Stormchaserchuck1

-PNA Winter of 72-73 had a cold subsurface too.

Subsurface was also nowhere near the surface last year.

Yeah, but the MEI uses OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds.. I've compared them all and still find subsurface temps pure have the greatest effect.

Nino 4 functions as a continuum. It moves up or down over several years, vs the east region which are more in flux year-to-year. The major warming last year is taking a long time to change, and the global oceans are record warm, and the SOI hasn't topped +3 monthly since Apr 2023. So surface factors are holding onto warm anomalies. I found the greatest correlation to ENSO effects is about 100-220m below the surface. Last year the El Nino started east-based and took a while to shift to west-based closer to the Winter. The actual pattern acted like it was an east-based El Nino through the entire event so take that for what it's worth.. the near-surface holding onto warm anomalies is more for the western surface ENSO region vs eastern regions..

The atmospheric response is because the subsurface is La Nina. I can't stress this enough. The discovery is an amazing leap forward! 95-96 was a +PNA Winter. +PNA is not a function of La Nina. But the subsurface for 95-96 was not La Nina, it was ENSO Neutral: 00-01 was another +PNA Winter. Subsurface this year was also Neutral in the central ENSO region, not La Nina: You can look it all up here. https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ I made an index once of subsurface vs surface and found 25% higher correlation to the N. Pacific pattern, going back to 1979.

Here is 2008-2022 40% of those Winters were warm, but cold weather was sitting in the Upper Midwest for a while there..

At least he offers an alternative view.. I get what he's saying, it doesn't seem like locally especially with not super hot Summers, like the trend is that significant. Wintertime temps in the 50s is because of ridging and warm fronts, you can always tell that severe cold is always possible. It just hasn't been able to dig since the late-1970s. I "feel" it as a wave, and this wave is warm. Maybe the ultimate thing is a super warm endless wave, but there a lot of snowless years recorded in the old journals from the 1700s and 1800s, and that's really not that far off from what's going on now, less than I would think..

Minneapolis had 5 cold Winters 2018-2022: I thought they were due for some warmer Winters: I'm not sure that streak is over.. if anything, I think they are "due" to continue going warmer for the next few years, if you look at the longer decadal trend.

Yes, it's due to the La Nina-like pattern that has dominated for the last 25 years. High pressure in the N. Pacific has kept the normally cold coastal waters cooler than average, although I'm surprised SSTs are actually below normal for that whole 25-year period, considering everything that has been happening globally.

It could also be a function of west vs east-based. This one so far is east-based It may be hard to cool Nino 4 ultimately, since last year it hit record warmest, and Gawx and raindancewx have been posting stuff about a strong general warming trend there.

Since 1997, ONI >1.0 peak (14 examples) vs Weak ONI peak, 0.5-0.9 (8 examples) Moderate-Strong ONI Weak ONI

Hard to believe the surface is going to stay Neutral with this in the subsurface.. Although the global warming of oceans skew is so high right now.. it's hard imagine a -1c occurring at the surface anywhere.. We are also "sitting" in the same global patterns as the last 26-29 years

You're right, it was 2006-2007 because I landed a job after that. Same methods apply now and have matched the historical standard deviation in real time over the last 15 years. Plus things like ENSO/QBO, which really correlate to 10mb conditions over the cold weather season. Subsurface ENSO being much greater than SSTs...

We had a big New Foundland warm pool that year, and -PDO configuration 2005 was slight -NAO SST signal. I don't think I would have done it in that condition.. but that was still a warm Winter after a super active Atlantic. Dec had a real nice cold burst, but that had a lot to do with -QBO that was analogous to 1989 going into the year.

It was for 2005-2006. We had a super cold Dec 2-3 weeks, then Jan-Feb was the warmest I think up to that time. I still think there is more precipitable water around to do higher coastal snow events if things line up right.

Bad omen though. It's along the same lines of no more Alberta clippers. The land-cold pattern hits a south wind more easily along the Northeast region. We are seeing this especially in NYC's warmer than average streak, which is anomalous even to global warming.

I don't think a small cyclone near South America will change the N. American Winter that much. The correlation is colder waters from upwelling in the N. Atlantic, especially in Sept. But 2005 is starting to be a good analog.. remember when I went for the warmest Winter lol. We had 28 storms that year. It was the 7th warmest Winter. There was a huge N. Atlantic SST +NAO signal that Summer season. We've had some cold bursts lately.. remember when Kansas City hit -35F wind chill for Chiefs home playoff game. -EPO can still do it.. but for that I think you need a Weaker or nonexistent La Nina. I use the subsurface, and it's in Moderate La Nina range.

Pacific ocean on the West coast has actually been colder than normal since 1999.

I don't think we are going to so easily be better than last Winter, although when you have almost nothing it's difficult to do better.. We had some good -AO periods last Winter, and when the NAO went + in late January, Washington DC easily warmed up to 80 degrees, making it the first time that ever happened late Nov - late February. Now with the N. Atlantic SSTs warming rapidly over the lagged NAO predictor area, and QBO turning positive, it's looking like there is much higher likelihood this will be +NAO Winter. The recent heat wave in the northeast, US that happened a week ago spiked when the NAO briefly went positive, and I am seeing this on MR models again.. so +NAO periods have been going very warm since the start of 2024.

Data since 1948 shows it has a high probability of continuing through the Fall and Winter. In the CONUS, we are likely going to have a record warm Dec - July. I am waiting for the CDC to update the June map, but Dec-May looked like this: December to July analogs.. 30 top analogs: So 30 analogs is 40% of the whole dataset, since 1948 (30/75), so realistically a "normal" signal rolled forward should be +1-2F max areas. But what history shows is a higher correlation going forward! The following Fall (Sept-Nov) December is the odd month Then the following Winter (Jan-Mar). Remember this is a mix of 30 years. 30/75. Look at the scale Whole period.. September through March, +3-4 anomalies for a 7-month span, covering 30-years and 40% of the total dataset!

-5c popping in the central ENSO-subsurface. It's made a nice drop the last few days. I still contest there is a direct no-time correlation between subsurface region and the N. Pacific pattern. LR models showing N. Pacific ridge and US-based ridge definitely looks like La Nina.

Also looking like a real nice heat ridge setting up on LR models for the end of July. CPC thinks we will start to see widespread drought by late Summer

Precip is suppose to be above normal for July. Let's see if we can get some good boomers.. I agree though, this season so far has sucked. Easily one of the worst. I've only seen distant CC lightning.

I'm just speaking from personal experience. The last few years matched again what I saw as a kid. The sky has though, in the last 2-3 years maintained a purple and pink tint that I didn't see before. Nice pictures by the way. I love looking at them.

Hopefully we'll match last July's thunderstorm season. It started June 24th last year. This year hasn't quite been the same so far. There has been a trend over the years for our severe weather to occur from the Spring to the Summer. I always contend that heat is our greatest variable.