Stormchaserchuck1

Because of shortened wavelengths in the mid Summer, July has a +temp correlation with +PNA from ATL to NYC

Here's the Winter US Temp map Believe it or not, 5/6 of those +analogs were below average snow here.

We've had a hostile Arctic this late Spring/Summer so far It's been pretty amazing to not break 2012's arctic ice melt record for 13 years now. Since 2012, here are the analogs to pattern: Following Winter: It seems to "snap back" in the Winter, with -AO

Since 2012, this is what the following Winter looks like in years with -SLP May-Aug 60-90N vs +SLP (anomaly map below is showing negative base, with both sides included). This is why I think the Euro seasonal has that pressure map in the Pacific despite -PDO, and why the CPC is going cooler.

Actually us not breaking 2012's record in this time of exponential global warming, for now 13 years.. is just as impressive. 2021-2024

With 61% of the period complete, it's at +0.20 for DJFM NAO. Given the 0.54 sd, which has hit 11-9 since inception in 2005, it has a 50% probability of being in the range -0.34 to +0.74 Winter NAO.

I mean, it's pretty important. I think the pattern derives right from the subsurface.

CPC subsurface continues to be much different from TAO/Triton.. it's holding a warm pool in the western-central subsurface, below the dateline.

Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me.

SOI has been solidly negative for the first time in a while, during the last 3 days. This has occurred with the ENSO subsurface cold pool no longer deepening.. the anomalies have moderated from -5c max to -3c max. 5 Aug 2025 1012.75 1014.10 -18.03 4.89 2.94 4 Aug 2025 1012.63 1014.25 -19.66 4.67 3.20 3 Aug 2025 1013.49 1015.10 -19.60 4.77 3.40

Yeah, in the NAO roll-forward we would have to get -EPO to balance out those US Temps with such a strong +NAO going on. I just think it's cool how they pick their own unique landing place with the northern latitude trough, not in what's occurring or has occurred, but going forward.

^They don't often go extreme though. A lot of it is the average error factored in. Compared to the N. Hemisphere, we are about in the middle of the warm anomaly.

^Here's how they roll-forward

It's very interesting! consistency usually dominates. This is the next three 7-month periods for the NAO, going to April 2026. US Temps aren't as warm as you would expect AO is completely different rolled forward - it's not a negative H5 based over Greenland, but over the Arctic circle and north of Alaska!

Be happy it's not Winter July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month, with a projected Aug 1-15 value coming in around +1. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction is 1/64.

The CPC monthly page has updated July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction at random is 1/64.

It snowed here 15 times last December through mid January in +PNA.. I will always take a +PNA pattern, I think it's somewhat underestimated. It also has 4x lower coastal SLP correlation vs -PNA.

Does the Euro develop La Nina?

Did you guys see the CANSIPS 0.0 month lead forecast for July? Congrats Iowa The Euro has had some big misses the past 2 Winters, from the Fall. I honestly think that seasonal models should be built to do better, You can run forward certain variables and get a picture. I always wondered if you take and combine analog data from 200 world cities, if it would produce a successful roll forward.

I don't think we will get a SE ridge if the Pacific H5 looks like that for the Winter. Their Pac ridge might be far enough south though.. I think it's persistence as last Feb looked like that with the dominant +h5 over 90N. Crazy how much it looks like June-July.

I think there is KU potential in mid-late January, but the wild card is the NAO. I don't think the NAO will stay negative for more than 10 days at a time this Winter.. if it can line up with what I think could be a GOA low pattern in January (if La Nina doesn't go too strong), then we might hit a good storm. If the ENSO subsurface is -4 to -6 during that time though, forget it..

There really hasn't been a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge since before the 23-24 El Nino. I mean for several years there we were seeing some big time patterns out there. It's been much weaker lately, making me think it probably won't be a big -pna Winter, could average negative in the mean though.

That's probably true unless something over powers it like a Strong La Nina. I think, like last year, a +NAO tendency will try to happen with +pna/-epo, I just don't know if the "snap back" from last year is going to negate that. Call the theory weird, but I've been testing it and it's been working out.. a year ago we had like 10 days of -5 AAO readings around now, a month ago I said that will probably mean we get +AAO around the same time this year and it was strongly positive in early July and now early August. PDO years that "don't work" one Winter work at a coefficient of 1.25x the following year. Just random statistical stuff, but I think given the background state we are kind of due for a more -PNA Winter.. maybe -EPO. I've also been thinking, how bad would a 01-02 +EPO-like Winter be these days? It's actually been a little bit of time since the EPO has been in a strongly positive state for the Winter, and that index is very powerful at resulting US weather. I think a 01-02 style +EPO would probably put us in the 70s down here in the Winter on multiple days, I guess given the WPO and EA.

Nevermind, I found the link that you had sent me (thank you).. It's actually not what I thought I saw posted. This confirms the un-correlating NAO in the last 10 years, although I think the Pacific pattern has a lot to do with it (notice the big anomalies over the West coast, usually the NAO runs 0.1-0.2 correlation out there). I think it's been -PNA/+EPO with -NAO and +PNA/-EPO with +NAO.

I thought you had posted a US Climate division data correlation map, showing >0.5 temp correlation with the NAO over the last decade, almost everywhere in the CONUS during the cold season. This was maybe 9 months ago.