snowman did do a good job of pointing out that it was a La Nina pattern in the Summer and Fall, being -AAM. This is a massive -PNA, a Strong La Nina pattern: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html
5 more lightning flashes about 30 minutes ago! With one, everything turned blue and green. There was loud thunder in the distance on]with two of them.
I have close to 4" on the grass, but on my porch it's barely 2".
Happy to see the radar still has greens from Martinsburg to Harrisburg. It's really wet/compact snow, but I have about 2.5" in the grass. And I had 2 flashes of lightning! I was deep in the woods walking and it lit everything up! That was about 30 minutes ago.
The storm over performed a little bit with radar, duration and all. The ratios were much lower than the snow maps posted leading up to the storm though.
I'm liking how the band is holding up near Harrisburg - It will probably end from the west, not the north. About 1" here, light to moderate snow. So pretty.
Models don't usually correct significantly when there is a PNA projected to be -2 to -3 for an extended period of time. Sometimes you will trend toward a better polar orientation (more -EPO), but that doesn't favor deep cold/snow, it just mutes the warmup.
I don't think JB moves NG.
There is a trend in models tonight for the N. Pacific ridge to be more -EPO. Let's see how that goes, it is the seasonal trend since Aug/Sept. If models keeping progressing from -PNA to -EPO this weekend, NG may open up on Sunday.
6" snow depth in southern PA on the 03z RAP
Models really moistened up tonight. 4" is looking more possible here, if I had to make a guess I'd say 3-3.5"
0z Hrr is north at Hr48, and has a wide area of precip
NWS going for 3" for the Baltimore area, assuming that it's a bit wetter than models. Winter Storm Watches issued for WV, southern Ohio, and SW PA. I wonder if we are next tomorrow?