Stormchaserchuck1

Lamar Jackson is now the 7th highest paid QB after Tua and Jordan Love lol. The Ravens got real lucky signing him. But if you look at teams records vs QB after year 2001, the QB position is still underpaid vs cap!

Not a bad little pattern for the warmest day of the year, on average (~July 27-28)

I think for a max correlation over the continental US, you want something exactly in between the PNA and PNA-associated with EPO combo. 50/50 could be the max correlation reading, as a hybrid between the two patterns so you get the Upper Midwest and the Southeast on the same page, call it a N. Pacific low at 40N. But the classic PNA does not have a high correlation over the Northeast, despite a lot of what you hear, you are right about that. If you look at precip, the classic PNA actually comes in drier than colder over the East, making all things equal, not a very high snow-correlated pattern. It does have much lower SLP correlation on the coast though. So stronger storms with not as much moisture is +PNA. El Nino of course is inversely related to that: So when you get a +PNA in non-El Nino, it is especially dry. And -PNA in non-La Nina is especially wet.

Just a little musing but.. I think the classic PNA position is too far north. Push it south and you have a much higher correlation to East Coast temperatures. The problem is, in the classic PNA patterns, the anomaly often spills over into Alaska, and the temperature correlation over the US becomes neutralized. Here's the cold season H5 correlation to classic PNA Temps Push that N. Pacific pattern south a bit: And this is what you have: It makes sense that a Low/High in the N. Pacific at 50N would be less of a linear effect than 30/40N. For US temps, you have a hybrid between a cold and warm pattern, being called the PNA. That's why Dec 2020 wasn't so cold.

You're doing pretty good. I've done roll forward stuff with various global patterns (Mexican heat wave in May, CONUS record temps over the past 8 months, +EPO since the Winter, +NAO since May), and they are showing continued above average through March 2025.. But sometimes the EPO pattern will flip like you said.. that's how we could get some colder weather in here. Usually it would have to start in Sept-Oct.

It looks like he has a losing record, and ERA 4.0+ in a time when the league batting average is .240. Do they plan on starting him in the playoffs? I don't really see a big difference between winning the division and entering as a wild card team. It looks like they gave up two 2nd round picks from last years draft for him..

Models really overestimated the strength of the EPO and NAO in the medium range. This is a bias I have seen sometimes, they overdo pattern consistency in the MR/LR. It will still be in the 90s, but not record breaking like was looking possible before.

13-14 PDO was because of the pattern, though. It's like pointing out that the ground is cold after 4 months of 20 degree days.

These August maps verifying would make it the warmest Dec - Aug on record for the CONUS by a little bit of a margin.. Just so you know they aren't general global warming maps, look over Alaska.. the CPC is predicting once again a pretty strong +EPO The roll forwards, going back to 1948, are ugly, and has a pretty strong correlation signal for every month but December going into March 2025.. not because warm begets warm, but because historically the dominating patterns have remained consistent.

Those warm pools at 40-45N, off of New Foundland and south of the Aleutian islands really are something.. approaching +10F readings. I think that's the range where it starts having more of an impact on the atmosphere. Or at least it would take a lot of "work" to change.

Yeah, it certainly didn't work in those years.. they were very -PNA Winters It didn't work in 96-97.. we had a Strong Kelvin wave hit in the Winter, that preceded the 1997 Super El Nino.. That was more of a Neutral Winter. But back I think in 2008, I constructed a custom index going back to 1948, using the ftp custom input on CDC maps, and found it did historically test back better than ENSO measurement, like Nino 3.4 SST and OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds.. etc. And since 2008, it has worked at like +200% lol. I can't make custom indexes anymore on the CDC daily and monthly composites, but if I could you would see the overall +correlation.. the PDO beats out Nino 3.4 in correlation composites with the N. Pacific pattern, but the subsurface beats out the PDO..

The SSTs lagged what was happening atmospherically though. After a Strong High pressure set in, in the Gulf of Alaska, Oct-Dec, SSTs eventually matched suit. They did not look like that when the pattern began in 2013: -PDO warm pool was far enough south where it really shouldn't have led that -EPO pattern Like 2002 and many others, the pattern got going real quick in October, but there was a pretty solid -PDO in place before that happened..

Yeah, you got the high precip correlation of +NAO, and severe cold of -EPO. Hasn't happened together like that too many times historically. Dec 1983 is one, although it was a near neutral NAO. Dec 1989 had +NAO, but precip is usually better in Jan and Feb.

