Stormchaserchuck1

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall.

I guess 1916-17 is his only one that makes sense. It was a -PNA Winter though, way below average in the West and Upper Midwest, average in the SE and Mid-Atlantic (vs 1900-2000 averages).

^lol, he's basically talking about a +PDO.

^Decadal trends are real. Some people don't get that for some reason. The Earth seems to move in waves, that are decades long. Now with all this data in 2025 we can map out the NAO/PDO and see that the standard deviation of random vs cycles is about 5:1 (5x more likely to be cyclical). The Earth is warming an average of 3-4F. ok. I don't think that applies to everything, and large scale patterns recently. The problem with data-analysis right now is that we might be in the middle of the -PDO/+NAO cycle, seeming like it's a one-way trend (with regards to the most talked about subject - Winter Northeast snowfall).

15/18 days in July have had +SOI now. This is after 9-straight +SOI months, going back to Oct 2024. July will likely be the 10th consecutive month. Here's what the next 10 months looks like in the roll-forward - 0.2 correlations is actually pretty decent for such a wide area of time.

Here is US pattern 5 months after 5-straight months of +AO (Aug-Dec)

July will likely be the 5th straight month with +AO. How does that roll-forward, through March? Here's an animation of the next four 5-month periods.. as you can see there is a -0.3 H5 correlation over the Arctic circle, or a 57-58% chance of the +AO continuing (over the Arctic circle, north of Alaska at least). This is actually a little more +epo than +ao in technical classifications, in the roll-forward.

Thanks! Then it looks like it peaks even higher the next day.. getting close to 604dam around where that thread said the previous high was located. Interesting how much it matches the PDO composite for August.

603dm ridge over the Rockies on 18z GFS! I wonder what the US record is.

+NAO/+AO regime is really strong right now. It will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Fall. Last year it ended in September. Developing La Nina should push some cold waves into the US through the NW and Upper Midwest - I'm curious to see how much it correlates to the pattern, and if it's actually developing "from the top down" (from the deeply negative PDO). I've researched ENSO subsurface and found that it has a higher correlation to the North Pacific 500mb pattern than surface SSTs.. subsurface is Neutral right now but the central-ENSO-subsurface has been cooling the last few days, there is a -2c pocket now. My main concern for Winter prospects with this developing Weak Nina is if we dry up the STJ again.. but this year has been so wet, it's almost counter-intuitive. I would guess it wouldn't be as dry as last year. Will have to analog that.

A warm Fall, I think. Also higher chances for a -PNA pattern this Winter. The Rockies ridge if it establishes towards the end of the month may bring heat east in waves. It will be interesting to see how long the High pressure stays there.

18z GFS breaks 6000dm in the Rockies the last few days of July! Interestingly, this is the August correlation to PDO (for negative like we have now, the correlation is opposite)

7/31 years since 1994 have been ENSO Neutral (using 5-month ONI classification) Using 3-month classification, only 5/31 years since 1994 have been Neutral ENSO!

The difference between -0.4 or -0.6 ONI historically is a +10dm cold season difference in the Winter North Pacific High pressure

Thanks! I found this interesting

I'm surprised that seasonal models are so strong on a La Nina developing over the next few months, without strong negative subsurface anomalies. I guess it has something to do with 9 straight months of +SOI, as the SOI was a fantastic indicator last year, hinting that it wouldn't be a La Nina, with the index not going positive until the Fall.

With the PDO so negative, I think we can increase the chances for warmer CONUS Fall, at least Sept-Oct, and especially October - the pattern of the 2000s. This hit big time last year, with a counter-intuitive -0.5 correlation H5 +EPO in Sept-Oct. It may be a warm Pacific pattern in October.

Wonder if we'll finally break this strong +AO pattern, that has been there since May..

SOI data is reliable and goes back to the 1800s. Here's the top 9 positive SOI Fall/Winters minus negative SOI Fall Winters 1900-1950.. fits our post-1950 composite. In other words, this image below is the typical La Nina state 1900-1950. March included Here's precip

It's because it's not overpowering other forces. If we had an El Nino at +5c, there would no doubt be a trough in the North Pacific.

Daily PDO is hitting -3.4, they say that's the lowest daily they've ever seen. Last October the daily peaked at -3.0, and it resulted in a -3.8 monthly for October 2024, the lowest monthly reading on record going back to the 1800s.

Does anyone know that the top global sea-level pressure correlation during an ENSO event is actually NW of Australia and in Indonesia.. it's a total global-tropical phenomenon.. that >0.6 correlation in the equilateral-Atlantic is impressive, too.

El Nino favors cooler waters in the mid-latitudes where the Hadley Cell meets the Mid-latitude Cell... it's the opposite of what we have now from Japan to north of Hawaii

Yeah, the subsurface is weak right now. It's not a perfect predictor, but it has led by several months for the last few years.

Usually you like to see the subsurface colder if an official La Nina is to emerge