Stormchaserchuck1

The correlation should be opposite following El Nino's. 51-59 was 4/8 El Nino, and no years were borderline making it a close call for El Nino qualification.. Summer 1952 hit +0.2 ONI but that's the highest besides the linear up and down of ENSO. In there were 2 La Nina's too.. so 4 El Nino's and 2 La Nina's, and 2 Neutral's in 8 years.. I don't think that really matches 4/5 consecutive ENSO years. I thought you might find the research interesting though. It kind of goes with the El Nino tendency in +3-6 years that we were finding after a Strong El Nino (completely different variable, matching). It seems our sweet spot just per ENSO roll forwards is +3-4 Winters from now (26-28), with a slightly better chance next year vs this year. La Nina's are a cold water phase, and global cooling has been known to match it, just like global warming has been known to match El Nino's, so it actually makes a little bit of sense that a long term bunch of these years would precede some cooler conditions. I always say be careful being down on La Nina's, because they are actually a cold climate phase. A La Nina this year might be associated with a PNA reverse afterward, who knows?

A La Nina this year will make it 4/5 years that we have had La Nina conditions lately. Those similar cases were actually followed by some good Winters in the years after: 2007-2012, 4 La Nina's in 5 years. Winters 13-14 and 14-15 were cold. 1995-2001, 4 La Nina's in 6 years. 02-03 was cold, 03-04 and 04-05 were good snow years in the NE north of 40N. 1970-1976, 5 La Nina's in 6 years. 76-77, 77-78 and 78-79 were among the coldest Winter's on record. Combined First 3 Winters after 4/5-6 year La Nina's: Years +2-3: *No cases yet of 4/5-6 El Nino years. 63-70 and 76-83 were 4/7 El Nino years. Following 3 Winter's: + and - put together [to default La Nina] shows the PNA usually reverses in the following 3 Winters: Extra month: March, combined, years +2-3: March all 3 years after 4/5-6 La Nina's total minus two 4-7 year El Nino's: pretty good little signal there. I find it interesting that you have a tendency for the PNA to reverse, when the PDO is sort of a culmination index of conditions run forward, so consistency should be, if the PDO has correlation weight. But you see the opposite happen. Precip for the 3 La Nina bunches minus the 2 El Nino bunches (Combined First 3 years after):

Yeah, I've been surprised by this Summer. If we hit 104 last July, there would have been some awesome lightning shows.

Kind of easily too. We had some favorable index patterns, but imagine if we had a trough dig into the West or Midwest..

NE MD always gets more than enough rain.

Looks like the heat returns for a few days at the end of the month. DCA might do its record 8th 80+ low temp if the GEFS verifies.

Now that we broke some of the cap today, tomorrow should be a better severe weather day I would think. I wanted us to get really hot for good storms, but we held too much cap this year.

AO/NAO have been positive since ~June 18, it's probably about a +1.5 index for that time. We've actually seen pretty strong cold 500mb (over Greenland and NE Canada), for the first time in a while in the N. Hemisphere, this Summer. The ice melt is kind of surprising in that regard, and is happening in the same areas as before, north of Alaska and on the Pacific Ocean side. The cold anomaly looks to continue over the Arctic circle for the next 15 days.

More organized negative subsurface this time.. especially compared to 2017. It's 200m below the central-west region, which is the most time lagged correlation. If I had to guess, that central-western part of the subsurface at the thermocline leads Nino 3/1.2 by as much as +45 days.

+EPO patterns always bust higher.. especially in the Wintertime

Still looking like strong correlation with -ENSO at the 384hr model range all hail the subsurface!

I might take the over. +EPO patterns (500mb low over Alaska) usually bust a few degrees warmer from this range. Only way we stay under 103-104 in DC I think is if precip tomorrow interferes. 100 today and the pattern is only getting warmer..

Baltimore's forecast is 101 tomorrow. 102 Tuesday

If cyclones around the world are not as above average as the Atlantic since 1995, then that is something to watch, as you can say that we have already been hitting the peak part of the potential. I haven't done the research, but if the rest of the globe is say 125%, while the Atlantic is 200%, then I would have a hard time forecasting a record number of storms, and the max end ranges of CSU and NHC of 25 storms could be a little bit of a stretch, given that you would need absolutely perfect conditions for the majority of the season. With that being said, the central-ENSO subsurface looks very healthy in the direction of La Nina, with max anomalies of -5c to -6c today. I've found that this subsurface region has higher correlation to global impacts than surface SSTs, and with the surface taking time to cool, knowing that there is a stronger correlated region could be the difference between expecting 15-20 storms (Neutral) vs 20-25 storms (La Nina). Right now it looks like a Moderate La Nina in the subsurface, while Nino 3.4 is Neutral. 1995, 2005, 2020 were all years where the ENSO subsurface was much colder than the surface from the Summer through September.

