Stormchaserchuck1

GFS ensemble mean now pinches off a 594dm ridge over the Aleutian islands of Alaska July 5-6.. should be record breaking if it verifies. Looking like a very hot July in the N. Pacific, which is usually has something to do with La Nina impacting.. Subsurface continues to look like a Weak Nina though

38% of the way through it's +0.05.. I do think we could have some -NAO periods this Winter, but that's because it's had such a big correlation to the -PNA in the last 11 years. If the central-Atlantic warmth migrates north to off the coast of New Foundland though, it could run the index more positive since it runs out to Aug-Sept, and +TNA often migrates to +AMO from the Winter to that time... Edit: We are really blasting this thing + right now. https://ibb.co/styNwm6 I was looking at the 5/1-6/25 composite.

Subsurface has a higher correlation to the N. Pacific pattern than ONI, RONI, Nino 1, 2, 3.. but since 1999 the relative value (RONI) has correlated more with the Hadley Cell/Mid-latitude Cell, by even as much as -0.5/6 difference (ex: ONI is -0.6, global pattern acts like it's -1.2).

shipping aerosols? lol

Why do you think Strong El Nino's are followed by 3+ years of La Nina's? Even the strongest relative La Nina (1988-89), was followed by 7/8 years of +ENSO conditions. There seems to be a reversal that is more powerful than the actual event. At least since satellite era ~1940s.

Strongest correlation, believe it or not, to a May - July RNA that should be record breaking, is a -NAO signal for Winter [map is default positive so neg PNA is opposite correlation] I've been saying that -NAO/-PNA or +EPO and +NAO/+PNA or -EPO is correlating: since 2013, and more so since 2019 (correlation is about 0.40, or 70%), so this fits if we are to expect a -PNA this Winter... here's the regression

Still just a monster N. Pacific ridge here.. subtropical jet making it up to Alaska https://ibb.co/q7ggFZy Then hr384 on the ensemble mean has another round of -PNA https://ibb.co/88Cpx49 My guess is that subsurface-ENSO will strengthen cold anomalies during this time in July. They are pretty weak right now, looking like a Weak or low-end Moderate surface La Nina peak.

This 25-year period from 1998 to 2024, and still ongoing.. is an interesting case study for the La Nina-global-pattern that has taken hold. The Hadley Cell reaction, both in the northern and southern hemisphere's is record breaking. Not a coincidence it's north and south of Nino 3.4, which is the strongest ENSO region for effect. I would guess it has something to do with the Sun and astronomy. I was thinking the Solar Minimum that we were going through 2000-2022 had something to do with it, but it seems to be continuing through recent sun spikes and Aura's making it far south. It is also possible that the 1997 El Nino event was so extreme, that an attempt to not have more extreme "global warming" events was made, and that could also explain why every Strong Nino is followed by 3+ years of La Nina's since the satellite era.. I don't know..

The GFS ensemble mean currently has a >+250dm Aleutian island ridge for July 5-6. That is the average of all ensembles, which is a ridiculous size ridge for the middle of Summer. If it verifies, it will be a continuation of the May -PNA state that was record breaking.. All these things roll forward to a warm Fall in the eastern 1/2 of the US, as the Fall is the season where the PDO has the strongest correlation with the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and High pressure in the N. Pacific ocean during the Spring and Summer strengthens the -PDO leading up to that time..

If you guys want something that you can use in a tangible way.. try the research for yourself. Search La Nina/+QBO and El Nino/-QBO impact on the cold season (Nov-March) 10mb heights. You will see a strong correlation there. It doesn't go "X is QBO, cold in seattle, warm in atlanta", it's an upper atmosphere wind index, so it's more about how 10mb heights impact the 500mb level. When there is a - height at 10mb, it has +0day correlation to +AO (negative 500mb heights over the Arctic Circle). When there is a + height at 10mb, it correlates from +10-45 days to -AO, depending when in the cold season it happens. In November, the correlation is +45 days (+10mb +45 days = -AO). In March, it's +10 days. the time lag is in between those two depending how close to early or late Winter we are. I found a very linear correlation there. So +QBO/La Nina (I'm going to say central-subsurface cold at -200m is "La Nina") favor this pattern for the Winter. The Stronger the La Nina and +QBO, the higher the likelihood, and the weaker the La Nina, the lower the likelihood:

Now models have a strong -PNA starting the first day of July. It's quite a signal for this far out, being in Summer, with shorter wavelengths and all.. 12z GEFS extended looks like that May stuff in the north pacific repeating. I've always said that the ENSO subsurface correlates greater to the N. Pacific pattern than surface SSTs, OLR, 850mb winds, etc. This March-July is looking like a good example of that in action: Subsurface has been decently negative. https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif I would even call it a La Nina or El Nino event based just on what's going on with the subsurface. You kind of saw this too last year when the Strong El Nino at the surface never exceeded subsurface anomalies of +3-5c, and the actual effects of the event in the N. Hemisphere pattern were weaker.

The West had several late season snows. I've been surprised by this because it seems like the Hadley Cell has expanded.. they have gotten very anomalous patterns at times, it snowed in Denver on 9-9-2020. I think it's just a really -PDO time, which is more likely because of a long term La Nina decadal state. I said before our problems with snow lately is probably 70/30 the RNA vs global warming

It actually was a pretty warm pattern though That heat wave in Mexico rolls forward to some pretty warm analogs for the eastern 1/2 of the US through the following Fall/Winter. Usually the warmer than average conditions in the East start in September.

