Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, 00z and 01z has trended a little weaker at 500mb.

eh.. it's warmer at 11hrs.

0z NAM does have the low a little north of 18z at 5hrs.

ENSO subsurface is showing a -3c pocket now in the central region at -200m. In my research/experience, that has a pretty high correlation to the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time (backs the -PNA idea). Plus we are in some strong multi-year states with that 500mb feature in Feb/March.

The main region for PNA is in the N. Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian islands.. Both, or all 3 images shown so far had a ridge there (-PNA). I don't call what's happening over alaska or gulf of alaska, pna, although the CPC does include that.

Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islands https://ibb.co/9Wycxzf Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions. That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too..

Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. just normal ENSO climo.

It's easier to use, save, animate, quick loading time, doesn't go down being a NOAA site. I don't think there is a very big difference between the quality of all the different maps. If something is better, I would use it.

I'd say it's more -PNA/-PDO with a ridge south of the Aleutian islands and trough over Alaska. 12z GEFS was really strong -PNA around the 24th, with this central N. Pacific High pressure. We don't trend toward snow when this. https://ibb.co/4twbnfY

23z Hrr looks a little bit better. https://ibb.co/nDFbQ8Y

Will do. 23z RAP still showing 6" up here.

Low pressure is a little N in Tenn from where models had it.

lol yeah models are a mess

GFS and NAM were doing the same thing last time.. It's a 984mb low off of Ocean city 16 days from our coldest of the year.. good chances imo. It may end quickly though.

They will bust low like the last 2 times.. I expect Winter Storm Warnings to go up N of I-95 right before, or during the storm.

20z Hrr brought the heavy snow totals furthest SW of all model runs so far, 6" to Frederick, MD. I'm pretty comfortable with where I am in Harford Co. to get 4-6".

eh.. Big difference right now between the GFS/NAM and Hrr/RAP with regards to rates. I guess they are lower resolution models.

The GFS/NAM were showing 1-2" for the last storm at about this time, and the RAP/Hrr had 4-6", and some places got 6-7".

6" in northern MD on 20z Hrr.

Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z

3-4 hours of heavy snow on 20z RAP, I-95 and NW

closed 500mb https://ibb.co/Fg4gcGV

19z Hrr appears to be shifting a little south vs 18z.

19z RAP gives DC 4".

It's transferring, but yeah a little SW.