

Not going to hit 90 in that allotted time, but DC has had 3 straight days of 82+ here in March, making it the 4th warmest March on record. With the NAO being positive almost all of the time in the Winter (March will probably be >+1.00), the Pacific is what is needed for cold, but when the Pacific favorability shuts down, it torches.. DC hit 84F today.. a few days ago, it was expected to make it into the mid 70s today.

Looks like they want to repeat 2024-2025.. I wonder if back to back years have ever been so similar (except for ENSO)

Atlantic SSTA's are right near the 30-year average, cooler than the last few years. But the year-to-year makes a difference, as the subsurface does play a role in tropical systems. Because the last 2 years were record breaking warm, there is probably warmer subsurface water in the Atlantic relative to current SSTs. There is also a cold pool right off of Africa, that has a lite correlation with a cooler Atlantic during peak season, but the anomaly is weak right now so it's not a real good roll-forward.

CPC is actually going really aggressive on -NAO based cold from/after Stratosphere warming.

Stratosphere warming is finally correlating with -NAO on models.

SOI has been positive every day for more than a month now. SOI Dashboard | LongPaddock | Queensland Government SOI led this time last year, that the La Nina would not go strong. It seems to be having the same effect over the last few weeks.. It's also been positive 7 months in a row, including March. 2020-2023 it was positive 37 months in a row.

I saw this too.. My observation has been for the last 5+ years, we bust warmer a lot after the coldest day of the year passes (Jan 27th).. going into the early Spring

Thanks.. it's fitting the average time lag about perfectly this time (+15 days in April vs +45-60 days in Oct/Nov!) I wonder if models have a bias at all regarding SSW's and following -NAO's..

Even since Winter 18-19, we've been getting this huge -PNA/+NAO pattern.. it's actually -AAM I love this next image, because it covers a 300-month consecutive period over 25 years.. this is the 12-month total May-Apr 1999 to 2024.. When 20% of the dataset is hit like this over a consecutive period, there is a >95% chance that the max anomaly would be over the Poles.. but we have been in a La Nina base state generally since the 97-98 Super El Nino

We've been getting -NAO's in the Summer.. This is what it's been.. expansion of the Hadley Cell in the Northern Hemisphere, amped is a -PNA/+WPO pattern in the Pacific, and +NAO in the Atlantic

-NAO on models from the Stratosphere warming.. +15 days is about perfect time lag for this time of year

CPC continues doing this stuff every day since early-February.. will be interesting to see if it verifies.

This goes for everyone.. if the model is showing snow in the long range: 1) Look at the 500mb index patterns - Is the NAO negative? - Is the PNA positive? - Is the EPO negative? If not, don't expect troughs. This kind of hit me when PSUhoffman said 10% chance it verifies.. in reality, it's about 1-2%. Unless the NAO is negative, ensemble mean is showing a trough over the east, etc. For your map, I'd say it's 1% chance of verifying. It hit 82F in Portland today.

CPC has had above average precip in the area pretty much every day, in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day, since early February.. hasn't happened like that yet.

These peaks in high temps around the edges of Winter are a little concerning for annual snow/cold, imo. 1/26/2024, Washington DC hit 80F.. that was the first time it ever did 80s late Nov - late February.. crushed it by a month! Do we hit 90F in DC sometime 4/4-7? 80F this Saturday. October and November have had 80s lately. March 2012 was an interesting turn, as many places in the Mid-Atlantic hit 90F. Since then overall snowfall has been down 2012-2025.

In March the NAO correlated warmer.. March pretty much neutralized the cold anomalies from DJF on the 30-year average, I guess saving my Winter forecast, but this Pacific-Atlantic correlation of +NAO/+PNA/-EPO and -NAO/-PNA/+EPO continues to hit. I saw it happen many times this Winter, when one index would shift, they all would shift.. I've estimated about a 0.40 correlation in the pattern since 2019, and 0.30 correlation since 2013. Also if you look at Europe's warming trend over the last few decades it's incredible! It's not like the US where there was snow 2009-2016, then not 2016-2024, etc.. it's a straight line down in places like Germany. That's because the Winter NAO has been positive since 2011-2012. 85% of the time since then! Say what you want about a warm US pattern despite -epo/+pna/-ao this year, but the NAO was very positive and that was a warm Winter variable!

It was really amazing to see the grass green up after those 2 good rains we had.. it was brown before. Hopefully we don't continue the pattern of last Summer, where the cap was breaking for nothing.. it was hot and humid, and no thunderstorms!

I can see some deep hurricanes this year.. Since the Winter we have been trending toward deeper/stronger low pressures in the mid-latitudes. There have been several 970s/980s mb lows. From 2020-2023, we saw a lot of mid latitude high pressures, so this is a trend in the other direction that really started in 2024. Will be interesting to see if it correlates into the tropics for Hurricane season. I was just responding to Barry, saying that we saw an expansion of the Hadley Cell, and more global high pressure systems, especially 2020-2023, but really since 1998. I don't know what the correlation with west-Pacific activity and the PNA is, but it might be a lower. It's this ENSO-dominated pattern that I'm talking about: High pressure in the Pacific might have kept activity down there. I'm not completely sure on that though. Now we have more low pressure.. this started in 2024 actually when the NAO was going severe positive many times May-Sept I wouldn't be surprised if we see an uptick of activity globally this year.... although I don't know why the difference for the last 30 years is so significant. I think current patterns continue to favor more Atlantic activity relative to the globe.

Kind of a wide range, but a lot of recent years are probably good analogs. I guess weed out the El Nino's and La Nina's. In the last 30 years though, global ACE is 70% of normal, while Atlantic ACE is something like 185% (and Atlantic is included in global number!). So although warm Atlantic SSTs and no El Nino may make some want to go aggressive, it's important to remember that globally more storms are not correlating with global warming over the last few decades..

ENSO models going near Neutral for the season.. We saw a major warming trend a few weeks ago, but that since waned big time: ENSO Subsurface is still negative.. so Neutral continues to be highest probability for the coming season... difference since 1995 is: ~20 NS La Nina, ~16 NS Neutral, ~12 NS El Nino.

Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. It's amazing how forecasted long range -NAO tendency (March Stratosphere warming +time "downwelled") has run so warm in the East over the last few years. We had the warmest winter on record last year (23-24) with 4 separate Stratosphere warming events. -NAO potential at Day 15+ has almost always run with higher temps in the eastern, US, to verification time lately. That's why last Summer I was seeing +NAO potential for this Winter (24-25) as possibly a cold signal.. and it was! It often linked up with -EPO/+PNA/-AO!

With the Western US ridge really overperforming today (Portland almost hit 80*), Models really trended warmer in the medium range for the US, with that being initialized. Really amped this +NAO/+EPO pattern, maybe something near 90* around here isn't so far away. Apr 4-7 looks warm, if not hot.

If you remember, we had record warm SSTs across the Atlantic early last Hurricane season. I made that chart in February 2024 I think, and it was smoothed out, so the cutoff had to be 2023. But if you include last year, it would look like this:

For the 777th post, I'll say it's going to be 77* on April 7th. https://ibb.co/pjWYBwg9

That's just the Gulf Stream shifted a little south.