Stormchaserchuck1

13-14 PDO was because of the pattern, though. It's like pointing out that the ground is cold after 4 months of 20 degree days.

These August maps verifying would make it the warmest Dec - Aug on record for the CONUS by a little bit of a margin.. Just so you know they aren't general global warming maps, look over Alaska.. the CPC is predicting once again a pretty strong +EPO The roll forwards, going back to 1948, are ugly, and has a pretty strong correlation signal for every month but December going into March 2025.. not because warm begets warm, but because historically the dominating patterns have remained consistent.

Those warm pools at 40-45N, off of New Foundland and south of the Aleutian islands really are something.. approaching +10F readings. I think that's the range where it starts having more of an impact on the atmosphere. Or at least it would take a lot of "work" to change.

Yeah, it certainly didn't work in those years.. they were very -PNA Winters It didn't work in 96-97.. we had a Strong Kelvin wave hit in the Winter, that preceded the 1997 Super El Nino.. That was more of a Neutral Winter. But back I think in 2008, I constructed a custom index going back to 1948, using the ftp custom input on CDC maps, and found it did historically test back better than ENSO measurement, like Nino 3.4 SST and OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds.. etc. And since 2008, it has worked at like +200% lol. I can't make custom indexes anymore on the CDC daily and monthly composites, but if I could you would see the overall +correlation.. the PDO beats out Nino 3.4 in correlation composites with the N. Pacific pattern, but the subsurface beats out the PDO..

The SSTs lagged what was happening atmospherically though. After a Strong High pressure set in, in the Gulf of Alaska, Oct-Dec, SSTs eventually matched suit. They did not look like that when the pattern began in 2013: -PDO warm pool was far enough south where it really shouldn't have led that -EPO pattern Like 2002 and many others, the pattern got going real quick in October, but there was a pretty solid -PDO in place before that happened..

Yeah, you got the high precip correlation of +NAO, and severe cold of -EPO. Hasn't happened together like that too many times historically. Dec 1983 is one, although it was a near neutral NAO. Dec 1989 had +NAO, but precip is usually better in Jan and Feb.

Thanks! I especially like these examples for the times the N. Pacific H5 pattern most deviated from the surface ENSO state.. For El Nino, 65-66 and 72-73. For La Nina, 95-96 and 00-01 The maps are self-explanatory. And that's 4/4. The correlation isn't always perfect, but when I previously plotted all subsurface data vs surface, I found a stronger N. Pacific 500mb correlation with the subsurface. Then of course, this year v before a big -PNA set in Feb 15 - March 31 and carried through the Spring Making 23-24 the 3rd most deviated situation between El Nino SSTs and the N. Pacific 500mb pattern.. negative subsurface The subsurface does change a lot, so if there is, say a Moderate Nina in the subsurface now, that doesn't mean it will hold 2-3 months out, or the Winter for that matter.

We did have an "El Nino pattern" that June with a +PNA and warm anomaly over the Arctic Do you have a link to those older subsurface maps?

If Nino 4 maintains its warm anomalies through the Fall and Winter, we could be looking at another Strong El Nino in the next couple of years, or "El Nino state", I think. The SOI becomes more important now, imo.

Interesting. SSTs at this time in 2013 actually didn't look too far from what we have now @40/70 Benchmark Notice the New Foundland warm pool.. and 13-14 was actually a very +NAO Winter, but it correlated with the -EPO.

The seasonal models for August had way above average precip in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.. like 150-200%. Kind of reminds me of last Winter when the seasonal models kept showing cold on the east coast, just because of the El Nino. They might have been taking into account the warm Atlantic SSTs in the Spring and possible La Nina conditions and running that forward.

Yeah, I'm glad you're getting it. +NAO/-EPO is a pretty above average precip pattern for you.. -EPO is -0.1, and +NAO is +0.5. Together, they do have +snowfall correlation in the Northeast. Usually you have to sacrifice cold air for dryness.. -EPO isn't too bad in this regard:

The EPO usually flips, albeit briefly, after a sustained strong phase.. Here's an example: We had a 8-day +EPO period July 10-17 that gave us very warm temperatures in the East Now it flipped for about 6 days. There are all kind of examples of this throughout the history.. The EPO is probably the most "we're due" region of the northern hemisphere Here's the Dec - mid July EPO to date: Could it flip in the Fall-Winter? maybe

One thing that blows me away is the PDO correlation to NW Canada temps in the Fall season: Being a water index, the PDO you would think is heavily influenced in the now-time by conditions over the waters.. but the land area has a higher correlation! meaning.. it has some extra-effect. >0.6 over a 73-year period is nothing to sneeze at.

