Stormchaserchuck1

Greenland has seen the strongest negative H5 anomaly in the N. Hemisphere in about 3-4 years, this Summer. Some people and climate models might latch onto that and say, there is a chance. The thing is though, there is a strong correlation to Summer SSTs in the N. Atlantic with the following Winter's NAO, and that deep trough had made the predictive area move into a SST range that has a +NAO likelihood for the Winter. I have tested that NAO formula out real time since 2005, and it's 9-9, within the standard deviation of 0.54. Right now the NAO-predictor index is running about +0.35, making the 50% odds that the NAO runs -0.19 to +0.89 for DJFM. But the index runs out to September, and what we have seen lately is warming, so it may finish >+0.50 for the year, giving us like a 75% chance that it will be a +NAO Winter.

I think that what we are seeing is a "global stabilization", and the data for Nino 4 shows a gradual, linear increase year-to-year. This makes things like the RONI have more weight, because it is considering the relative-index correlation to ENSO. No negative anomalies here north of 50S since 2015: Ultimately, the continued warm conditions on the surface are probably making it likely that Nino 4 doesn't see a dip into La Nina range this year. The "shut down" of global extremes has made the Tropical Pacific, closer to the America's, hold all the weight, on the opposite side of Pacific Ocean High pressure systems. This has made Nino 3 have more variance than Nino 4, since about year 2000. Since the surface is holding warm waters, partially associated with a neutral SOI, it's hard to imagine the La Nina does eventually make it far west. Climate models were showing a west-based Nina this past Winter, but Nino 3 seems to be the core area now. This is another reason I like to use the subsurface. We have seen this central-subsurface region organized since mid-February this year. And, ta-da, the N. Pacific pattern has been this strongly correlated to the central-ENSO subsurface: With it being a hot Summer this year and likely a Weak La Nina ONI peak, I can see 1995 being an analog for some. The thing to note is, the subsurface in 1995 was deeply negative during the Summer, and moderated to Neutral for the Winter: This led to a hot Summer (like this year), and an active Hurricane season. But there are actually warm anomalies in the subsurface that following Winter. There is no automatic that the subsurface won't moderate in the Fall like it did in 1995, but unless it does, 95-96 is not a good analog in my opinion.

The +EPO has been especially strong in this Dec-July period. A lot of time though, the EPO "evens out" in the time after a strong phase, so there is some hope I think for -EPO periods this Winter, or maybe beyond. -PDO usually continues +epo though, at least through the Fall..

The top 30 analogs to US-based warmth that we have seen Dec-July (which I think this year is #1 all time), are very warm into the following March. December is the one month that is near average in that roll-forward, but every other month goes like +2 to +5.

Actually, we had -PNA conditions during last years El Nino, so I could argue that it's been La Nina conditions for 8 years in a row.. although the STJ was strong last year, and global precipitable water spiked. This is just an amazing map, because it features 14 months, over a 7-year-consecutive period. Going back to 1948, we've never seen an anomaly greater.. #2 was +95dm over the -NAO region 1964-1969, and I think that was just for a 1-month period. The pattern starts right after the N. Hemisphere's coldest day of the year (Jan 27th), which I don't think is a coincidence. It's my personal opinion that the wave hit in 2013. I was personally observing the sun shining brighter and hotter way before the 2015+ period even came to be. So again, this is just personal conjecture but I think the 14-16 +PDO and El Nino was an opposite wave to what was happening. I would say sun spikes if I didn't know better, but we have definitely seen something a major change/pattern take place, after 2013 (you say Dec 2015.) It's especially seen in the Pacific. I think a secondary wave came in 2018-2019, and since then the -NAO has been correlation with -PNA and +EPO, and +PNA/+NAO and -EPO. It will be interesting to see if that eases up or changes in the next few years.. ENSO climatology/roll forward says we have a good shot at +PNA 2026-2028.

Looks like they are holding onto a +EPO again. To clarify, +EPO pattern (cold anomaly over Alaska) is different from the global warming trend. It's the top index-pattern for warmth across the US. The +EPO correlation to -PDO has been strong over the last few years. The -PDO has its highest correlation in the Fall, so if this forecast hold, we can very well expect a warmer to much warmer than average Sept-Nov.

The Winter following a Super El Nino (peak ONI 2.0 or greater): Actually makes some sense, because El Nino's are associated with global warming, that takes some time to offset, although that is a -PNA map so again, the reversal post-ENSO is a pretty strong signal.

The correlation should be opposite following El Nino's. 51-59 was 4/8 El Nino, and no years were borderline making it a close call for El Nino qualification.. Summer 1952 hit +0.2 ONI but that's the highest besides the linear up and down of ENSO. In there were 2 La Nina's too.. so 4 El Nino's and 2 La Nina's, and 2 Neutral's in 8 years.. I don't think that really matches 4/5 consecutive ENSO years. I thought you might find the research interesting though. It kind of goes with the El Nino tendency in +3-6 years that we were finding after a Strong El Nino (completely different variable, matching). It seems our sweet spot just per ENSO roll forwards is +3-4 Winters from now (26-28), with a slightly better chance next year vs this year. La Nina's are a cold water phase, and global cooling has been known to match it, just like global warming has been known to match El Nino's, so it actually makes a little bit of sense that a long term bunch of these years would precede some cooler conditions. I always say be careful being down on La Nina's, because they are actually a cold climate phase. A La Nina this year might be associated with a PNA reverse afterward, who knows?

