Stormchaserchuck1

Come on, your post about the PDO going positive is one of the most liked in this thread..

Code purple in the Bering Strait, raindancewx saying this is not +WPO. It probably hits +3 on the daily here 594dm ridge also extends from Japan to the Aleutian islands in October! Phoenix broke its all time Sept 25-Oct 1 highest temperature record mark by 7.4F (104f vs 112f)! Some real mid-latitude warming going on now.. with a -NAO..

+8.61.. not really up a lot from Aug. October will probably be >+10, peaking during the Winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

September fit my roll forwards for warm CONUS Dec-July (this year was #1 warmest on record, due to +EPO) pretty well. October is looking like it will also be a match. December is the only month through the following March where there is not an extremely warm signal.

Zay Flowers was wide open for a TD that Lamar missed. This team has so many weapons..

The first offensive play of the game was an 87 yard TD run! The whole game was dominant.. Lamar if he stays healthy might go for a 3rd MVP. Jayden Daniels is up there too.. I have a feeling the Ravens will be able to stop him in 2 weeks.

Ravens super bowl odds went from 1/15 to 1/8 after this week.

DCA: +2.3 NYC: +2.4 BOS: +2.2 ORD: +3.5 ATL: +1.8 IAH: +1.7 DEN: +5.0 PHX: +5.3 SEA: +1.8

It probably has a lot to do with Kirk.. although the projection is 8+ days. It's interesting that it's that strong, being based on '04-23 norms!

It's not a coincidence that now that the ENSO subsurface has neutralized, the -PNA will take a hit for the first time in a while.. no big central-east Pacific ridges for 15 days according to 12z GEFS The N. Pacific pattern has been following central-ENSO subsurface very closely since mid February

It's not a big deal.. I know right off the coast of Japan is the south part of the West-Pacific indexes measurement, and they are going to break their record by a lot so it's kind of exciting to have such a good data point at play. GFS ensembles have negative anomalies over Siberia when this happens, but maybe not later in the month, but the index will be strongly positive for at least a few days. The roll forward matches what other things are showing too, so it all fits together as part of a pattern.

This is what a +WPO looks like in October This is what models are showing

A good amount of GFS ensembles have a Gulf storm making landfall in about a week.

You can see by my post above that the WPO tends to reverse for December, and sometimes January. In all the historical data, this reversal does tend to happen on different time scales. I think that we have seen 5/6 +WPO Winters, with one being neutral means it's somewhat unlikely to happen as a mean again this year. I think you have been intuitively saying this for a while.

The Summer Hurricane season has nothing to do with the Winter, except for larger macro factors that correlate both things. People use it because it's an easy data point, but sometimes you have to think about the physics of meteorology. Storm systems would have circled the globe 3x by the time the Winter is here.

The GFS ensemble mean now has a >594dm ridge over Japan in the medium range! I think this could be record breaking by a little bit. It's part of a strong +WPO pattern, which I said would be more likely to happen this October earlier in this thread (because of the Winter +NAO tendency projection and -PDO). This is how a +WPO October rolls forward to the Winter across the CONUS December January February January has a pretty good +NAO match.. which I have seen with a few different things, like -PNA conditions in September.. this could be the month where -PNA/+EPO conditions ease up.

Warmest the subsurface has been since early February

Nice 594dm ridge off the coast of Japan.. I bet we will be seeing some Twitter posts on this one What's interesting is that these super warm SSTA areas are preceding record 500mb conditions in the same area... We saw this over the Summer when the New Foundland warm pool got ridiculous.. then a week after that occurred, the Atlantic broke it's all time record for >600dm ridge right over that SSTA area. Now we have >10F anomalies off the coast of Japan, and weeks later, a record ridge is occurring right over the same area. Oct NAO is also starting to look negative on LR models, not coincidentally coinciding with +epo/-pna.

This one is already getting an eye

The MEI has been matching the ENSO subsurface until now.. I wonder how big the MEI/PDO correlation is? My guess is, because the N. Pacific pattern and enso variables don't react as strongly when the subsurface is neutral that it will bottom out pretty soon.

Likely below -3 now, and the H5 pattern has been matching the historical data perfectly.

Subsurface is neutralizing.. barely any -2's on todays map. If the SOI keeps going like it has been, the La Nina will run out of fuel.. Last 30 days is a mere +2.3 on the SOI.

It does appear to still be in a strengthening phase. Over the last 30 years, the Oct PDO has done admirably for predicting the following Winter's conditions.. I'm not a believer in SSTs being the main cause, but its correlation scores are really high. A lot of the cold years saw cold in October (highly correlated to +PDO), and a lot of the warm years saw ridging in October.. we are I think #2 lowest PDO right now since 1950. Oct 2013 was nothing like the progression being shown in current LR models, which fits PDO events almost perfectly (2013 was an example of the PDO trending in a direction in the Fall vs already being in that state)- Cold Winter was already showing itself at this time in 2013.

This looks more like a -PDO to me than La Nina https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html In La Nina, you get more interaction with the North Pacific High (+NPH) This is full on -PDO North Pacific High area is further East

The subsurface has been leading the surface +3-4 months for a while now. It started weaking a little over a month ago, and it seems the current trend is for it to moderate. The SOI never broke +4 for the La Nina event until recently. Even now the 30-day is only +3. Gawx has posted about how this factor is correlated to the surface. It also seems to be leading. The Fall is typically when ENSO events deepen, but I think in the Winter it may neutralize pretty quickly. We might not get 5 months of <-0.5 ONI for an official La Nina, but it will be close. Glad to see donsutherland posting more in this thread.