Stormchaserchuck1

EPO's run in 7-12 day patterns, and I kind of think we are due for some -EPO patterns. In 99-00 we had that Jan 25 storm that gave us 20" in the midst of a Strong La Nina and a very warm Winter, so yeah things can time right and we can get average snowfall, It will usually happen with a -EPO or +PNA. With that being said, they haven't seen a flake of snow in Raleigh, NC for 1100 days. And Boston hasn't seen a 4" storm in almost 3 years. The jet stream is definitely lifting north for the last decade, and I think that has a lot to do with the Pacific La Nina cycle we are in, resulting in -PDO. I think what they normally see in NC/SC is what we are in right now, and that doesn't really show signs of changing, at least not soon. Watch the SW, US too, when they get troughs/rain, we are more favorable for Winter weather a few years later, vs hot/dry there, which usually spreads east over time.. Maybe when the Atlantic starts switching back to -AMO and the PDO changes as well we will get more favorable.. they both should be near their decadal cycle peaks right now. I think what we are in right now is more RNA/+AMO vs what they would call global warming. maybe like 70/30

May QBO rose to -6.5, from -23.4 in April. Since it runs in positive/negative 10+ month period cycles, that gives us about a >92% chance of having a +QBO Winter. QBO/La Nina strengthens the 10mb polar vortex, giving higher tendency for +AO conditions at the surface. Because of this coupling with La Nina, the ENSO state for the Winter is more sensitive than normal for above or below normal temperature conditions. The PDO has actually a greater temperature correlation over the Mid Atlantic region than ENSO does. With -PDO still running strong, making down to -3 last month, it's very likely that we will have a -PDO Winter. The fact that a growing La Nina is occurring strengthens this idea. It usually goes in the direction of ENSO. Solar Max is occurring with near peak conditions currently underway. Solar Max correlates with the NAO at +0.3 (~30% chance for +NAO Winter vs -NAO). The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948-49, 52-53, 90-91, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00, 2001-02, 05-06, 11-12, 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23. (-) years: 1970-71, 77-78, 78-79, 81-82, 83-84, 92-93.] Mexico saw a major heat wave in May. The roll forward of years matching this, show that the heat develops across the US from the Rockies to Midwest July-August, then in September it rolls east, with above average conditions usually occurring through the following Fall and Winter (Sept-Mar). Right now I have about 85-90% confidence that we will see an above average temperature Winter (DJFM) vs the 30-year average.

Yeah, I have correlated May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTs with the following Winters NAO (DJFM), at a 0.54 standard deviation. That SD is 9-9 since I incepted the thing in 2005. The current index is Neutral, with 30% of the time period complete, it's like -0.05 for the Winter's NAO right now.

The chances are definitely higher for that outcome. La Nina's aren't so bad for you guys.. there is a near "0" correlation with temps, going back to 1948, using that variable alone. -PDO's are what's bad as it has near a +0.3 correlation with warmer temps. Solar Max correlates with +NAO, which is a warmer pattern, too, although that connection is not exact. If we go +QBO, that coupled with La Nina enhances +AO conditions, making that a bad pattern for you, vs La Nina's that can be a good pattern, when not coupled with +QBO. The roll forward research is showing a pretty strong signal though. It's not surprising because there is more of a "flat global jet, lifted north" right now, so you would think the same kind of thing would continue, with no major fluctuations occurring in the pattern lately.

The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. (-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

They sure are getting some late season snows in the West this year. Don't forget 9-9-2020, it snowed down to Denver and Arizona.

El Nino's have been quiet.. even last year there wasn't any Caribbean activity. Only 1 Moderate+ El Nino hurricane season since 1950 had more than 12 Named Storms (last year).

If we keep the warm water temperatures up, it should be getting more active. About a month ago the -PDO region south of the Aleutian islands hit +5c anomalies, which made the Atlantic record temperatures look small in comparison. I don't see why the warming trend through the years shouldn't continue.. at some point, there will be an attempt to go back to -AMO,.. but for the next few years the -PDO and +AMO which are long term states, and take some time to wane being as they are near their peaks, should keep the Atlantic active.

