Stormchaserchuck1

Also, the only two times since 2010 the N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor was this positive was 2018 and 2013. We had 15 NS and 14NS, and 2 MH, 0 MH in those years. I said before, if there is a correlation between ACE and -NAO in the Winter, maybe there is a chicken/egg equation there.. I think it's probably because global factors hold a state that is correlation, not because of the actual storms, but because the same things leading to X have the same result..

How had cyclones in other parts of the world been doing vs the Atlantic? I thought I read somewhere it was 125% vs 175%. We had been running above even the SST curve..

I don't think the AMO is going cold because we have 5 NS half way through the season. Atlantic SSTs are still very warm. In the Caribbean and GOM, they have borderlined record warm since the Spring. I plotted the AMO going back to when it's warm phase began in 1995, then smoothed it out. It seems that a rising phase is still underway. Remember, we averaged 9-10 NS/yr for a very long time, 100 years.. through warm and cold phases AMO's. so that we're sitting at 5 NS still here in August has us actually a little bit ahead of the long term average. It just shows how favorable the pattern has been, and I think a large part of that is the 65% La Nina events vs El Nino since the AMO went + in 1995. Look at what we have going on now in the ENSO subsurface.. Neutral

You really think so? Just using global warming or persistence, there is a 3/4 - 4/5 chance that January '25 will be warmer than average.. There exists some skill in ENSO, the PDO, and even S. Hemisphere conditions over their Winter rolled forward.. not super high predictability, but you can definitely manage some skill. I think the signs for the hurricane season drying up were there when the cap was not breaking for anything in the East in the Spring and Early Summer. 9 NS/yr for 100 years is also quite a datapoint, so sometimes the longer term average comes back to prevail.

It's funny that this is happening just as the SOI goes solidly positive for the first time in 18 months.. I'm convinced that there is some kind of "take" on weather, for example: If the stock market has up indicators, everyone buys it up and drops its price lower.

I don't think it's because of the +NAO the season has been slow. The clues came in May-July when the east coast, US was super dry, and the cap was not breaking for anything, despite very hot temperatures. That seemed to be a pattern that carried across the Atlantic. Also, two years ago we had 14 NS during a La Nina, so that was a trend break. There was expected to be a pretty strong La Nina for the hurricane season this year, and what we have is Neutral, so all that's really going for it is the warm SSTs and you know that that is a very general factor. It doesn't look like Weak La Nina conditions will develop for the 2nd half of the season, although the subsurface ENSO is in Weak-Nina range.

It's rare. These correlations aren't perfect, but what we've seen lately is the normal 0.30-0.40 correlation with the PDO, being about 0.60. I think we have a warm Sept-Nov coming for the CONUS, as there is a really strong correlation with the PDO in the Fall season. Going back to 1948, it has a >0.60 correlation in NW Canada (+EPO)! Having a -2 to -3 pdo should set the tone for some above normal ridging going forward.

Highest temperature even recorded in Australia in the Winter today, 106F. This is after the great -4 to -5 AAO. I think the same pattern is present, and for some reason these negative AO and AAO events are accompanied by warmer temperatures in the mid latitudes +days. I say that to have an average to good Winter in the east, we absolutely need the Pacific in tune.

We're getting it up there though.. I think it will probably finish in the top 25th percentile. I do get a little nervous though when it is a H5 pattern carrying the thing.. so you could basically say +NAO leads +NAO, but if there was relative strength in the Atlantic subsurface/SSTs, it would have higher value I think. +NAO Winter looks probable, but I would probably forecast a bit lower than the index comes out (even though the CPC has been really weighing +nao events high since 2013, 16/16 of Winter months >1.11 have all been +NAO!). It's likely the CPC again has a higher nao number than the H5 pattern this Winter.

And May was even the most -PNA on record for May. The -PDO correlation has been carrying for a long time, even when it correlated more with the N. Pacific pattern than a +1.8c El Nino last Winter.

