Stormchaserchuck1

If we keep the warm water temperatures up, it should be getting more active. About a month ago the -PDO region south of the Aleutian islands hit +5c anomalies, which made the Atlantic record temperatures look small in comparison. I don't see why the warming trend through the years shouldn't continue.. at some point, there will be an attempt to go back to -AMO,.. but for the next few years the -PDO and +AMO which are long term states, and take some time to wane being as they are near their peaks, should keep the Atlantic active.

Probably, it's tough to say. Average activity is still increasing, as is the AMO.

Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years (~20%)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. (-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

I have the wonder if El Nino's run the risk of being more powerful, if Stronger events are not producing the same results as they did several decades ago. I said this with the -NAO too, since 2019 we have seen a ridge in the mid-latitudes under Greenland ridging/blocking, almost every time, running up the east coast, and you have to wonder if the more natural state is a stronger Greenland block. It seems that the "cap" is just streaming everything up north, and the end result is more mid-latitude ridging, that appears as a -PNA or SE ridge, under a less volatile system. If you look at the maps of Stronger El Nino events past to now, (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24), you will see a constant degradation in the North Pacific low area. That could be a product of not maxing out the potential vs less correlated ENSO events. I always say that the natural state of this Earth is more chaotic than we believe with running records of everything.

The La Nina might not be a multi-year event. La Nina years favor more activity than non-La Nina years.

I kind of think it takes some time for SSTs to saturate. Below the surface it's probably not as warm as immediately on the surface. If we sustain these temperatures for the next 1-3 years, hurricanes could see an uptick, but it might be too early to make a huge major difference this year. If SSTs were really as warm in January as they usually are in July, we probably would have seen a storm by now..

Nice difference a year makes. I don't see how a pattern like that would be possible this year (two -4 areas). It looked like we were headed for a -NAO pattern early in the month, but that didn't hold. The last 6 full months: https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV

Decadal research through the 1900s does show that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge patterns. -AMO https://ibb.co/bR3LvKW +AMO https://ibb.co/KctZCPm -AMO https://ibb.co/wKX4YCC +AMO https://ibb.co/sFSwm0j

I'm talking about a North Pacific Ocean High pressure. CPC is wacky with their measurement, it doesn't include the constant pattern. Even +EPO could have a higher N. Pacific High correlation than what they are calling RNA in those maps.

Weekend rule is crazy! I remember in the early 2000s it was 30-40% more likely to rain on the weekend for some time. Would love to see some long term stats vs mathematical anomalies.

Overall jet stream has shifted north, It effects us differently in different seasons. That stuff happening again screams ridge up into NE this Winter imo, as the base state. We would need a -EPO to break it. -NAO probably won't be able to do it.

March 2023 too, we had a -NAO and -EPO for some time. It amounted to nothing. I think later in the -PNA decadal phase a SE ridge becomes more constant vs early in the cycle. That's something I think we could batteling again this Winter, even if the NAO goes negative.

I do think we can almost rule Strong La Nina out. Subsurface though continues to favor possibly a Moderate La Nina, at the very least Weak. There is major global ocean warming this year, and I was wondering if that would spill over into ENSO.. it looks like it might. MEI/RONI might be a better gauge for effects this year, although it's hard to separate out the PDO.

I think you have done great the last 2 years, but don't fall in the trap of thinking "this is X std's above normal so it has to even out". I think there is a very clear reason for the +WPO of late, being the La Nina state in the Pacific since about 1998 (leading to -PDO conditions). The -WPO/-EPO Winters have been more +pdo during that time. The real trend is how the RNA of late has been gaining steam, part of that being how we saw a N. Pacific High most of the time in a Strong El Nino this past Winter, which only happened in 65-66 and 72-73, at the peak of that -pdo cycle. It does open the door for -NAO potential though, I think. You were the only that originally pointed out the PDO has a higher correlation: https://ibb.co/hWtdb2W +0.6 correlation over the Deep South! https://ibb.co/kyH3kzd +0.35 peak correlation

If I had to venture a guess for the upcoming Winter right now, it would look like this. https://ibb.co/4PqH6ZK

High pressure patterns in the SW, US also lead +EPO/WPO. So far it looks like this Summer is going to feature High pressure there. That has been the trend since about 1995..

I don't think the WPO-EPO is really going to flip until the PDO flips. Maybe it will lead it though? History says we should be near the time-shift of peaking/declining PDO phase.

And the windchill was -35F in Kansas City for the Chiefs home playoff game in January! Imagine the potential we are running into, if that was the warmest Winter on record.

You wouldn't hate this in the Wintertime 1aa (6) — Freeimage.host I have a feeling it's a passing trend though, that will amplify the -PNA in the Wintertime. A lot of times -NAO Summer do beget -NAO Winter's, though

Really strong -NAO for 1st half of June on today's 12z GFS ensembles.. it's crazy how same patterns follow trend.. when Spring was cooler, they could have told you higher likelihood for -NAO and cooler June. Also, since the March 2012 heat wave, our Springs have been cool. This trend has also been consistent. Summers don't warm up much above average lately, and Fall is very above average (since ~2010). July has been our thunderstorm month.

According to todays 12z GFS ensembles, this may be one of the more -NAO June's on record. Permanent, big ridge over Greenland and the Davis Strait is what I have in mind for -NAO, not some small closed off blocking area (like we had late March/early April).

A lot of high temperature records from the late 1800s/early 1900s still stand.. I'm surprised reading the transcripts from settlers in the 1700s, about Winter weather that is not much different from today. It's obviously trended warmer, but they really had some warm Winters back then too. I think the threat is always there for some extreme flux, given the two polar blocking regions are land, Greenland and Alaska. remember that KC Chiefs playoff game this year when the windchill was -35F south in latitude of here?

Here we go with highs suppose to get into the 120s in Death Valley 7-Day Forecast 35.99N 116.75W (weather.gov) Hadley Cell expansion, which has given us a ridge in the Winter lately is partially connected to what happens in the SW, US, and the drought they have seen there since 1995. For colder periods this Winter, I don't want to see a hot/dry Summer there..

Actually, just speaking from personal observation, it's the Sun. Does higher CO2 deplete the ozone to make the sun shine brighter to ground heat?

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.0, +0.2, -0.3, -0.5, +0.8, +1.0, +1.8, +1.6, +0.7