If that Atlantic SST predictor area is going super positive right now, and high ACE correlates to -NAO's(?) Maybe it won't be such a high ACE.. hard to believe the potential energy isn't there though when there was a Cat 5 on July 1. Also, subsurface ENSO, approaching -6c right now I think is a lower shear signal for the heart of the season vs the Neutral SST stuff that is continuing.. based on historical analysis of the two variables. Here are three examples: neg subsurface Aug-Oct 1995 colder subsurface than surface Aug-Oct 2005 colder subsurface originally in Aug-Oct 2020

The strongest correlation is -QBO/El Nino = +10mb in cold season, and +QBO/La Nina = -10mb in cold season I came up with the theory in 2008, but since then the NAO has actually held somewhat of an opposite correlation to 10mb, but the 10mb effect of the two variables has held. We had I think 4 Stratosphere warmings last Winter.

DT mentions a lot the cooler scenarios to internet audience, but when he makes forecasts to his paid clients, he usually goes warmer. I agree with you that the La Nina still looks healthy in developing.

I certainly wouldn't go cold in the Great Lakes and Northeast with a cold anomaly over Alaska and Greenland. I think they are latching onto what has happened in July, with a +EPO and cold in the center of the country, which is opposite of what usually happens in +EPO: ^correlation map is reverse I was going to respond to raindancewx this, how odd the cooler weather is there with a +EPO this month. ^two 0.5 correlations disconnecting, pretty rare. These global models initialize what is happening recently and run it out alot. Even more the interesting correlation with ENSO subsurface which is dominating everything right now for forecasting value

I'm just impressed with how the ENSO subsurface connects with what is happening globally. SOI has been negative the last 4 days: 13 Jul 2024 1011.20 1010.70 -2.77 12 Jul 2024 1009.77 1012.40 -22.04 11 Jul 2024 1010.29 1014.45 -31.46 10 Jul 2024 1012.55 1014.15 -15.70 In 95-96, the Winter that went +PNA during a La Nina, the central-subsurface was Neutral-Positive throughout the Winter. There are many such examples of the surface and subsurface diverging, and the H5 pattern, or things like hurricanes, matching the subsurface Technically, an upwelling wave is a Rossby wave. Kelvin waves have to do more with a lowering of the thermocline and developing subsurface warmth.

Near the Azores if I remember correctly. It seems like every year lately we set a new milestone

It's probably a 20 hour drive to Buffalo, NY. You should do it. I was driving through the south recently, and can't really believe how short term this current climate cycle is regarding the trees and wildlife.. I imagined it could be very cold and snowy in the south at times, but it's just so sensitive to every little mile these days.

ONI was +0.1 for DJF 89-90. The La Nina died in May 1989, and kept warming through the year.. per ONI, definitely not a Weak La Nina But I remember in 05-06, we were using 89-90 as an analog for the Winter, because of the strong -QBO, rising, and maybe neg Neutral ENSO conditions. It worked out pretty good.

The 3 years that stand out compared to their predecessors for Atlantic activity, 1995, 2005, and 2020 did have a Wintertime -NAO in the midst of a +NAO general time.. but I think give it like 20 examples over 200 years, the correlation would be less than 0.1. Still, this is interesting, I guess

Real nice subsurface cold.. -5c, approaching -6c on the TAO/Triton maps in the last day.. It's right where you want it in the central-subsurface region too, for highest effect. Will be interesting to see if we can develop a cooling trend at the surface in the coming weeks. Obviously, the N. Hemisphere H5 is correlation with the subsurface 500mb doesn't care that the surface is still +Neutral

Nice catch with the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming.. the QBO just turned positive last month, and the La Nina is still weak, so the strong correlation with both of those phases to 10mb is not really in effect yet.. obviously I can do roll forwards that will probably show a higher chance for northern Hemisphere Strat warming in the cold season, but with both of those indexes (QBO, ENSO) strengthening, it shifts things a bit. Still, it's nice to see somewhat of a positive factor for Winter cold, since everything N. Hemisphere has been warm ad nauseam.