Didn't give us our classic SE ridge though I'm a little surprised by the strength of that N. Pacific High pressure.. models never had anything really major in the MR/LR.

QBO rose in May to -6.52 from -23.42 in April. It's looking very likely that this will be a +QBO Winter, making ENSO state a little more sensitive to possible +AO conditions if a stronger La Nina prevails. QBO will probably turn positive in the next few months, and they run in 10+ month cycles.

Solar Max has a slight El Nino correlation, but it's less than +0.1 I think the last Strong Nina during Solar max happened 1998-2000.

3-4 years after a Strong El Nino (23-24), we see a tendency for Positive, over Negative, ENSO events. 6/16 (39%) of the years were El Nino. 7/16 (43%) of the years were Neutral. 3/16 (18%) of the years were La Nina. 2/3 of the La Nina's were after switch-overs right after the Strong El Nino's to Strong La Nina's (-2.0, -1.6). The 1 year that was a La Nina during the +3-4 year time, was the anomalous event of 95-96, where the subsurface was Neutral for the event, and the N. Pacific held a strong +PNA. So, if this La Nina doesn't go high-moderate or Strong, we may have a greater than average chance to have a positive-ENSO conditions for 26-27 and 27-28, than negative-ENSO. Year +5 was 4/7 El Nino's, 2/7 Neutral, and 1/7 La Nina. So +3-5 years after a Strong El Nino, we have 10/23 El Nino's, 9/23 Neutral, and 4/23 La Nina's.

This is a strong +NAO for the next 7 days. It's the first time I've seen solid negative anomalies at 500mb in a while. I have to wonder if recent sun spikes are fueling the +nao, because it is a bit of an anomaly in the larger picture. Models also didn't pick up on it in the long range, only when it came close to happening recently. We have seen NAO's trend more + in shorter modeled time periods, since the Winter.

EPO's run in 7-12 day patterns, and I kind of think we are due for some -EPO patterns. In 99-00 we had that Jan 25 storm that gave us 20" in the midst of a Strong La Nina and a very warm Winter, so yeah things can time right and we can get average snowfall, It will usually happen with a -EPO or +PNA. With that being said, they haven't seen a flake of snow in Raleigh, NC for 1100 days. And Boston hasn't seen a 4" storm in almost 3 years. The jet stream is definitely lifting north for the last decade, and I think that has a lot to do with the Pacific La Nina cycle we are in, resulting in -PDO. I think what they normally see in NC/SC is what we are in right now, and that doesn't really show signs of changing, at least not soon. Watch the SW, US too, when they get troughs/rain, we are more favorable for Winter weather a few years later, vs hot/dry there, which usually spreads east over time.. Maybe when the Atlantic starts switching back to -AMO and the PDO changes as well we will get more favorable.. they both should be near their decadal cycle peaks right now. I think what we are in right now is more RNA/+AMO vs what they would call global warming. maybe like 70/30

May QBO rose to -6.5, from -23.4 in April. Since it runs in positive/negative 10+ month period cycles, that gives us about a >92% chance of having a +QBO Winter. QBO/La Nina strengthens the 10mb polar vortex, giving higher tendency for +AO conditions at the surface. Because of this coupling with La Nina, the ENSO state for the Winter is more sensitive than normal for above or below normal temperature conditions. The PDO has actually a greater temperature correlation over the Mid Atlantic region than ENSO does. With -PDO still running strong, making down to -3 last month, it's very likely that we will have a -PDO Winter. The fact that a growing La Nina is occurring strengthens this idea. It usually goes in the direction of ENSO. Solar Max is occurring with near peak conditions currently underway. Solar Max correlates with the NAO at +0.3 (~30% chance for +NAO Winter vs -NAO). The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948-49, 52-53, 90-91, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00, 2001-02, 05-06, 11-12, 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23. (-) years: 1970-71, 77-78, 78-79, 81-82, 83-84, 92-93.] Mexico saw a major heat wave in May. The roll forward of years matching this, show that the heat develops across the US from the Rockies to Midwest July-August, then in September it rolls east, with above average conditions usually occurring through the following Fall and Winter (Sept-Mar). Right now I have about 85-90% confidence that we will see an above average temperature Winter (DJFM) vs the 30-year average.

Yeah, I have correlated May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTs with the following Winters NAO (DJFM), at a 0.54 standard deviation. That SD is 9-9 since I incepted the thing in 2005. The current index is Neutral, with 30% of the time period complete, it's like -0.05 for the Winter's NAO right now.

The chances are definitely higher for that outcome. La Nina's aren't so bad for you guys.. there is a near "0" correlation with temps, going back to 1948, using that variable alone. -PDO's are what's bad as it has near a +0.3 correlation with warmer temps. Solar Max correlates with +NAO, which is a warmer pattern, too, although that connection is not exact. If we go +QBO, that coupled with La Nina enhances +AO conditions, making that a bad pattern for you, vs La Nina's that can be a good pattern, when not coupled with +QBO. The roll forward research is showing a pretty strong signal though. It's not surprising because there is more of a "flat global jet, lifted north" right now, so you would think the same kind of thing would continue, with no major fluctuations occurring in the pattern lately.

The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. (-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

They sure are getting some late season snows in the West this year. Don't forget 9-9-2020, it snowed down to Denver and Arizona.

El Nino's have been quiet.. even last year there wasn't any Caribbean activity. Only 1 Moderate+ El Nino hurricane season since 1950 had more than 12 Named Storms (last year).