Stormchaserchuck1

Here you go Larry https://x.com/WestSeaWx/status/1863471992156160321?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1863471992156160321|twgr^007f217bf200f801e3d5d3c535e0dc0db720024d|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheweatherforums.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2FWestSeaWx%2Fstatus%2F1863471992156160321

Definitely feeling like we are going to start to enter a warm pattern. There was a lot of stuff in the Summer pointing to a +NAO Winter, and that's starting to flash some signs in the long range. If that gets going with -PNA, it could get really warm around Christmas. I would even say there is probably a >50% chance that the Northeast finishes December near average to slightly above in temperatures. I was kind of surprised that the CPC went cold for December yesterday, because this 2 week below average stretch is the only time we have seen such a thing in the continental US in over a year!

Even for that range, it's a massive shift. They had an army of 1030's mb High pressures from western Canada to Maine 2 days ago.

When we make it Christmas without snow you'll be saying "Chuck's science was right".

Now the 0z GFS has it raining up to the US/Canada border for the Dec 8th storm. Quite a little model shift in the last 2 days.

I think they only had 1 fake hand off to Henry where Lamar ran it. Like I said, the new NFL playoff bracket makes a potential injury the greater variable. They should realistically be running Lamar 10+ times per game. And Lamar is still the front runner for MVP, 30 TDs and 3 INTs, 600+ yds rushing. I think this is a good team, the defense has gotten better as the season went on. It looks like they will end the season with 9/17 regular season games played being against playoff teams. 10/17 if TB makes it, and that doesn't even include the Bengals 2x and Cowboys who were tough at the time.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.0 4.5 3.8 0.9

0z Euro also has long range -PNA. Could end up being a near average December tempwise in the Northeast, maybe even slightly above average if things trend that way for later in December.

I'm not buying all this cold Winter stuff being posted about on Twitter because of this 2 week period. It's also surprising that the CPC went below average in the Mid Atlantic for December today. They seem mutable to the current pattern, too. We are in a strongly +EPO/-PNA regime, and there are Summer signal that rolls the NAO forward positive for the Winter (North Atlantic SSTA's). This 2 week cold is actually the first time such a thing has occurred for the continental US in over a year (below average)!

It looks like the GFS wants to go back to -PNA in the long range. Not currently supported by its ensembles, so we'll see how that goes.

563dm heights in DC out ahead of it.

Amazing how we had 1030s mb Highs on the US/Canada border yesterday, now today there is a sub-1000mb low in Wisconsin

We had a big time +NAO in '13-15. The NAO is really underestimated for its precip correlation. A really good Pacific, like we had in '13-15 and a super +NAO will no doubt lead to a pattern that is giving us snow every 3-4 days. Here's the Winter NAO precip correlation (default is positive) This is why the Dec 7 storm has a chance, it's not a suppressed pattern.

The Broncos currently make it at 7-5, and the runner ups are the Dolphins and Colts at 5-7. There are 3 wild card teams making it. So if the Dolphins or Colts win out (lol), they are still only 10-7. Broncos could finish 2-3 and still probably make it at 9-8. Yeah.. I was hoping they would pick up Daniel Jones. Lamar getting injured is season over. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't play completely serious (Lamar running for 1st downs) through the remaining games.

We'll see, I'm 90% sure that in that Hemispheric H5 pattern it's a rainstorm. Dec 7th is probably our chance in this cold pattern.

Upper latitude indexes dominate at that time range.. plus it's early Dec, we don't need a trough, we need blue.

Still thinking the pattern is too warm for the Dec 11th storm

The new playoff bracket in the NFL also makes a large part of the later half of the season's games irrelevant. Only the #1 seed gets a bye, and to make the playoffs the #8 seed right now is 5-7, so the Ravens can finish the year almost losing all of their games and still make the playoffs. But they can also win out and still have to play the 1st round with home field advantage being the only difference, besides the team played which really isn't a major difference. I would rather sit Lamar through these last 5 games, and have him healthy for the playoffs. Still have to play 1st round regardless. That's why they weren't playing serious vs the Steelers, they are the kind of team that would aim to get him hurt.

^Would be some snow threats too if that pattern holds, with the NAO positive (+NAO's are wetter). This is the pattern we were talking about in this thread, this Summer.. +NAO and -EPO have been correlating lately for the last 11 years.

With those high pressures it would normally be snowing down to the mountains in northern Georgia. Will be interesting to see if >1030s mb Highs down to the CONUS hold, as we haven't seen that pattern for a long time..

It could work though, as the Pacific is still favorable at that time and a -NAO dries everything out.. That h5 pattern actually favors sleet/fz rain storm In future model runs, if the NAO trends more positive, it could happen with a wetter storm, and a more -NAO could be a little drier. I like those low's undercutting a ridge in Alaska

Nice 1046mb High pressure in SE Canada on Dec 7th on the 18z GFS, for that storm threat. I'm actually surprised that surface temps aren't colder with such a strong High pressure to the north.. probably because the NAO is positive.

Just delayed a little bit Current modeling is trending toward a -PNA for mid-December.

Maybe you just shouldn't post on a science forum. I'm thankful for such an angelic presence on this Earth that people can be so stupid.

Long range GEFS has backed off a bit on the shift to warm it was showing a few days ago. Other models didn't agree, and the majority held, although the 2nd week of December is nowhere near as cold of a pattern as the next 7 days. I thought since natural gas was reacting, it could hold some weight, but that 18z GEFS run from 2 days ago is a warm anomaly right now. Poster - Blizzard of '93 pointed this out at the time. I still don't know that when storms get more organized, precip falling wouldn't be rain though, as we are near average temps in the long range on most current modeling.