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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now on models: The NAO is moderately negative for 84 hours, and that's about it (hrs 204-288)! Compared to some recent episodes, the Polar ridging doesn't look impressive, it barely even closes off any blocks. +250dm max (-epo/-ao) in February is not that much. The 50/50 low has trended much weaker for PD threat.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    A lot of ensemble variation still on the storm. Some miss it completely to the south. https://ibb.co/2880jhz Usually when there's a bombing low pressure, there is a wider range.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys did say that the Atlantic was warm.. in the south-central and Caribbean SSTs are where they usually are in July? Here's a 591dm High over Dominican Republic. https://ibb.co/bL6GYZQ ^That 50/50 low is a little north, and while it is a -AO, it may also be a neutral to + NAO. https://ibb.co/7z7z3FZ
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know.. I guess the -NAO isn't strong enough.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    The sad thing is, ultra favorable periods are the only ones producing.. This will be our 3rd round of strong -NAO. Anything without a -NAO/+PNA in place may finish the year "0".
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually somewhat big changes on the NAM short term.. I guess that's why everyone loves it so much https://ibb.co/G2rTd9d
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks good.. the Euro weeklies have had a very favorable high latitude pattern for US cold for several runs/a long time now.. Interesting to see things so far apart for March. Late February Stratosphere warming favors some -NAO conditions in March, too.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know.. let's pin it.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, when the two pieces (GOA low and 50/50) have greater -anomaly than the +blocking, it's an even better signal (like the map you posted).
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hopefully that block over Alaska holds the same strength in future runs.. https://ibb.co/LQxBQvy
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, those are the two biggest pieces in historical KU storms.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    We'll probably flip to -PNA quickly when the El Nino fades. Spring could go warmer..
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks good.. we have time. Upper latitude pattern is good.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it trended better at 104hr. https://ibb.co/7jkTsL9
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z NAM 500mb low is further north and faster vs 12z GFS at the same time.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    We finally got a west-based -NAO block.. but there is a piece of the PV in NW Canada retrograding to possibly encroach on Alaska. That could fill the country with mild air.. A few days before then we have a block over Alaska, so that's a pretty big difference in a short amount of time.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the PD period the best, It still looks good in the upper latitudes. The cold pattern is breaking down, maybe too fast for the 24th (on 12z GEFS).. We are already marginal for Presidents Day.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there could be some phasing between 2 jet streams. Temps are an issue right now though.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have to post this GFS snow map.. it's probably the most accurate with regards to future trends/the current situation and all.. the max this map ever got since the GFS started showing a hit is 4-6".
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know what all this GFS hate is. If you know what its biases are, it's easy to work with as a 1-model system.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    100dm is an amazing signal for something not even really related! Furthermore, my analog set is 1998-2023. I have 11 analogs out of the dataset.. so 11/25 years.. 41% of the total. To have a +7F average anomaly (+ and - .. more - years, for the global warming skew.. 7/11 are cold analogs) for 40% of a dataset in 25 years is amazing!
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is most accurate.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    The fortune is meant to reverse during the fortune of the unfortune.
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