Stormchaserchuck1

I think you guys are overestimating hurricanes.. the thermocline is where real value is, for pattern effect. That lies 100-250meters below the surface, and hurricanes rarely reach that far in depth of spinning up the oceans.

That 604dm ridge is so impressive! We are still 2 weeks from the hottest point of the year, and the Atlantic broke it by 4dm! I'm saying.. the jet stream is really lifting north right now. I always thought that the standard deviation of blocks over Alaska, Greenland, and the Arctic would match the general warming that is happening, but over the last few years they have acted "capped". As long as we only max out near previous record in those locations, the mid-latitudes will torch.

I don't know.. my grass is always green. 20 years ago there were brown spots that have since filled in.

Precip has been way above average for the last 22 years.. not 1 moderate drought. The odds of that happening are probably 1/10, if not 1/20

I remember reading something about recurves being the biggest variable, they were connecting it with the NAO. I think you need a really neutral climate for such a thing to occur.

I would think if we develop any kind of drought it will increase our risk for tropical cyclones. For the last 10-20 years, just about everytime we have started to go drier, it has rained much greater than the leading dry period. I've seen it happen 25/25 times lately. We haven't had a true drought since 2002, and hurricane hits on the SE coast have been way below average during that time..

Low pressure at 500mb over Alaska always busts warm locally.

I don't see why Beryl ACE 36 is going to effect the Winter.. It tracked very far south in July. The correlation is turning up N. Atlantic waters late Summer/early Fall, but even that is a very, very small thing. Usually it's the larger pattern producing X effects (cyclones) that has the weight/correlation, but +AMO/-PDO/La Nina, which is why it's likely going to be a high ACE year, is not really a cold Winter composite. Humans can be a variable too though, I guess. I noticed changes in the weather pattern when Beryl was hitting..

Finally the June map on Climate Divison data updated Dec-Jun 2023-4 This might be the warmest Dec-Jun on record for the CONUS. July is very above average month. Besides the heat that is ongoing now in the East and West, here is the forecast for the end of the month: But it hasn't been an organic warm period, we've had a +EPO/+NAO in the upper latitudes, which matches analogs of the past, and that is usually the best way we get country-wide heat. Here are 30 analogs that I came up with for Dec-July: The following Winter season (Dec-Feb): (scale is the same lol.. one is hand picked, the other is +6-14 months)

+NAO in January also favors country-wide warmth A lot of these models just take what's happening and initialize it out.. You probably have to pay to get really good products. 5 +NAO periods since January, so now all the seasonal models have +NAO. I would guess their forecasting accuracy for that specific thing is not that high. That's why I like to look at Natural Gas futures primarily. They crushed the Euro last Winter.

Another day with highs in the upper 80s in Florida. I left a few days before the June heat wave began. Talk about good timing. For all the talk about how warm Atlantic SSTs are, they are still not really comparable to all the ridging happening up north and on the West Coast. Maybe the AMO is not decadal, and it's just a reflection of warmer global conditions..

Told you guys it would bust warmer.. +EPO patterns are often underestimated on medium range models, especially when coupled with +NAO. As long as it doesn't rain, low pressure over Alaska keeps the ridge progressing higher and higher shorter term..

Subsurface was turning positive pretty early in 2023: In the central-ENSO region (west-based) March-June 2023 was greater positive than even most of the El Nino event. We have a colder subsurface this year, although it is starting to warm again in the last few days. Look at this -PNA though since the central-subsurface went cold in March this year This is while we've had +Neutral at the surface.

This region has the highest correlation to Winter NAO Now we are going to be warming this further in the next few days with a record breaking ridge developing over the eastern part of the box: We'll be looking at a pretty high index reading by mid-July.

SSTs also aren't super above average in the tropics like they were a few months ago.. as the averages climbed, the deviation evened out a bit. All the heat is migrating to the N. Atlantic, where a strong High pressure is suppose to set up for the next few weeks continuing the warmth there..

That area in the Atlantic where the max ridge is going to occur actually has a strong correlation to the following Winters NAO (warm SSTs there in the Summer lead +NAO Winters).

July is going to be a very warm month for the CONUS. This is going to make Dec-July one of the warmest on record, if not the warmest for the lower 48. Roll forward of 30 top analogs going back to 1948 (which is 40% of the dataset) shows a ridiculous strong signal for the following September through March: +3-4F anomalies over a 7-month period, covering 40% of the dataset is pretty ridiculous signal. Law of averages says it should be ~+1F (since I am using + and - years, somewhat muting the overall warming trend). I guess here locally continuum trumps. I've been waiting for the June map to update, once it does ill post comparison to what we have seen vs analogs used above.

Climate models have a heavy ENSO bias.. they didn't estimate that the subsurface would cool so much going into the Winter last year. I agree with what they are showing now.. -PNA/+NAO. There is going to be a 601-602dm ridge in the N. Atlantic in the coming days over the area that has a pretty big summertime SST correlation to Wintertime NAO.. warm water there favors +NAO. It seems like recent seasonal model runs have been going more +NAO. It may also be that they just weigh heavily on trends.. as this will be our 5th solid +NAO burst since the start of the year (negative H5 over Greenland and Davis Strait), which was more than the last few years combined. It also seems like the Sun spikes in May really led some good +NAO..

12z GEFS showing 601 to 602dm off the Northeast coast July 12. I bet that is record breaking..

>600dm off the NE coast July 12-13.. all with +NAO/+EPO. That particular pattern (+epo), favors temperatures busting warmer than forecasted.

I only got up to 87-88 today in Florida lol

Looking like the return of the 594dm ridge July 12-13 +epo/+nao for the next 15 days should keep us well above average.

09-10 only maxed out at +1.6, but was followed by 2 La Nina years, one being -1.6. 23-24 is reversing to La Nina too. 72-73 was followed by 3 La Nina's 82-83 was followed by 2 La Nina's right in the middle of +PDO 97-98 was followed by 3 La Nina's. But after the 15-16 El Nino, we basically had 7 years of -PNA (8 if you include 23-24). It just seems like since the 1970s, Strong El Nino events are more of a long term La Nina state than the former.

Well the Winter.. I was posting a 12-month average since 1998. The Winter RNA pattern has been especially strong after we turn the corner for coldest time of the year (~Jan 27th), this is a ridiculous anomaly for a 7-consecutive year period covering a 2-month span.. +120dm. Do you have any idea why Strong El Nino's are head starting long term La Nina states? The 15-16 one was 1:8. I haven't yet figured it out, except to say that the base ENSO state is more long term and a +wave within that long term state is followed by an equal -wave.

I just know that there is a PNA correlation. CDC correlation composites show that the PDO is higher correlated than Nino 4, 3.4, 3, 1.2, but if you compare it to subsurface conditions, ENSO correlates higher than the PDO in the N. Pacific. Perma-La Nina state has been ongoing since 1998: I'm not really sure what you mean by east of the equator.. can you clarify? Do you mean east of the dateline? I disagree. The warming in the region you are referring is actually very +AMO-related, and is more an after-effect of things happening globally https://ibb.co/C8kZdkV