Stormchaserchuck1

I'm just impressed with how the ENSO subsurface connects with what is happening globally. SOI has been negative the last 4 days: 13 Jul 2024 1011.20 1010.70 -2.77 12 Jul 2024 1009.77 1012.40 -22.04 11 Jul 2024 1010.29 1014.45 -31.46 10 Jul 2024 1012.55 1014.15 -15.70 In 95-96, the Winter that went +PNA during a La Nina, the central-subsurface was Neutral-Positive throughout the Winter. There are many such examples of the surface and subsurface diverging, and the H5 pattern, or things like hurricanes, matching the subsurface Technically, an upwelling wave is a Rossby wave. Kelvin waves have to do more with a lowering of the thermocline and developing subsurface warmth.

Near the Azores if I remember correctly. It seems like every year lately we set a new milestone

It's probably a 20 hour drive to Buffalo, NY. You should do it. I was driving through the south recently, and can't really believe how short term this current climate cycle is regarding the trees and wildlife.. I imagined it could be very cold and snowy in the south at times, but it's just so sensitive to every little mile these days.

ONI was +0.1 for DJF 89-90. The La Nina died in May 1989, and kept warming through the year.. per ONI, definitely not a Weak La Nina But I remember in 05-06, we were using 89-90 as an analog for the Winter, because of the strong -QBO, rising, and maybe neg Neutral ENSO conditions. It worked out pretty good.

The 3 years that stand out compared to their predecessors for Atlantic activity, 1995, 2005, and 2020 did have a Wintertime -NAO in the midst of a +NAO general time.. but I think give it like 20 examples over 200 years, the correlation would be less than 0.1. Still, this is interesting, I guess

Real nice subsurface cold.. -5c, approaching -6c on the TAO/Triton maps in the last day.. It's right where you want it in the central-subsurface region too, for highest effect. Will be interesting to see if we can develop a cooling trend at the surface in the coming weeks. Obviously, the N. Hemisphere H5 is correlation with the subsurface 500mb doesn't care that the surface is still +Neutral

Nice catch with the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming.. the QBO just turned positive last month, and the La Nina is still weak, so the strong correlation with both of those phases to 10mb is not really in effect yet.. obviously I can do roll forwards that will probably show a higher chance for northern Hemisphere Strat warming in the cold season, but with both of those indexes (QBO, ENSO) strengthening, it shifts things a bit. Still, it's nice to see somewhat of a positive factor for Winter cold, since everything N. Hemisphere has been warm ad nauseam.

I think you guys are overestimating hurricanes.. the thermocline is where real value is, for pattern effect. That lies 100-250meters below the surface, and hurricanes rarely reach that far in depth of spinning up the oceans.

That 604dm ridge is so impressive! We are still 2 weeks from the hottest point of the year, and the Atlantic broke it by 4dm! I'm saying.. the jet stream is really lifting north right now. I always thought that the standard deviation of blocks over Alaska, Greenland, and the Arctic would match the general warming that is happening, but over the last few years they have acted "capped". As long as we only max out near previous record in those locations, the mid-latitudes will torch.

I don't know.. my grass is always green. 20 years ago there were brown spots that have since filled in.

Precip has been way above average for the last 22 years.. not 1 moderate drought. The odds of that happening are probably 1/10, if not 1/20

I remember reading something about recurves being the biggest variable, they were connecting it with the NAO. I think you need a really neutral climate for such a thing to occur.

I would think if we develop any kind of drought it will increase our risk for tropical cyclones. For the last 10-20 years, just about everytime we have started to go drier, it has rained much greater than the leading dry period. I've seen it happen 25/25 times lately. We haven't had a true drought since 2002, and hurricane hits on the SE coast have been way below average during that time..

Low pressure at 500mb over Alaska always busts warm locally.

