Stormchaserchuck1

Actually, you might be able to kiss this La Nina goodbye.. those are some weak subsurface anomalies.

Yeah, maybe I will. I feel like a lot of what would be discussed has been posted in this thread.. will have to go back and put it all back together

Good job. Those H5 composites for the Winter looks almost exactly like mine would.

18z GFS initialized the Greenland block at >5820dm. Looks like a +500dm anomaly.

Why were the 1980s and 90s +PDO? We also just had a healthy +PDO not too long ago from '14-16. I don't think seasonal forecasts are doing bad.. the -PDO/Strong El Nino composite worked about perfectly for N. America last Winter.

PDO correlation is really working

There actually is a near neutral correlation, believe it or not. This is +1 year from a September PDO event: Winter PNA for 2025-26 is also actually near 0 to the following years Fall PDO (+14-18 months). It could also just be that the data is limited. I do think the ENSO subsurface cold pool orienting back west recently is a damper on El Nino chances for 25-26.

18z GEFS has an Aleutian ridge extending to Japan Oct 1-5. Pretty good chance this is a solidly negative PDO Winter (correlation is opposite, default is positive) Poor New Mexico lol

Some of these Summer patterns with warmth on the West coast do roll forward to a +pna/-epo chance for Dec and Jan. If we have a -PNA ridge, and I've talked to you about this before, a -PNA ridge due to the La Nina and -3 PDO, it may help the NAO go neutral to negative when that happens.. but I think if the +NAO is a strong signal, which it is, we may have some 10-day periods this Winter where the Pacific is favorable. most likely in Dec-Jan.

My NAO formula, based on data since 1948, says we have a 50% chance of having DJFM NAO 0.00 to +1.10 (per CPC calculations). Now lately we have had some Greenland ridging while the CPC calls it a +NAO, so the AO may have a better chance of being neutral to negative. But that's a pretty high SD for at least a moderately positive NAO this Winter.

I think that the progression favors a +NAO Winter.. It works better with Oct -NAO, but late Sept might be close enough

We are kind of due for a -WPO/-EPO Winter, 5 of the last 6 Winter's have been positive, and the one year that was not was Neutral. The WPO doesn't have much to do with the PDO in the Winter months Maybe more negative phases of those indexes has something to do with +NAO? I've certainly observed this Pacific-Atlantic correlation since 2013, and it actually goes all the way back to 2007.

Yeah.. we are progressing well with decadal trends this year so far.. it's actually been very similar. Now this N. American ridge, -NAO, and -PNA in late Sept/Oct is even more confirmation that we are on course with the last few years. It's hard to predict below average anywhere these days, but I think a strong -PNA for the Winter may actually take some time to build. We may see some chaos as it starts this Winter, especially early on (a lot points to RNA Feb as the decadal trend here is +120dm Aleutian ridge as the mean for Feb-Mar since 2018). I wouldn't say expect a colder than normal Dec-Jan, but watch for maybe some pattern breaks during this time..

Just some random thoughts.. but I have seen when something goes so extreme, something may attempt to "even it out" in the shorter term. Here is Dec-Jan 55-56 (after most -PDO month on record, Oct 1955, as so-what's-happening pointed out) In December 2021, the -PNA was so strong.. going >+600dm for several days, that in January it reversed with a +PNA, despite a La Nina. Then in January in following years we saw -PNA conditions The Winter after 55-56: Side note, but Phoenix has broken it's record of most 100+ degree days by 37 days! Here is what those "new data points" look like in December-January (for >38 as a baseline) I could be completely wrong, and the PDO may just have it's usual correlation from this point on.. but it will be interesting to see if the atmosphere swings, re: something so new and extreme (and some data points to Dec-Jan). I've just noticed this happening a lot from 2021-2024. Made a thread about it a long time ago, and predicted some +1 year periods correctly, based on the opposite of an extreme monthly value the year before. I agree that it will be interesting to see the Fall and Winter progress I think if heavy -PNA isn't hit this Winter, it will hit next Winter.

They have about a 0.80 correlation.. the accuracy has improved over the years. That the ridge is over such a large area in the N. Pacific on the mean adds some validity.

