Stormchaserchuck1

Since the AMO turned + in the Atlantic mid-latitudes, the PDO has had a tendency toward negative. In the last few years, we hit -3 on the monthly, which was the strongest -PDO since 1954. With AMO still roaring positive and now a La Nina developing, it's really difficult for the PDO to go negative for the Winter.. we needed the Strong Nino to do that job, and we had one the highest relative -PDO/ENSO Winter's on record. It may take quite a few years to go back to true positive, although a 1-2 year blip like 2013-15 isn't impossible.

18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA pattern starting around May 17th. Hard to say that it will sustain, but sometimes when it starts and we are cooler on the EC, the later part of the -PNA pattern is above average to way above average.. something to look for if it sustains into June. I've done some research linking ENSO subsurface with the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time, but in the age of weather derivatives it's harder to say if that is the reason for the correlation (my opinion).

Nice job Ray.. I don't agree that the PNA was +0.55 for the Winter.. there was an Aleutian High most of the time, and +EPO/+WPO. I think their measurement runs into the EPO domain, counting Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I see it as a -PNA Winter, especially since the North America part included a SE ridge and NW trough. The one time the EC got cold in January was because of -NAO.

I'm surprised you aren't mentioning La Nina. It's developing pretty quickly, with < -4c anomalies in the subsurface, and a -2c pool surfacing in Nino 3.

Here is the historical Solar Flux correlation with Dec-Feb US temperature (we are going to be at the + side of this next Winter). https://ibb.co/z7d6kbD

Kind of odd that we are getting this cold over the next few days with +EPO (correlation is opposite). https://ibb.co/TtxMtMj Fits my theory that we are getting more cold with +NAO's these days than -NAO's. For the upper latitude pattern, cold air seems to be going more N->S, than W->E. This has been the case since 2013, and more so since 2019.

Again, the strong -PNA conditions being shown by LR models support a warmer end to May https://ibb.co/F7ZCqDD (map default is positive, so -PNA is opposite)

We also now have a pretty strong cold pool of water developing in Nino 3. These deep-pocket starts usually precede Moderate+ events. https://ibb.co/qspXSjq

Not to hype this season further because there are a lot of factors that involve tropical cyclones: African dust, etc, and for the longest time of several decades we did average in the Atlantic 9NS/year. But last year we did see 20 named storms in Strong El Nino. That blew out previous El Nino stats, for all El Nino's (Weak-Mod-Strong): TS Hurr MH 1951 12 8 3 1953 14 7 3 1957 8 3 2 1963 10 7 3 1965 10 4 1 1968 9 5 0 1969 18 12 3 1972 7 3 0 1976 10 6 2 1977 6 5 1 1979 9 6 2 1982 6 2 1 1986 6 4 0 1987 7 3 1 1991 8 4 2 1994 7 3 0 1997 8 3 1 2002 12 4 2 2004 15 9 6 2006 10 5 2 2009 9 3 2 2014 8 6 2 2015 11 4 2 2018 15 8 2 2023 20 7 3 1953, 1969, 2004, and 2018 were all Weak El Nino's. So the record for Moderate+ El Nino's before last year was 12 named storms (1948-2022). The warmer water temperatures, which were a leap above previous years, did play a role last year.

Here's another view of that deep cold pocket developing in Nino 3. https://ibb.co/qspXSjq

Since I moved back east from the west coast in 2017, we have yet to have 1 normal snowfall Winter.

I've been watching the Great Falls, Montana radar, and they are getting hit hard! Says it's 37 degrees, but that's really heavy snow if it's cold enough.

Pocket of -2c in Nino 3. https://ibb.co/HCT4knc

We have been lucky with cooler Summers over the last few years/decades. You have to think that drier/hotter conditions will eventually prevail.

Anyone know how to make images appear on this board?

23/13/6

Just my own personal opinion. The global temperature did spike when there weren't so many trails over the last few years.

Strong Aleutian High pressure now projected to begin around May 15th (18z GEFS). The ensemble mean is +250dm. May could finish the month above average/somewhat hot if that verifies.

Powerful Aleutian High pressure (-PNA) now projected May 15-22+. There could be more subsurface ENSO cooling during that time if it verifies.

Really some big warming lately in the western N. Pacific, near Japan, enhancing the -PDO https://ibb.co/qDByVWQ

Chemtrails are so that the temperature stays a little cooler. It's fear control.

Nice -PNA [-PDO] pattern for the next 15 days (12z GEFS). Maybe the La Nina is kicking into gear.. don't be surprised if temps bust too low over the next 2 weeks.

This Winter has probably the strongest predictive signal from this range, given the expectation of oncoming La Nina (maybe Moderate strength), -PDO which has recently strengthened its -1 standing, probable +QBO, so La Nina/+QBO combo, which favors a stronger Winter 10mb Polar Vortex (we saw this combo in 22-23) - the correlation is +AO, recent global temperature high temperatures and record highs. And +AMO has a slight SE-ridge correlation, the +AMO cycle is still peaking positive. Some have correlated the part of the solar cycle approaching the solar max with warmer temperatures, but I have found a weak correlation there.. On the other side, when I locally barely get out of the 40s on an early May day (yesterday), it's hard to imagine the potential isn't there for some Wintertime cold. Also, the -PNA has been weak so far in this La Nina cycle, and nothing like what we saw 2020-2023. ENSO has had, in my opinion, a higher than average correlation with the PNA over the last few decades, and we aren't going to see a fixed Wintertime PNA state 85% of the time like we have seen 1950-2020, given +ENSO. Last year the PNA was not really correlating with Stronger El Nino, and this carried over into the Wintertime.. something to watch..

It's not even that anything really special is happening.. The way we are easily beating these records since that 80* in January is pretty amazing. I think we on a macro-level are entering a time with less cloud cover, so maybe that's contributing, or will contribute in the future.. there was a time in February this year where we went 24/28 days with no clouds.

I can see a warm Winter easily verifying. We need a major -EPO to break through, and right now there are no signs of that in the global pattern evolution: it's a little more stagnant, allowing things like the -PDO to impact, and that has a slight +epo correlation.