I don't see why Beryl ACE 36 is going to effect the Winter.. It tracked very far south in July. The correlation is turning up N. Atlantic waters late Summer/early Fall, but even that is a very, very small thing. Usually it's the larger pattern producing X effects (cyclones) that has the weight/correlation, but +AMO/-PDO/La Nina, which is why it's likely going to be a high ACE year, is not really a cold Winter composite. Humans can be a variable too though, I guess. I noticed changes in the weather pattern when Beryl was hitting..

Finally the June map on Climate Divison data updated Dec-Jun 2023-4 This might be the warmest Dec-Jun on record for the CONUS. July is very above average month. Besides the heat that is ongoing now in the East and West, here is the forecast for the end of the month: But it hasn't been an organic warm period, we've had a +EPO/+NAO in the upper latitudes, which matches analogs of the past, and that is usually the best way we get country-wide heat. Here are 30 analogs that I came up with for Dec-July: The following Winter season (Dec-Feb): (scale is the same lol.. one is hand picked, the other is +6-14 months)

+NAO in January also favors country-wide warmth A lot of these models just take what's happening and initialize it out.. You probably have to pay to get really good products. 5 +NAO periods since January, so now all the seasonal models have +NAO. I would guess their forecasting accuracy for that specific thing is not that high. That's why I like to look at Natural Gas futures primarily. They crushed the Euro last Winter.

Another day with highs in the upper 80s in Florida. I left a few days before the June heat wave began. Talk about good timing. For all the talk about how warm Atlantic SSTs are, they are still not really comparable to all the ridging happening up north and on the West Coast. Maybe the AMO is not decadal, and it's just a reflection of warmer global conditions..

Told you guys it would bust warmer.. +EPO patterns are often underestimated on medium range models, especially when coupled with +NAO. As long as it doesn't rain, low pressure over Alaska keeps the ridge progressing higher and higher shorter term..

Subsurface was turning positive pretty early in 2023: In the central-ENSO region (west-based) March-June 2023 was greater positive than even most of the El Nino event. We have a colder subsurface this year, although it is starting to warm again in the last few days. Look at this -PNA though since the central-subsurface went cold in March this year This is while we've had +Neutral at the surface.

This region has the highest correlation to Winter NAO Now we are going to be warming this further in the next few days with a record breaking ridge developing over the eastern part of the box: We'll be looking at a pretty high index reading by mid-July.

SSTs also aren't super above average in the tropics like they were a few months ago.. as the averages climbed, the deviation evened out a bit. All the heat is migrating to the N. Atlantic, where a strong High pressure is suppose to set up for the next few weeks continuing the warmth there..

That area in the Atlantic where the max ridge is going to occur actually has a strong correlation to the following Winters NAO (warm SSTs there in the Summer lead +NAO Winters).

July is going to be a very warm month for the CONUS. This is going to make Dec-July one of the warmest on record, if not the warmest for the lower 48. Roll forward of 30 top analogs going back to 1948 (which is 40% of the dataset) shows a ridiculous strong signal for the following September through March: +3-4F anomalies over a 7-month period, covering 40% of the dataset is pretty ridiculous signal. Law of averages says it should be ~+1F (since I am using + and - years, somewhat muting the overall warming trend). I guess here locally continuum trumps. I've been waiting for the June map to update, once it does ill post comparison to what we have seen vs analogs used above.

Climate models have a heavy ENSO bias.. they didn't estimate that the subsurface would cool so much going into the Winter last year. I agree with what they are showing now.. -PNA/+NAO. There is going to be a 601-602dm ridge in the N. Atlantic in the coming days over the area that has a pretty big summertime SST correlation to Wintertime NAO.. warm water there favors +NAO. It seems like recent seasonal model runs have been going more +NAO. It may also be that they just weigh heavily on trends.. as this will be our 5th solid +NAO burst since the start of the year (negative H5 over Greenland and Davis Strait), which was more than the last few years combined. It also seems like the Sun spikes in May really led some good +NAO..