Probably, it's tough to say. Average activity is still increasing, as is the AMO.

Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years (~20%)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. (-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

I have the wonder if El Nino's run the risk of being more powerful, if Stronger events are not producing the same results as they did several decades ago. I said this with the -NAO too, since 2019 we have seen a ridge in the mid-latitudes under Greenland ridging/blocking, almost every time, running up the east coast, and you have to wonder if the more natural state is a stronger Greenland block. It seems that the "cap" is just streaming everything up north, and the end result is more mid-latitude ridging, that appears as a -PNA or SE ridge, under a less volatile system. If you look at the maps of Stronger El Nino events past to now, (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24), you will see a constant degradation in the North Pacific low area. That could be a product of not maxing out the potential vs less correlated ENSO events. I always say that the natural state of this Earth is more chaotic than we believe with running records of everything.

The La Nina might not be a multi-year event. La Nina years favor more activity than non-La Nina years.

I kind of think it takes some time for SSTs to saturate. Below the surface it's probably not as warm as immediately on the surface. If we sustain these temperatures for the next 1-3 years, hurricanes could see an uptick, but it might be too early to make a huge major difference this year. If SSTs were really as warm in January as they usually are in July, we probably would have seen a storm by now..

Nice difference a year makes. I don't see how a pattern like that would be possible this year (two -4 areas). It looked like we were headed for a -NAO pattern early in the month, but that didn't hold. The last 6 full months: https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV

Decadal research through the 1900s does show that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge patterns. -AMO https://ibb.co/bR3LvKW +AMO https://ibb.co/KctZCPm -AMO https://ibb.co/wKX4YCC +AMO https://ibb.co/sFSwm0j

I'm talking about a North Pacific Ocean High pressure. CPC is wacky with their measurement, it doesn't include the constant pattern. Even +EPO could have a higher N. Pacific High correlation than what they are calling RNA in those maps.

Weekend rule is crazy! I remember in the early 2000s it was 30-40% more likely to rain on the weekend for some time. Would love to see some long term stats vs mathematical anomalies.

Overall jet stream has shifted north, It effects us differently in different seasons. That stuff happening again screams ridge up into NE this Winter imo, as the base state. We would need a -EPO to break it. -NAO probably won't be able to do it.

March 2023 too, we had a -NAO and -EPO for some time. It amounted to nothing. I think later in the -PNA decadal phase a SE ridge becomes more constant vs early in the cycle. That's something I think we could batteling again this Winter, even if the NAO goes negative.

I do think we can almost rule Strong La Nina out. Subsurface though continues to favor possibly a Moderate La Nina, at the very least Weak. There is major global ocean warming this year, and I was wondering if that would spill over into ENSO.. it looks like it might. MEI/RONI might be a better gauge for effects this year, although it's hard to separate out the PDO.

I think you have done great the last 2 years, but don't fall in the trap of thinking "this is X std's above normal so it has to even out". I think there is a very clear reason for the +WPO of late, being the La Nina state in the Pacific since about 1998 (leading to -PDO conditions). The -WPO/-EPO Winters have been more +pdo during that time. The real trend is how the RNA of late has been gaining steam, part of that being how we saw a N. Pacific High most of the time in a Strong El Nino this past Winter, which only happened in 65-66 and 72-73, at the peak of that -pdo cycle. It does open the door for -NAO potential though, I think. You were the only that originally pointed out the PDO has a higher correlation: https://ibb.co/hWtdb2W +0.6 correlation over the Deep South! https://ibb.co/kyH3kzd +0.35 peak correlation

If I had to venture a guess for the upcoming Winter right now, it would look like this. https://ibb.co/4PqH6ZK

High pressure patterns in the SW, US also lead +EPO/WPO. So far it looks like this Summer is going to feature High pressure there. That has been the trend since about 1995..

I don't think the WPO-EPO is really going to flip until the PDO flips. Maybe it will lead it though? History says we should be near the time-shift of peaking/declining PDO phase.

And the windchill was -35F in Kansas City for the Chiefs home playoff game in January! Imagine the potential we are running into, if that was the warmest Winter on record.