Stormchaserchuck1

I don't think we are going to so easily be better than last Winter, although when you have almost nothing it's difficult to do better.. We had some good -AO periods last Winter, and when the NAO went + in late January, Washington DC easily warmed up to 80 degrees, making it the first time that ever happened late Nov - late February. Now with the N. Atlantic SSTs warming rapidly over the lagged NAO predictor area, and QBO turning positive, it's looking like there is much higher likelihood this will be +NAO Winter. The recent heat wave in the northeast, US that happened a week ago spiked when the NAO briefly went positive, and I am seeing this on MR models again.. so +NAO periods have been going very warm since the start of 2024.

Data since 1948 shows it has a high probability of continuing through the Fall and Winter. In the CONUS, we are likely going to have a record warm Dec - July. I am waiting for the CDC to update the June map, but Dec-May looked like this: December to July analogs.. 30 top analogs: So 30 analogs is 40% of the whole dataset, since 1948 (30/75), so realistically a "normal" signal rolled forward should be +1-2F max areas. But what history shows is a higher correlation going forward! The following Fall (Sept-Nov) December is the odd month Then the following Winter (Jan-Mar). Remember this is a mix of 30 years. 30/75. Look at the scale Whole period.. September through March, +3-4 anomalies for a 7-month span, covering 30-years and 40% of the total dataset!

-5c popping in the central ENSO-subsurface. It's made a nice drop the last few days. I still contest there is a direct no-time correlation between subsurface region and the N. Pacific pattern. LR models showing N. Pacific ridge and US-based ridge definitely looks like La Nina.

Also looking like a real nice heat ridge setting up on LR models for the end of July. CPC thinks we will start to see widespread drought by late Summer

Precip is suppose to be above normal for July. Let's see if we can get some good boomers.. I agree though, this season so far has sucked. Easily one of the worst. I've only seen distant CC lightning.

I'm just speaking from personal experience. The last few years matched again what I saw as a kid. The sky has though, in the last 2-3 years maintained a purple and pink tint that I didn't see before. Nice pictures by the way. I love looking at them.

Hopefully we'll match last July's thunderstorm season. It started June 24th last year. This year hasn't quite been the same so far. There has been a trend over the years for our severe weather to occur from the Spring to the Summer. I always contend that heat is our greatest variable.

Definitely some "A" Summers and sunsets over the last few years.. since about 2021-2022, the sky has become much more picturesque.

The desert SW heat ridge continuum is truly phenomenal, and continues to increase as far as we can tell.. It's one of the places that has sustained new conditions over the last 30 years. I've always done research that showed conditions in the SW, US lead the eastern 1/2 of the US by months and years, depending what period of time you are looking at.. and I'm talking about anomalies. It's one of the "leading areas" in the world.

Looking at the future, and not the past this time, 2024 will be analoged for warm waters and high OHC, just like 2005 is to this year. Beryl maintaining Cat 4+ for 84 hours is another analogous event for seasonal potentially favorable conditions for Atlantic hurricane seasons rolled forward. With a likely increase in El Nino's vs La Nina's in the next few decades and AMO not always being super positive (history says it runs in cycles but the general mid latitude warming across the globe is pretty significant right now- Hard to say that, that isn't a constant), this year will be one of the top analogs for future hurricane seasons with warm starting conditions. The final numbers will be used for future forecasts. I'm surprised how we're blowing out 150 years of data with this one storm, but it stresses how much warm SSTs and high OHC does play a role in Atlantic hurricane development, as there has been a linear correlation over the last 30 years. Also, regarding the new potential, remember how Lee blew out forecasts last year, making the after-the-fact bust skew much more angled upward with that one storm. We have similar SSTs this to year to last year, with a Weak La Nina vs Strong El Nino being the big difference.

The resilience of this storm is pretty incredible, and speaks volume about the OHC and potential heat energy of the oceans right now. If it remained favorable conditions, Beryl could have maintained Cat 4+ all the way up to the Yucatan. Pretty incredible for early July, but again, I'm surprised that in 150 years of data there aren't many examples of this.

You're right.. I missed 2016 because it didn't carry over into January. And 19-20 hit 0.5 for 4 months, the qualification should be 3. So you can really make a case for 11/11 of the most recent years being El Nino or La Nina.. makes me really doubt a call of ENSO Neutral next year, although I think you are right about the longer term trend starting to gravitate more toward El Nino/+PDO.. that makes me think not La Nina. If we stay La Nina next year, -PDO I think would remain for several more years. If we go El Nino next year, it's a head start back toward the + phase, which I think we should be due for soon. Big year with regards to global tendency direction.

The highest correlation to El Nino happens +3-5 year after a Strong El Nino. 4/23 of those years were La Nina, 10/23 of those years were El Nino. Next year will be Year 2. I don't know that we go right back to El Nino, but it could stay Neutral. Believe it or not, we have only had 7 Neutral ENSO years since 1994. 23/30 (77%) have been either El Nino or La Nina. If this year is La Nina, that will make 9/11 El Nino or La Nina ENSO events since 2014 (82%), and only 2/11 Neutral. I think what we are seeing with this La Nina is the anomaly since the 1940s of the snap-back after a Strong El Nino. That coupled with near record -PDO levels, which enhances La Nina tendency. And maybe some final lag from the Solar Min. It was interesting to see the La Nina forecast/projection go from Moderate-Strong to Weak just about when those Solar flares hit in May. The -PDO is so entrenched now, it may take 10 years to switch the long term phase back to positive, since you have to change it all the way to the subsurface. But I do agree, that we should start heading in that direction. Previous PDO cycles didn't last much longer than this, we are on Year 26. I think we should also be due for some tendency back to El Nino, since 14-8 ENSO events since 1999 have been La Nina's.