Thanks! I especially like these examples for the times the N. Pacific H5 pattern most deviated from the surface ENSO state.. For El Nino, 65-66 and 72-73. For La Nina, 95-96 and 00-01 The maps are self-explanatory. And that's 4/4. The correlation isn't always perfect, but when I previously plotted all subsurface data vs surface, I found a stronger N. Pacific 500mb correlation with the subsurface. Then of course, this year v before a big -PNA set in Feb 15 - March 31 and carried through the Spring Making 23-24 the 3rd most deviated situation between El Nino SSTs and the N. Pacific 500mb pattern.. negative subsurface The subsurface does change a lot, so if there is, say a Moderate Nina in the subsurface now, that doesn't mean it will hold 2-3 months out, or the Winter for that matter.

We did have an "El Nino pattern" that June with a +PNA and warm anomaly over the Arctic Do you have a link to those older subsurface maps?

If Nino 4 maintains its warm anomalies through the Fall and Winter, we could be looking at another Strong El Nino in the next couple of years, or "El Nino state", I think. The SOI becomes more important now, imo.

Interesting. SSTs at this time in 2013 actually didn't look too far from what we have now @40/70 Benchmark Notice the New Foundland warm pool.. and 13-14 was actually a very +NAO Winter, but it correlated with the -EPO.

The seasonal models for August had way above average precip in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.. like 150-200%. Kind of reminds me of last Winter when the seasonal models kept showing cold on the east coast, just because of the El Nino. They might have been taking into account the warm Atlantic SSTs in the Spring and possible La Nina conditions and running that forward.

Yeah, I'm glad you're getting it. +NAO/-EPO is a pretty above average precip pattern for you.. -EPO is -0.1, and +NAO is +0.5. Together, they do have +snowfall correlation in the Northeast. Usually you have to sacrifice cold air for dryness.. -EPO isn't too bad in this regard:

The EPO usually flips, albeit briefly, after a sustained strong phase.. Here's an example: We had a 8-day +EPO period July 10-17 that gave us very warm temperatures in the East Now it flipped for about 6 days. There are all kind of examples of this throughout the history.. The EPO is probably the most "we're due" region of the northern hemisphere Here's the Dec - mid July EPO to date: Could it flip in the Fall-Winter? maybe

One thing that blows me away is the PDO correlation to NW Canada temps in the Fall season: Being a water index, the PDO you would think is heavily influenced in the now-time by conditions over the waters.. but the land area has a higher correlation! meaning.. it has some extra-effect. >0.6 over a 73-year period is nothing to sneeze at.

Since 1998, we have had 14 La Nina events, and 8 El Nino events. This heavy skew with La Nina conditions may even be keeping the global temperature down some over the past 20 years..

Btw, the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming really correlated to -AAO conditions +time: It peaked as 10mb warming July 6-19. I estimated in the N. Hemisphere in early-mid January, it takes +20-25 days for greatest -AO effects. This same time lag in effect seems to have fit perfectly here.

The ENSO state, of La Nina or not, is extra sensitive this year, because the QBO should be strongly positive for the Winter. Moderate+ La Nina's with +QBOS have a strong 10mb correlation, but this is not so heavy when the event is only Weak. My NAO index, based on N. Atlantic SSTs is currently coming in at +0.50 for DJFM, but there has been a strong correlation since 2013, and stronger since 2019, for -NAO to happen with -PNA/+EPO and +NAO to happen with +PNA/-EPO. If we keep this strong +NAO going into Winter (and look how it picked up after those sun spikes in May!), it may favor a weaker La Nina-N. Pacific pattern, which would fit possible ENSO negative subsurface rebounding or shifting east through the Fall.. It could be possible that this was a ultimately a Spring/Summer "Moderate La Nina" (strong H5 correlation), but maybe just Weak in the extended..

From July 2020 to April 2023, we had 37 straight months of +SOI. This was associated with 3 years of La Nina conditions. June 1998 - April 1999 had 11 straight months of >1.0 SOI [CPC], which preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. March 1973 - October 1974 had 20 straight months of +SOI, which also preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. If the SOI doesn't rise in the coming months, Nino 4 SST is not really going to drop that much. This could ultimately form a subsurface warm pool in the western region, which would favor the rebound of the subsurface La Nina conditions in the Fall/Winter, and goes against the continuation of La Nina into next year.