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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Their analogs keep the cold around for a while. This is up to Day+15 https://ibb.co/yhjBLNZ
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 12z GEFS looks cold for Feb 19-20, with a new signal to have a block in the Arctic Circle north of Alaska! https://ibb.co/nL3YXtw Now it's a matter of amplifying the STJ, because we have two perfect low positions in the 50/50 spot and south of the Gulf of Alaska. That High pressure north of Alaska though is called -EP/NH and has a strong tendency to be a cold pattern: H5 https://ibb.co/m09t85m US Surface Temps https://ibb.co/gwg8WWB
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yes.. something is going to need to change between H5 and the surface though. -EPO is an underrated cold pattern.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Crazy if we get rain with this H5 https://ibb.co/YR9gdSH I guess they will back off of it on future runs..
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    A trough in the east... you would think with the Atlantic blocking hooking up with -EPO at 384hr of GEFS you would have more severe cold.. I guess the Euro is the slightly warmer model right now.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Day 10 Euro tries to develop -EPO/+PNA/-NAO.. it's early, but I like that there are +heights over AK vs the GEFS at that time.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess the point is that the -NAO may be more likely to sustain giving the 10mb warming expected to occur ~ Feb 15-16.. I'm just saying based on how it hasn't held for like 14 years it may be a little harder than it seems..
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    A # of composites showing the same thing. Sometimes it would go -250, -250.. -100, 0, -50, -250, -300, -350. But the thing is, there were a lot that went +250, +150, 0, -150, -250, -350... so after like 100 examples, you had a clear time lag that had the highest correlation between 500mb and 10mb (and it was not D+0), the "+time" was about 3x stronger. There was also not less +time -NAO's if the D+0 nao was negative.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    You do a lot of researches, it could be worth it sometime to go back through the daily climate composite dataset and compare 10mb to 500mb. I found that negative events (strong 10mb vortex) correlated to +AO at 0-days all times of the Winter, and there was a strong lag-time (+10-45 days whether it was early or late in the Winter), regardless of if, there was a strong -NAO the day of the 10mb warming, for almost all warming events. The linear difference in times of the year with 3x the average -NAO +lag vs initial was a very compelling find, based on 75 years of data.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    As we get into March, the typical lag is +10-15 days, vs +45 days in November, but history says that's how it usually happens.. Even in the examples where there would be a monster -NAO the day of the 10mb warming, it would usually come back to spike up later in the allotted time.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    2010 is the last time I saw so much arctic blocking.. easily carrying over from the Atlantic into Alaska with >+100dm everywhere along the way. Now for it to hold as we get closer..
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    If we have another wave 10mb warming, it may be longer into March.. but we are still in a +nao era, as like 8/42 Winter months lately have come in negative or something like that, and big -NAO's lately have been lasting an average of 8-12 days. I think it may come up sooner than expected, maybe at the end of February. Then it might go negative again in March. GaWx in the ENSO thread said yesterday's models had Feb 15-16 as the 10mb warming peak, which would favor -NAO ~March 2-7.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've seen a lot of people say "it's propagating or not" (when the 10mb high/low connects with 500mb/surface at Day+0).. but it doesn't really happen like that. Correlations I've found is that no matter what the NAO signature is a 0-day, it has a higher correlation +10-40 days (depending when in the Winter it is), even if it's "making it to the surface" or not at 0-day. The Jan 13-24 10mb warming does have correlation to -NAO conditions ~Feb 3-20 (or sometime around there), just based on 75 years of data. It's not something that can be easily seen "as hitting now or not" at Day-0, although sometimes the mechanism of the 10mb warming stretches all atmospheric layers.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO/-AO really showing up as a beast on the 12z GEFS https://ibb.co/YR9gdSH I haven't seen it cover such a large area of the Polar domain in a long time.. (It's a 384hr model though). It seems like we've been at 384hr for a while, but they are getting better day-by-day. The problem with NAO getting too strong is, it can suppress storms. Here's a 0.4-0.5 precip correlation over the Mid Atlantic in February: https://ibb.co/8zrBxYf That's why a lot of big storms happen when the block lifts out.. But I do think energy in the southern US along the STJ is the sign of a wetter pattern. Really a cold pattern though, with the Atlantic ridge connecting with -EPO.. almost all you can ask for.. Still has the near 50/50 low, south of GOA low, central-southern US STJ energy to come east for Feb 19-20.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd say it's on (~ Feb 19) unless the upper latitude index pattern changes (which it hasn't yet). It also looks like an active STJ starting around that time so well have to just time something right in trend. It was always suppose to be warm before Valentines Day.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z GFS builds the +PNA at day 11! 952mb https://ibb.co/QMsMGYn
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Leading up to a triple phaser, or a blizzard, you generally want the N. Hemisphere to be colder anomaly. It's pretty simple, but almost all the major storms have it, days to weeks before, the Hemisphere temps dropped, or were colder than normal overall. Here's before March '93.. this is in the midst of '48-20 averages (93 is 65% of the way through).. colder hemisphere https://ibb.co/w6wRMH9
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    It does feel like it's been a colder Winter. A lot of low cumulus, and days in the 30s and 40s. These clouds are really pretty for the last 2 years, and I think we are bringing in a better overall period for snow/cold (although maybe several years, even a decade?, out). It's not the same composition as 2005-2017, where things were melting fast, and not refreezing, a lot of sunny bright days
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    What about January though where it had several runs going back to September of us being -1 to -4?
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    And the long range models will keep getting more and more accurate, and going out further and further in time! It's the point in the technological revolution we are in. I'm kind of disappointed because manual methods like analog research are no longer as valuable. The GEFS and EPS are still not performing all that great, though.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    For real.. let's do it
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    He was like 17 at the time lol. I used to post with them when I was also in high school and college.. they were fun, easily deep. I'm glad he's a successful person now with some good storm chasing videos.. looks like he's having a good time.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    like tresspass?
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I am excited. We are really in a warm era though. Things need to happen just right. We do have the perfect look at day 15, but let me go over what is normally a +PNA pattern (the main feature right now for that time) Temps: https://ibb.co/68v50zF Precip: https://ibb.co/T8789w8 Sea-level pressure: https://ibb.co/W5SyPpN SLP between here and the coast of -0.3-0.4 is the big deal, and why you get SECS'/MECS' in +PNA patterns.. they bomb over the immediate coastal water. But precip is generally lower, unless you get a big piece in the STJ from, say, El Nino (which is why I'm excited about this particular +pna pattern). The 2std low in texas on Feb 18th is a really good indicator of that for this time, and eventually transferring off the coast with a GOA low and 50/50 low in place... almost perfect generally speaking. Let's just hope this look holds... I don't care so much that the 384hr gfs is not logistically showing a snowstorm right now.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically speaking, these are the 3 main ingredients for a major snowstorm. https://ibb.co/TwM8d7y Now it looks like potentially Feb 19-20, but let's see if the recent trend of less +PNA inside 12-days stops tomorrow.
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