Stormchaserchuck1

I agree with you. I actually did a study a few years back, finding that there was fluctuation year-to-year around patterns. I used this in 2022 to predict some things in advance actually. It's fluctuation around a base pattern, and last late Nov-Feb was "anomaly" of +PNA, so I think we have higher chances of fluxing back to -PNA over the same time next Winter, without major drivers like ENSO.. it's purely theoretical, but the method has been relevant for the past few years, for whatever reason. If we go 4,4,4,4 -2 one year, it's likely to go 4,4,4,4 6 over the same time in the following year.

West-Pacific index looks like this in the Wintertime It's the reason why the SE ridge has extended north to often link up with Greenland ridging, that and, NAO sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic has often been positive, which enforces a mid-latitude ridge from the US to Europe. Taking out all the indexes, which are fluctuation patterns, and what they have produced in the weight of one direction over another, the global warming is actually only about +3F in the Winter for the last 50 years. (Maybe it's more as a year-to-year multiplier recently as the trend is more exponential in recent years).

A lot of metrics weren't super positive for the 23-24 El Nino, but we did have major +SSTAs and the global precipitable water broke 15-16's record, as much as 20% greater than the #2 year on record.. so some parts of that El Nino were indeed strong.

Flossie is now the 2nd major hurricane of the year in the E. Pacific

Well we squeaked out a 9th straight month of +SOI.. 2024 10 4.09 2024 11 6.55 2024 12 10.84 2025 1 3.47 2025 2 7.67 2025 3 9.60 2025 4 4.73 2025 5 2.64 2025 6 1.71 July 2020 to Feb 2023 we had 32 straight months of +SOI.. so the long term phase here continues to be pretty solid positive. It's coinciding with the PDO over this time.

Flossie now expected to become Cat 3, the 2nd major of the year already.

Winter 7 months after +AO May-July.. not as bad as you would think. After +AO June-August

We are deep in a +AO cycle now. Here was the 0z EPS at 360hr

Already approaching 3000 CAPE near Baltimore.. I think the areas that got hit hard yesterday (Baltimore to Lancaster) won't do as well today as the places that didn't get hit as much yesterday..

It's pretty cool that they track cherry blossoms back 1000 years to year 1000, and it was actually getting later and later on average for 900 years (3 degree angle) until about 150 years ago.

I can't wait until this phase changes.. there is so much record H5 occurring in the mid-latitudes.. rarely over the NAO or EPO or WPO...

On June 28th, my N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor index is running ~+0.85 for that day Up box cold is +NAO, warm is -NAO. Down box cold is -NAO, warm is +NAO. ^Actually down is x1.00 and up is x0.65.

Yeah, and it cuts off half of the years. They could make it more understandable, I guess just be aware of a single dash before a list of years

It's minus the 1980s analogs. West coast was cold 10 years before the 91-20 average. Then it was drastically warm in the 5 year since then. That's the point.. the progression around the 91-20 base period in July.

I always get kind of lost looking back for the updated posts.. you might want to consider making a new post for every new data, projections and all. It's a little easier to navigate and we know when it's happening by seeing a new post in the thread. I need to come back for the rest of the year in this contest! So far I'm performing lower than I thought I should. I used to go with the least popular numbers, but the scoring isn't per place, it's only deviations from values, so it's better to not go against the grain.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.3 3.2

Really a great thunderstorm day! There were big lightning bolts for a long time close by, and I lost power for 3 hours. I was going to comment how earlier this morning it felt like Florida outside.. This thunderstorm season has been one of the better ones in several years. Everything turned green here in March and April.. I don't see any sign of drought. I realize we were below average for like 10 months in a row, but that has broken fast this Spring, in my opinion. Follows the trend that we have seen since 2002: Every time a developing drought occurs, we follow it with much above average precip in the eastern 1/2 of the US.

It's the same stuff for July pattern here.. West coast ridge, south of Aleutian island ridge.

The jet stream has been shifting north in general, and that is how it has been playing out. The differences on the West coast in July between the 1980s and now are extreme, more extreme than any ENSO signal or anything like that. It seem to be a one directional change. Although there were some differences in the July pattern 2016-2020. I'm just highlighting how it's enhancing the trend this year, which could possibly mean the same thing that we've been moving through recently, going forward. Phoenix is going to break 2013's high temp record today.. there's always a hope that something like 13-14 can develop, as that was part of the "new cycle"... really hot weather in the Southwest Summer-early Fall does correlate with some Winter -EPO/+PNA pattern.

Already on "F" in the eastern Pacific, and it's expected to become a Cat 2, ultimately heading just west of Baja California

July pattern matching the global trend, making recent Winter analogs more relevant to this coming Winter

It's more about the 91-20 average, and how we are trending compared to it. The first list of years was July 1981-1990. There is -3F on the West coast from that 10-year period. The second list of years was 2021-2024, there is +4F in the same spot.. I'm pointing out that in July there is a +5-6F trend on the west coast compared to 91-20 averages, and that July pattern per current modeling is setting up again, and strong. The 82-83 Strong El Nino is a [minus] in the composite, meaning opposite of it. And 23-24 is [plus], but even in Strong El Nino's, I'm pointing out that the July trend is actually stronger than what a Strong El Nino has produced. It's a point about about the recent global pattern and consistencies from year to year. If July is verifying, it means that recent previous Winter trends are probably more relevant this coming Winter.

Good post. Very interesting. It looks like a phase started in 2013 with the EA. I have said many times that I started noticing an Atlantic-Pacific correlation in 2013, where cold season -NAO's were coinciding with more -PNA/+EPO and +NAO's were coinciding with more +PNA/-EPO. I theorized that it has something to do with the Summer Arctic ice melt, and us not breaking through 2007-2012 levels relative to the global warming. It's like the NAO is "capped" and the potential energy is spilling into other parts of the globe (just my theory). Also 1998 was a big jump up in the EA and that is exactly when the -PDO phase started. The most linear chart I have ever seen, with less flux, is Germany winter snowfall from 50-60 years ago to present. The line almost fits a perfect -30 degree angle. I wonder if the EA index will ever have a negative phase, it appears to be at highest levels all time in 23-24. Upper latitudes should match mid-latitude warming, but that hasn't happened so much lately. AO and NAO and EPO blocks were still higher in the 50s, 60s, 80s, etc. While we keep seeing record breaking ridging 30-50N. I think the NAO not going to record high levels in its blocks is allowing the SE ridge to occur underneath of it, and ridging in Europe, because the base pattern should favor more extreme upper latitude blocks and it's not occurring, if that makes any sense.

July has been a big trend month around the 91-20 average. The West coast has been extreme. Here is July 81-90 vs 91-20, on the front half of the trend Now here's 2021-on vs the 91-20 average That's a +5-6F difference in the West coast ridge in July, the most unanomalous month of the year. 0z EPS through the first half of July has the same pattern occurring. Following Winters around the same base period (91-20) [minus 81-90, plus 21-25] look like this, which is relevant because the same global trend in the July pattern is likely to occur this year

Would you take them 1/6.5? I agree that potential injuries are the greatest variable to them not performing on top of the league.