Nov 1-15: +45 days Nov 15-30: +40 days Dec 1-15: +35 days Dec 15-30: +30 days Jan 1-15: +25 days Jan 15-30: +25 days Feb 1-15: +20 days Feb 15-28: +20 days March 1-15: +15 days March 15-30: +15 days

Yeah, I'm hopeful that we can get some -EPO this Winter. They usually don't last for more than a few days, but when we had -epo last Winter, Kansas City had a wind chill of -35F! It is definitely still possible to see big time Winter cold..

We had a RNA block make it past +600dm in Dec 2021! Because of how we started seeing big RNA anomalies in Feb-March 2009, then it picked up over time in the same months, I'm thinking RNA-December is a new trend that is also picking up..

Interesting.. I mean in good Winter's, the pattern just goes crazy cold in the preceding Fall's. I think this was the case in 95-96, too.. Big time +PNA or -EPO. People have also done research making December a hot month for the following Winter.. this is more common sense stuff though, cold begets cold, warm begets warm. It seems to be intensified for the last 30 years though.

We still had a very -PDO pattern in Sept 2013.. that's what I'm referring to. But when the pattern doesn't change in the Fall's of those -PDO's, it usually carries into the Winter.. SSTs are more secondary to the atmospheric pattern though.

You'll find that October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation to the Winter's NAO state.. so it may be a backwards way of doing things, but if we are expecting a +nao Winter, I would look for a -NAO October. And because of what's been correlating globally, I would say watch out for a -PNA and maybe +EPO pattern in October too.

-PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that..

I've observed by looking at models every day for the last 5 years. You can see it on daily climate composites, but you'll have to look at it day-by-day, the correlation picked up in Winter 2018-19 and after. It's about a 0.40 correlation since 2019 (+pna/-epo during or around +nao, and -pna/+epo at or around -nao), and 0.25 to 0.30 since 2013.

Look at this +NAO (again)! 2024 has been the year of +NAO's. I think this is our 8th bout, after having a total of 3 in the last 4 years.

The interesting thing is that the WPO does have a tendency to reverse to a slight -EPO signal. This is the wild card variable to a warmer Winter in the NE/Great Lakes. Dec-Jul 2023-24 was among the most +WPO times on record. This is 8 months before (notice the slight -epo) And this is 8 months after Before again- So there is a little bit of a tendency for the +WPO to reverse for the cold season. This also goes along with with the slight -epo/+nao correlation that has been occurring since 2013. -EPO patterns last 7-12 days, so it's very possible that we will get some cold shots in the midst of a warmer Winter.

Things like the PDO and NAO will probably be on top of the list of known drivers. The interesting thing is, the roll-forwards I have been doing never showed a La Nina map, except for maybe February, with the warmest Winter temp anomalies always being in the Midwest and Great Lakes.

This is the problem with La Nina though Maybe the enhanced trades models are predicting will deepen the subsurface again, but without the SOI really catching up, it's possible that the deeply negative subsurface we saw before will not able to sustain itself through the Fall and Winter.

Here are the 7 highest Natural Gas years since 1995 We are currently (August) #2 lowest, since 1995, behind only 1998 [98-99] (2.1 vs 1.8). But the Crude Oil/NG spread (which takes out things like inflation) is the lowest right now for August all-time.

Natural Gas is also really low right now.. lower even than last year. Since 1995, these are the 5 matching years to what we have so far The Winter H5 map is a really strong signal. 2.12.. Last year at this time it was 2.5, and last year even qualifies as a top 5 lowest. If you think it's going to be a cold Winter buy up those Natural Gas Futures!

Minus means "opposite". Since the satellite data goes back only 75 years, it gives more examples. You are basically looking at a core reading, and focusing also on the opposite reading over that area, and what it produced. Now averages may not always be perfect, so there is some lesser value in the method, but when you get both sides of a signal giving a strong roll forward, you know you have something with higher confidence than just the few matching examples.