Stormchaserchuck1

Best SOI match I can find where it didn't do much all year then started going positive in the Fall is 2007.. If someone has done more in depth research in that regard, correct me if I'm wrong. 1999 waned in the Spring/Summer then strengthened again in the Fall. That's about all I could find going back to 1950. It usually starts going into a phase earlier.

We are also seeing this strong -PNA pattern for the next 15 days as the ENSO subsurface is cooling again.. 30-day SOI finally made it above 10. It seems to be re-organizing further west. This is actually quite a west-based cold pool for this time of year. Imo, that could slim the chances for warm ENSO next year. It also makes it more probable that the La Nina tries to become more west-based at the surface in the coming months. I'm thinking a more west-based subsurface cold pool/La Nina may actually weaken the chances for a -EPO Winter.. we'll have to see how it evolves in the coming time. Those +SSTAs near Japan are very +WPO. All I have going for that counter-argument is that the state of the WPO/EPO usually flips after a long, sustained phase, which have seen on both monthly and yearly scales, and this is the time period where it usually happens.

@40/70 Benchmark See how the -NAO is correlating with -PNA/+EPO. The RNA flexed here, compared to before, when the pattern becomes predominant. It's not perfect, but there is a correlation in place. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

Interesting that 13-14 was cold ENSO right in that spot where I think it has it has a cold correlation I've posted this before but anti-Strong El Nino's: Furthermore, there is not much of a PDO correlation when the highest SSTA's are over that equilateral Pacific coldest water region I contest that true El Nino's (warmest anomaly over equilatoral Pac coldest SST region) are warmer than people think, and true La Nina's are colder than people think. Furthermore, if you go all the way east-based with Nino 1+2 as the dominant region, the mid-latitude cell effect directly north of it is actually over North America, not the Pacific Ocean. Something to keep in mind going forward.. if the La Nina remains strongest in Nino 3. I think a lot of the seasonal models are looking for feedback from the -PDO, trying to make it more west-based..

I'll have to do an updated analysis this week.. I think it's coming in around 0.65-0.70 for DJFM Nice write up on here by the way. It was a good read.

October has been a wet month in the Northeast for the last 20 years

Nice +NAO signal in January with a Sept -PNA

Another thing with the -PNA roll forward, is it might support warming ENSO conditions in the late Winter/Spring:

I would definitely bet on a warm October for the CONUS. The PDO also has a strong correlation in October:

Really strong -PNA on todays 12z GEFS. +300dm, 594dm ridge in a few days. This is, not coincidentally, as ENSO subsurface is cooling again. We will have a near record breaking Aleutian ridge for March-Sept 2024, as ENSO subsurface has been near "Moderate Nina" range the whole time. Next 7 months (correlation is opposite):

It got down into the 40s here last night, and it will be close to that again tonight. The air also feels crisp, cold. I've seen a lot of lightning bugs dying. While we are still not technically in -AMO, I do agree with raindancewx that a colder pattern is coming forth, and this can't really be seen yet by global SSTs, but using cold-phase analogs may be a good way to go. I do think that if not by the Winter, then by the Spring there will be a cold pool somewhere. The problem is that the indicators are still pointing toward unfavorable indexes, but we'll see how that goes.. I have linked the +NAO, which has been near record breaking this year with -EPO, so that may be how it shows itself in future months. 18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA/-PDO for the next 15 days, but sometimes when things are changing the previous state will flare up. I'm also suspicious of that Aura we saw in May. It seems that every color on the color spectrum was hit.

We've definitely hit a 3 year anomaly here. 2 years ago we had 14NS in La Nina, last year we had 21NS in Strong El Nino. The longer term might have had a larger correlation that it should be.. we never did >12 NS in Moderate+ El Nino since 1948 until last year.

I'm going to get into the 40s tonight (5.5 weeks from the hottest day on average of the year)!

Fwiw, Phoenix has had 100 straight 100 degree days. The only three times it ever did it over 50 days were 1993 (76), 1989 (64), and 1935 (61) [donsutherland in the climate change forum] These are cold December's in the composite Feb 1936 lol #4 and #5 in December Edit: I see it's a progression. Well those are the top years for the record at that point. I'm sure we've had plenty of >20 days in the last few decades.

Since 2013, and more since 2019 (I would say 0.30 correlation since 2013 and 0.40 correlation since 2019), -nao has coincided with -pna/+epo and +nao has coincided with +pna/-nao. I bet you will see this tendency again this coming cold season. I only fear with the NAO, that we have exhausted all of the +NAO already this year, as it made a pretty good leap over the past few years. Sometimes it will bounce back around on the monthly scale. Dec 2021 was a good example of this.. +600dm RNA, broke the record by quite a bit, then January '22 featured the opposite pattern, despite a La Nina. A cold 10mb vortex though could amplify High pressure where the Polar Cell and mid-latitude Cell's meet. similar to how it gets warm right before a cold front passes. Put them together I guess.