A La Nina this year will make it 4/5 years that we have had La Nina conditions lately. Those similar cases were actually followed by some good Winters in the years after: 2007-2012, 4 La Nina's in 5 years. Winters 13-14 and 14-15 were cold. 1995-2001, 4 La Nina's in 6 years. 02-03 was cold, 03-04 and 04-05 were good snow years in the NE north of 40N. 1970-1976, 5 La Nina's in 6 years. 76-77, 77-78 and 78-79 were among the coldest Winter's on record. Combined First 3 Winters after 4/5-6 year La Nina's: Years +2-3: *No cases yet of 4/5-6 El Nino years. 63-70 and 76-83 were 4/7 El Nino years. Following 3 Winter's: + and - put together [to default La Nina] shows the PNA usually reverses in the following 3 Winters: Extra month: March, combined, years +2-3: March all 3 years after 4/5-6 La Nina's total minus two 4-7 year El Nino's: pretty good little signal there. I find it interesting that you have a tendency for the PNA to reverse, when the PDO is sort of a culmination index of conditions run forward, so consistency should be, if the PDO has correlation weight. But you see the opposite happen. Precip for the 3 La Nina bunches minus the 2 El Nino bunches (Combined First 3 years after):

Yeah, I've been surprised by this Summer. If we hit 104 last July, there would have been some awesome lightning shows.

Kind of easily too. We had some favorable index patterns, but imagine if we had a trough dig into the West or Midwest..

NE MD always gets more than enough rain.

Looks like the heat returns for a few days at the end of the month. DCA might do its record 8th 80+ low temp if the GEFS verifies.

Now that we broke some of the cap today, tomorrow should be a better severe weather day I would think. I wanted us to get really hot for good storms, but we held too much cap this year.

AO/NAO have been positive since ~June 18, it's probably about a +1.5 index for that time. We've actually seen pretty strong cold 500mb (over Greenland and NE Canada), for the first time in a while in the N. Hemisphere, this Summer. The ice melt is kind of surprising in that regard, and is happening in the same areas as before, north of Alaska and on the Pacific Ocean side. The cold anomaly looks to continue over the Arctic circle for the next 15 days.

More organized negative subsurface this time.. especially compared to 2017. It's 200m below the central-west region, which is the most time lagged correlation. If I had to guess, that central-western part of the subsurface at the thermocline leads Nino 3/1.2 by as much as +45 days.

+EPO patterns always bust higher.. especially in the Wintertime

Still looking like strong correlation with -ENSO at the 384hr model range all hail the subsurface!

I might take the over. +EPO patterns (500mb low over Alaska) usually bust a few degrees warmer from this range. Only way we stay under 103-104 in DC I think is if precip tomorrow interferes. 100 today and the pattern is only getting warmer..

Baltimore's forecast is 101 tomorrow. 102 Tuesday

If cyclones around the world are not as above average as the Atlantic since 1995, then that is something to watch, as you can say that we have already been hitting the peak part of the potential. I haven't done the research, but if the rest of the globe is say 125%, while the Atlantic is 200%, then I would have a hard time forecasting a record number of storms, and the max end ranges of CSU and NHC of 25 storms could be a little bit of a stretch, given that you would need absolutely perfect conditions for the majority of the season. With that being said, the central-ENSO subsurface looks very healthy in the direction of La Nina, with max anomalies of -5c to -6c today. I've found that this subsurface region has higher correlation to global impacts than surface SSTs, and with the surface taking time to cool, knowing that there is a stronger correlated region could be the difference between expecting 15-20 storms (Neutral) vs 20-25 storms (La Nina). Right now it looks like a Moderate La Nina in the subsurface, while Nino 3.4 is Neutral. 1995, 2005, 2020 were all years where the ENSO subsurface was much colder than the surface from the Summer through September.

If that Atlantic SST predictor area is going super positive right now, and high ACE correlates to -NAO's(?) Maybe it won't be such a high ACE.. hard to believe the potential energy isn't there though when there was a Cat 5 on July 1. Also, subsurface ENSO, approaching -6c right now I think is a lower shear signal for the heart of the season vs the Neutral SST stuff that is continuing.. based on historical analysis of the two variables. Here are three examples: neg subsurface Aug-Oct 1995 colder subsurface than surface Aug-Oct 2005 colder subsurface originally in Aug-Oct 2020

The strongest correlation is -QBO/El Nino = +10mb in cold season, and +QBO/La Nina = -10mb in cold season I came up with the theory in 2008, but since then the NAO has actually held somewhat of an opposite correlation to 10mb, but the 10mb effect of the two variables has held. We had I think 4 Stratosphere warmings last Winter.

DT mentions a lot the cooler scenarios to internet audience, but when he makes forecasts to his paid clients, he usually goes warmer. I agree with you that the La Nina still looks healthy in developing.

I certainly wouldn't go cold in the Great Lakes and Northeast with a cold anomaly over Alaska and Greenland. I think they are latching onto what has happened in July, with a +EPO and cold in the center of the country, which is opposite of what usually happens in +EPO: ^correlation map is reverse I was going to respond to raindancewx this, how odd the cooler weather is there with a +EPO this month. ^two 0.5 correlations disconnecting, pretty rare. These global models initialize what is happening recently and run it out alot. Even more the interesting correlation with ENSO subsurface which is dominating everything right now for forecasting value