Trying to build that Aleutian ridge on LR models.. look at how it extends back to Japan.

That N. Pacific warm pool is so strong, and the La Nina is turning west-based! I wouldn't be surprised if Sept has a PDO <-3 after seeing that.

They might not be unrelated though. I made a prediction in this thread a while back that when the Fall pattern started (late Sept into Oct), we would probably see a -NAO and -PNA. This has been the way it has progressed over the years, over and over again. It might be something in the overall global pattern that causes Oct and the Winter NAO to be opposite. I just know that when you have both signs of an index showing the same thing (seems like you did it for +October's.. it works for -October's too), it should have some level of credence. Edit: I would be interested to know if it works the same recently. My thoughts are it still has a -correlation, but not as strong as before. We have seen a good amount of -NAO Oct's lately, and we know that Winter's have been mostly +NAO per CPC calculations.. Now doing a quick research, The last 5 years have all been -NAO Octobers. 5 +NAO Winter's. From '01-14 we had 12/14 -NAO October's.. and you say that the Winter NAO has only been negative 4 times since 1979? Seems to work imo.

Use the whole dataset.. + and - events for JFM vs October. Try it out for amplitude >0.50 and >1.00 events in October. On this site below, it does the whole thing as a correlation composite for you. (Before I found out about that, I had calculated it manually in the past, and came up with the same results.) https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/ Dec is 50-51% The highest reverse correlation is March. CPC NAO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table What you will find is that both positive, and negative NAO phases reverse in JFM, and even if you do DJFM for the Winter as a whole

Jan-Feb-March is where the heaviest correlation hits. But this based on the whole dataset, 1948-2023, 75 years, not just 6 years. You can research it for yourself on the CPC NAO data. I think we talked about this last year. I find it interesting, because no other month of the year has a <50% correlation, then all of a sudden October is 45%. When you have 76 years of data, that tells me the signal is at least mathematically neutral, not positive.. of course over like 200 years it may be closer to 50%.

In January-February-March, the October NAO actually has a pretty good opposite correlation with the NAO of those months.. it's about 45%. This is impressive because no other months of the year have a correlation <50%. Default of these maps is positive, so it's showing after a + index state I know this -NAO is falling into the realm of September, but just barely.. because it's the last few days of the month, it probably has a 49% correlation to the Winter NAO (since Oct is 45% and Sept is 51%).

We've never really had good WR's. Lamar has great vision, and I'm surprised that he is such a good QB being a natural athlete. usually someone with his speed (which there aren't that many people) isn't going to be great at throwing, which he is. He ran into my sister at a restaurant once right before a game, then threw his 3rd perfect QB rating against Detroit (ties Kurt Warner for NFL record). I was like.. "wow, he must do this stuff naturally".

For your 666th post in this thread. 33 lol Then there is only this member browsing 3-3-13 lol Don't feel bad, I was doing something money related and e pluribus unum was the only one browsing lol

A long time ago, I found that patterns on the West Coast, and especially the SW, US, lead us farther east by a significant amount of time, and the correlation was fairly high. This worked on both monthly and yearly, and even decadal scales. With the West Coast having an exceptionally warm Summer, and places like Las Vegas and Phoenix breaking their records by as much as +2F, I made a composite of 23 analogs since 1948, and rolled that forward to not this Winter (I found there is a slight +pna correlation this Winter, as the pattern seems to carry and not spread at that shorter amount of time), but the following Winter (25-26). A long time ago all my roll forwards were within +1F, as I didn't know what to really look for, but now these things have pretty strong signals. Here's the +16-20 month period (DJF 25-26): +5F max for 23/75 analogs (>30% of the total dataset) is pretty strong. I think the SW, US is kind of a global warming center, as they generate their own conditions, not so much index driven, especially in the Summer.

12z GEFS.. N. Pacific ridge reloads and reloads, then there is a big Aleutian ridge for early Oct. We are having this year a really high correlation between the ENSO subsurface and N. Pacific ridge.. when the subsurface went negative in mid-February, the ridge started happening and it has held strong now all the way through October.