Since 1998, we have had 14 La Nina events, and 8 El Nino events. This heavy skew with La Nina conditions may even be keeping the global temperature down some over the past 20 years..

Btw, the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming really correlated to -AAO conditions +time: It peaked as 10mb warming July 6-19. I estimated in the N. Hemisphere in early-mid January, it takes +20-25 days for greatest -AO effects. This same time lag in effect seems to have fit perfectly here.

The ENSO state, of La Nina or not, is extra sensitive this year, because the QBO should be strongly positive for the Winter. Moderate+ La Nina's with +QBOS have a strong 10mb correlation, but this is not so heavy when the event is only Weak. My NAO index, based on N. Atlantic SSTs is currently coming in at +0.50 for DJFM, but there has been a strong correlation since 2013, and stronger since 2019, for -NAO to happen with -PNA/+EPO and +NAO to happen with +PNA/-EPO. If we keep this strong +NAO going into Winter (and look how it picked up after those sun spikes in May!), it may favor a weaker La Nina-N. Pacific pattern, which would fit possible ENSO negative subsurface rebounding or shifting east through the Fall.. It could be possible that this was a ultimately a Spring/Summer "Moderate La Nina" (strong H5 correlation), but maybe just Weak in the extended..

From July 2020 to April 2023, we had 37 straight months of +SOI. This was associated with 3 years of La Nina conditions. June 1998 - April 1999 had 11 straight months of >1.0 SOI [CPC], which preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. March 1973 - October 1974 had 20 straight months of +SOI, which also preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. If the SOI doesn't rise in the coming months, Nino 4 SST is not really going to drop that much. This could ultimately form a subsurface warm pool in the western region, which would favor the rebound of the subsurface La Nina conditions in the Fall/Winter, and goes against the continuation of La Nina into next year.

13-14 also had a Strong Kelvin wave in the Winter, giving us Weak El Nino conditions in the subsurface. And the PDO was +. Like it or not, the PDO has correlated strongly to the PNA/EPO pattern for a long time. I think the "we're due for -EPO" could translate to the development of a subsurface El Nino during the Winter season, while the surface is Neutral. But we have a long way to go this year for that to be the case. The TAO/Triton maps are currently holding -5c anomalies under the central-subsurface.

ENSO climatology +years after Strong El Nino's, and +years after 4/5 La Nina years looks like this (blue line): Since the development of the internet, I have seen many things that had a ++time tendency to happen, happen closer to the now-time. Something that has +3-5 years likelihood to happen, I would say could start to impact years +1-2.. at least neutralizing the La Nina potential.

That's correct. We have also see the edges of a strong 10mb vortex, at 500mb flux a -PNA, during La Nina/+QBO's, and +PNA during El Nino/-QBO's over the last 20 years. Not really enough data yet to see if this is a correlated thing. But when we are getting -NAO periods in La Nina/+QBO, we are getting a very strong -PNA, and sometimes +epo, at the same time to counter it, during the cold season.

I would be surprised. With an active Solar Max, I think we are countering all that we saw from 2000-2022, and trying to flip the long term phase to El Nino. Nino 4 has maintained almost Weak El Nino status despite 5 months of cold subsurface anomalies, and now this is developing: This long term trend for Nino 4 to increase, (setting records pretty easily last year) is setting the tone, and will make it hard for another year of La Nina, in my opinion. Maybe borderline Weak-Nina at the max. We also haven't seen the Sun this active since the late-1990s: It has a 0.1 El Nino correlation.

1st real thunderstorm of the year looks to be moving in, and it's 72F.. that cap (CIN) has really been something else this year. If we are going to be above average in precip early August (like the CPC suggests) with a ridge building overhead, it better really rain a lot with this frontal boundary over the next few days..

I would take the under on that. You would go with 50" with a La Nina/+NAO? +NAO's are wetter for you than warmer, but that really only makes a +snow difference right in the middle of Winter, mid to late January. You may be able to luck into a snowy pattern if the subsurface Nina moderates, and we go Neutral, then maybe -EPO, but it's still kind of far out to see if that will happen.. A lot of the roll forwards are like +3 to +5F for you.

If we don't pick it up at the surface, I wonder if a warm pool will start to develop in the western subsurface region, below Nino 4, and the general subsurface "Moderate Nina" will start to moderate in the Fall.. Next years ENSO is pretty big for the direction we will be heading multi-year, and if we start to see the subsurface moderate in the Fall/Winter it would favor more +ENSO conditions next year.