It's probably because March's correlation with the PNA is near neutral While January has a pretty high correlation If MR models show a snowstorm in January and the PNA is strongly negative, I am going to be posting about it trending warmer at getting like 12 weenies on here lol

I'm all over it. +QBO/La Nina gives us about a 75% probability of having a cold 10mb for the Winter, which is actually a high percentage. I just think that strong PV downwells to amplify RNA conditions, as it has done that for the last 15 years. Of course there is some chance of a Stratosphere warming, but I am less keen on a -NAO of late, because it is not dominating the pattern like the Pacific is.

Add to it the fact that 5 of the last 6 Winter's have been +WPO And it's been super unfavorable, from 3 different uncorrelated areas.

The Pacific is the most extreme ocean and that spot north of Hawaii, south of the Aleutians is a big region for ridges or troughs.. more global High pressure could possibly been seen there, but I think we are like 80-90% in a pattern. La Nina's have happened 14-8 since 1998 (15-8 if this year is La Nina), and that doesn't count the 0.2-0.3 skew for overall warmer waters.

Per the CPC's NAO measurement, since Winter 11-12, 44/52 (84%) Winter months (DJFM) have been +NAO! That's 44-8. In that time, 19/20 >1.11 NAO months have been positive (95%)! Since 13-14, 16/16 Winter months with NAO >1.11 have all been positive. Dec has been +NAO 11 of the last 13 years (85%) January has been +NAO 12 of the last 13 years (92%) February has been +NAO 12 of the last 13 years (92%) March has been +NAO 9 of the last 13 years (72%) The CPC does weigh heavily on the south part of that index, as I've found out (we've had some Greenland blocks but there remained high pressure near the Azores, they call that +nao). And we've had strong -PDO since 2016. So, the Atlantic and Pacific have both been unfavorable together by actually a pretty good standard deviation. Add to it the fact that climate change has been associated with more precipitation/global precipitable water, and I would say that our problems in the Winter with snow have probably been something like 10-15% global warming. A lot of the warm forecasts in this regard are more based on consistency than the average global temperature.

Half of the PDO measurement measures cold water, over the Gulf of Alaska, and Bering Strait.. it's a 50/50 index. so I don't think you can say CC is part of the PDO. The index from 2020-2024 is actually the lowest 4 year stretch ever recorded. The problem is this pattern No other 7-year consecutive time period even comes close to +120dm anomaly. #2 was -NAO Jan 1964-1969, and that was 1-month covering 6 years. That period registered at +95dm.

The Winter looks probably bad.. but it does feel like something long term is shifting. Natural Gas right now is near record lows, and my Winter NAO formula is coming in very +. The good news is history says the EPO/WPO usually shifts, and we are coming off of 5/6 +WPO Winters and a very +WPO Dec-Aug so we might have some -EPO periods (they usually last 7-12 days).

Yeah, we are probably going to need help from the Pacific this Winter, and that's not looking very likely with the La Nina about to approach Weak range. At least the subsurface is moderating.. What we do have going for us is that 5/6 Winters have been +WPO and history says that's more likely to flip.. nothing scientific about that, it just has a historical tendency to fluctuate back and forth. The monthly QBO number should be out in a couple of days, and that will tell us how positive this phase is going to get. A lot of factors are pointing to a warm Winter.. I would say 4/4 with the wild card being the N. Pacific High possibly extending north. I know the Futures market is betting on a warm Winter, if someone thinks it's going to be cold, this would be a nice time to buy.. The PDO really correlates to our weather in the Fall.. this cool down in the East lately is actually because of shorter wavelengths as the Pacific warm pool is holding a High pressure and we have a GOA low.. if this Pacific pattern happened in the Winter, it would be warm. La Nina/+QBO in the cold season does support a stronger 10mb vortex, which imo translates to +AO and RNA. That's why I was hoping ENSO would stay warm, but it's made a little bit of a move in the last few days.

I also don't know why I have to wear a name tag.. the board was dead, no posts.. so I made like 10 posts in 2 minutes. Got tagged 3 years ago and worn it since lol. It seems petty.. no one even posts in OT.

Wow! Big time lag in global ACE (173 vs 250). That's like 70% while the Atlantic had been running 180%. Thanks If I had known this, I would have gone more conservative on the season lol