-4c pocket in the central-ENSO subsurface holding.. don't underestimate the global warming skew around now. It's been a more stable global pattern for 10+ years now, and I think in future years/decades we will rarely seeing a Strong La Nina event, per classic standards. I would have been surprised if we had a major cold water event happen with all the record +AMO and record N. Pacific warm pool, and it doesn't seem to fit the puzzle of Solar too. I contest that the effects could still be of a Moderate La Nina if the subsurface sustains -4c to -5c anomalies in the coming time.. that correlation to the global pattern happens at 0-time. If I had to guess I would say La Nina doesn't sustain after this year.

I guess when the population lights looked like that. It's a little different now. I would guess it looks like Camille, but that's without doing research or anything..

1980 had the earliest Cat 5 for a while when Allen reached it on August 5. That season had 9 Hurricanes, 2 MH. 2005 then did it in July, when Emily did it on July 16. That season had 28 NS, 15, Hurr, 8 MH. Camille did it in mid-August 1969. That season had 18 named storms, 12 Hurricanes, 3 MH. Dean: August 18, 2007. 15 named storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 MH. Not really any other examples before late August. Andrew was next, Aug 23-24, 1992. Those were the earliest examples in the Atlantic. I'm surprised there aren't more.

CPC is predicting a widespread drought starting late Summer everywhere but tropical Florida After I think the warmest Dec-Jun on record for the CONUS, look at this current July forecast: https://ibb.co/Hxqg6yx https://ibb.co/YZX9q97 https://ibb.co/qWS9LZV

1980 had the earliest Cat 5 for a while when Allen reached it on August 5. That season had 9 Hurricanes, 2 MH. 2005 then did it in July, when Emily did it on July 16. That season had 28 NS, 15, Hurr, 8 MH. Camille did it in mid-August 1969. That season, in the middle of -AMO had 18 named storms, 12 Hurricanes, 3 MH. Dean: August 18, 2007. 15 named storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 MH. Not really any other examples before late August. Andrew was next, Aug 23-24, 1992. That was an El Nino year.

I think we'll have quieter periods when the MJO becomes unfavorable. But you do see the linear correlation here between SSTs and Storms. With -3c holding in the ENSO subsurface, I think we will get 15-16 named storms at the minimum..

The early season Cat 3+ storms were: Emily 2005 (7-17) 160mph Dennis 2005 (7-10) 145mph Audrey 1957 (6-27) 145mph Unnamed 1926 (7-26) 140mph Alma 1966 (6-8) 125mph Bertha 2008 (7-8) 120mph Unnamed 1916 (7-5) 120mph Unnamed 1916 (7-14) 115mph Unnamed 1945 (6-23) 115mph Able 1951 (5-21) 115mph Anna 1961 (7-21) 115mph Bertha 1996 (7-6) 115mph Average for these seasons 15.3 NS/yr (long term average is 9-10) 8.8 Hurr/yr (long term average is 5) 4.7 MH/yr (long term average is 2-3) (if there were 2 storms in the same year, I used that year twice.)

Apr-May-Jun SOI average comes in at -2 The highest monthly reading we've actually had since March 2023 is +3.96.

Since 1995, we have seen a Cat 1+ develop before July 15, 11 times. I know it's not saying much, but that's only 42% of the time. The average for those seasons is, 16.5 NS, 8.7 Hurr, 3.8 MH.

Subsurface and the surface are far apart.. but the global pattern is more like the subsurface, saying we are in a Weak Nina, than the surface saying +Neutral. I've researched this back long ways, and found the subsurface has greater correlations to the global pattern than surface SSTs, so if there are differences between the two, I lean toward subsurface being the greater variable. It's holding -3c anomalies in the central region at -200m, and that has organized a bit in the last day or so... so let's see if these -3 to -4c readings in the central subsurface continue to hold like they have been since February.. A Strong La Nina peak does not look very possible. Almost all of those years had more La Nina stuff happening right now.

I've seen your research before about how rare -NAO's have been lately. I've done my own research that shows that 16/16 of the Winter months (DJFM) since 2013, with a NAO >1.11 have all been positive! Also I found that the Winter NAO has been positive something like 37 of the last 43 Winter months. The big differences started in the early 2010s (2013-2024). There was something I was reading that showed Atlantic sea levels rising/falling 2011-2022 to fit a perfect +NAO progression. But the CPC's measurement is weird. We have had some strong Greenland blocks lately, and not very negative NAO readings. I think they heavily weight the mid-latitude region at about 40-45N that runs from the east coast to the central-north Atlantic. That region has been warmer, making that part of their NAO measurement positive, despite high pressures in the Upper latitudes at the same times. This has especially occurred since the Winter of 2018-19. You might just want to run H5 anomaly maps and make your own NAO index.

I don't think we really have enough data.. and there are all kinds of different things that happen with the sun that effect us in different ways. I did correlate Jupiter's movement in the sky with the NAO before, it was pretty strong at its peak, like +30%. I think the actual correlation with Solar Max to +NAO is probably lower than the +0.2 to +0.3 those charts show. I would think it may even fuel a High pressure over Greenland, and a more volatile pattern.