Stormchaserchuck1

DCA: +1.4NYC: +1.5BOS: +1.2ORD: +0.1ATL: +0.9IAH: +1.1DEN: +0.8PHX: +2.2SEA: +2.0

You can see where tropical conditions are becoming more favorable in the Pacific as the MJO wave progresses east

It's interesting that the roll-forwards for warm CONUS Dec - June, and Dec - July, had August as a break month along with December.. This beats even CPC, who was very bullish on much above average temperatures a short time ago. Something to consider.. the roll forwards were very warm every month through March 2025, with Dec and August being only neutral. August looks like it will fit that pattern with a -EPO developing for some of the time. Doesn't mean Sept-Oct will be cool.

I think so.. I think they had above average for July. I can't believe this is day 3 of no precip here after all the rain on models.. I've never seen so much cap hold as this Summer so far..

I think the point is negative AAO and AO is a decadal state. This makes the reversal forecast interesting this Winter, with 3 of the last 4 Winters having +H5 anomalies over Greenland (-AO), and the one that was not was neutral. But we are in this pattern where -AO is heavily correlating with --PNA.. If the NAO does go negative this Winter, or the there are -NAO periods, I would bet the N. Pacific High flexes at the same time.

I'm surprised there is another -5 reading at the same time of year, not too long ago.. I guess with less topography, Antarctica does it more easily. Is 1100 hPa an all time record? Edit:

Here you guys go.. for all the drought cries, we sure do pretty often get enough rain.. It always goes above average precip after an extended dry period in the east..

You guys might find this interesting.. there is a +correlation. What are the odds the very north pole has the strongest lagged anomaly? Hitting +0.5, which is 3 out of every 4 times. v Displaced in Dec, but you get the point

AAO is literally falling off the charts after recent Stratosphere warming. It's important to note the time lag. The 10mb warming occurred July 6-19, making this +10-25 days to +20-35 days. 10mb warmings don't have the strongest correlated impact with the surface immediately, but with +time (how much time depends on when in the year it happens, closer to early Winter more +time, closer to late Winter less +time). I found the sweet spot for early to mid July in the Southern Hemisphere to be +20-25 days.

ENSO subsurface is dropping again.. tomorrow we might pop a -6c max area on TAO/Triton maps. This is impressive, considering the SOI has never been above +4 monthly for the whole event so far.. I think the Atlantic hurricane season should start to get going when the MJO becomes favorable. We might see more big storms, vs # of storms this year, as such a thing is correlated to La Nina conditions in the subsurface.

So how would you predict the MJO in advance? You use SSTs west of Nino 4 (and ENSO of course)? I've tried many things with the MJO and never came up with something that works from a good lead time.

Yeah, most of the -NAO periods have happened in December or March.. then when we had a -NAO in the middle of last Winter, we did have 2 snow events down in the Mid-Atlantic. I'd much rather look at 500mb maps though. The 2nd part of the CPCs range of negative anomalies 45N from the East coast to Africa is -NAO, but the PNA has been interfering lately... not that it isn't -NAO, just that downstream the Pacific ridge has been causing the mid latitudes in the Atlantic to stay warm (2nd 50% of their NAO calculation). For practical purposes, I'm going to call the upper latitude pattern the NAO.

You can sometimes get -NAO in the midst of shutout patterns. Look at Dec 2001 and Jan 1998 for example: Two shutout Winters down here in the Mid Atlantic. Something that you have to consider about -NAO's is, although they have a 0.5 below normal temps correlation, they also have a 0.5 drier than average correlation. -NAO's have sometimes appeared during super-horrible patterns.

We've had blocking over the NAO region.. I posted the image before, this is a pretty strong blocking signal for a 4-year period.. it's because within it we had 4-5 -NAO bouts. I don't know how or why the CPC calls that a +NAO, I've talked to Gawx about this before. Their calculations look silly compared to mean SLP. For the first time this year since 19-20, we've had negative anomalies over Greenland

Looks really nice. I've always found Europe's north latitude appealing

Your Texans will be paying Stroud $70mill/yr in a couple of years..

I remember Summers being hotter as a kid.. maybe the jet stream was south, giving us more of a push in front of storm systems.. There used to be big time thunderstorms too. We would have 10-15 days of year where the sky would turn dark gray or black. Not necessarily hail or tornados, but very powerful thunderstorms. Even in the early 2000s, there was a lot of lightning (I took thousands of photos). Completely different pattern now.

Latest CDC reanalysis SST map.. looks ugly, but we have had miracles like 2013 come from this: With the NAO prediction area coming in very +, I think that changes the formula from the last few years. Since 2013, +NAO's in Nov-March have been correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. but the La Nina and seasonal trends from the past 7 years should keep the PNA negative. But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow.. +NAO being a high precip correlation and -EPO being neutral precip and colder than average. We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20. Here's a composite from the last 4 Winters.. it's been mostly -AO and -PNA: This Winter I think we could even see a reversal from that map north of 45N, with the mean N. Pacific High Pressure being the only continuum..

Lamar Jackson is now the 7th highest paid QB after Tua and Jordan Love lol. The Ravens got real lucky signing him. But if you look at teams records vs QB after year 2001, the QB position is still underpaid vs cap!

Not a bad little pattern for the warmest day of the year, on average (~July 27-28)

I think for a max correlation over the continental US, you want something exactly in between the PNA and PNA-associated with EPO combo. 50/50 could be the max correlation reading, as a hybrid between the two patterns so you get the Upper Midwest and the Southeast on the same page, call it a N. Pacific low at 40N. But the classic PNA does not have a high correlation over the Northeast, despite a lot of what you hear, you are right about that. If you look at precip, the classic PNA actually comes in drier than colder over the East, making all things equal, not a very high snow-correlated pattern. It does have much lower SLP correlation on the coast though. So stronger storms with not as much moisture is +PNA. El Nino of course is inversely related to that: So when you get a +PNA in non-El Nino, it is especially dry. And -PNA in non-La Nina is especially wet.

Just a little musing but.. I think the classic PNA position is too far north. Push it south and you have a much higher correlation to East Coast temperatures. The problem is, in the classic PNA patterns, the anomaly often spills over into Alaska, and the temperature correlation over the US becomes neutralized. Here's the cold season H5 correlation to classic PNA Temps Push that N. Pacific pattern south a bit: And this is what you have: It makes sense that a Low/High in the N. Pacific at 50N would be less of a linear effect than 30/40N. For US temps, you have a hybrid between a cold and warm pattern, being called the PNA. That's why Dec 2020 wasn't so cold.

You're doing pretty good. I've done roll forward stuff with various global patterns (Mexican heat wave in May, CONUS record temps over the past 8 months, +EPO since the Winter, +NAO since May), and they are showing continued above average through March 2025.. But sometimes the EPO pattern will flip like you said.. that's how we could get some colder weather in here. Usually it would have to start in Sept-Oct.

It looks like he has a losing record, and ERA 4.0+ in a time when the league batting average is .240. Do they plan on starting him in the playoffs? I don't really see a big difference between winning the division and entering as a wild card team. It looks like they gave up two 2nd round picks from last years draft for him..

Models really overestimated the strength of the EPO and NAO in the medium range. This is a bias I have seen sometimes, they overdo pattern consistency in the MR/LR. It will still be in the 90s, but not record breaking like was looking possible before.