Stormchaserchuck1

La Nina is actually a colder weather pattern. I know a lot of people don't believe me, because it has correlated with the -PDO so strongly lately, but here is what Anti-Strong El Nino's looks like (because no La Nina's have matched that strength) ^There is a slight -NAO signal there, so maybe shift the anomalies west a little bit, but that's what Pure La Nina should do (w/out correlation to PDO) The SST map of anti-Strong El Nino's has a weak PDO. 65-66, 72-73, and 23-24 were all -pdo.

The atmosphere is acting very La Nina-like for the next 2 weeks.

Remember guys, these are the colors associated with the northern lights

I wonder if models missed this MJO wave.. they trended significantly more -PNA in the last few days

Oh, I meant in regard to challenging his thoughts. He wasn't right a lot this year, citing -AMO analogs when the Atlantic was slow (it was the super +NAO causing a cooling of the waters), and +PDO early on in the year, citing a lot of cool month analogs. But we'll have to see how this Winter goes. He was very good good the last 2 years though, so 2/3. The AMO is back to near record warm levels now, only behind last year. It waxes/wanes with different NAO states.

I thought it was pretty fair dialogue. I used to be that way in my early days, you get passionate about something, and feel that it's not being handled correctly. Hopefully he still posts about how the global climate is comparing to his local climate. There aren't really enough long range weather forecasters.. Most people just describe what is happening, but probably 1/20 people roll that forward and try to make a long range guess, win or lose. It did end up being a hyperactive hurricane season, with us being on the 15th name in October. 10 hurricanes. 4 major hurricanes.

@snowman19 predicted this dry October pattern well in advance, and the MJO going through 4-6 if I remember correctly? Were seasonal models showing this?

Latest CPC Winter forecast, which I will verify against.. they went colder. They released this a few days after me, so it's a good comparing point. It seems like they were working on it 1-2 months ago though, as that's the trend I was getting 3+ weeks ago (as posted in the La Nina thread).

I've felt more confident in the last few days after seeing this monster -PNA appear on models for late October, MR/LR modeling wasn't showing that. Then this +EPO and High pressure patterns right now are more of what we have seen in the last few Winters. If I bust, it's because the NAO/PNA-EPO correlation I have stumbled upon will be strong, and Pacific -PNA/+EPO regimes won't get going with a "new +NAO pattern" in place. MJO going through 4-6 strongly right now is another warm sign, and the CPC having 2nd tier cold in the PNW is another reason to think the EC will have very warm periods. I'm pretty confident in this outlook.. I would up the verification % chances based on what I'm seeing recently.. We will probably have quite a few cold shots, but our +NAO warm periods have the potential to get into the 60s and 70s here at times, imo. That's why it's skewed warmer.

We haven't had a +NAO Winter since 19-20. And only 1 time since 15-16. Actually, here is a temperature and precip map of our last 4 +NAO Winter's, as defined by negative anomalies around Greenland, if that holds true.. Since we have already seen 9 +NAO periods this year, something tells me we have exhausted that option.. But Maybe more solar flares will keep the correlation going.

Yeah, really some strong +EPO signals coming forth for the 1st week of November. This is a typical cold season pattern of late, 2018-2024.

Yeah. Possibly well above average, as the normal jet stream is south in the Winter, but a SE ridge would have storms riding up to the Great Lakes. You could be pretty excited by the CPC's Winter forecast, with cold dropping in not too far away, but I'm not really agreeing with them. I think they are really underestimating the potential warmth in the east, only giving 40-50% chance for above normal here. I think this Winter will have a lot of variation/volatility.. I think we may see -WPO/-EPO periods, but they may not last more than 5-8 days. The overall trend will be warm. It's a little bit different when a Winter is wall-to-wall warm, vs very warm periods and below average periods.. You can get snow in Winter's of variance.. I had a 20" storm in 99-00. If we have a +NAO jet stream like I think, the timing with a -EPO period could give you a nice snowstorm(s). It's not all ridgy everywhere like the last few years, so northern areas should do ok I think.

I have some pink in the sky, visible with the eye, where the sun is setting. Photos with my phone are only picking up on the orange of the sunset.

This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25 I do think we will have colder periods, but some of the warm spikes will be extreme +departure days, skewing the overall warmer. So, more variation/volatility vs a constant pattern.

It looks like the CPC thinks the EPO will go negative for the Winter, or the N. Pacific ridge will go polar and extend north. I had this opinion in the Summer, but the last 1-2 months has been more of the same pattern that we have seen for the last 6 Winter's, imo. Will be interesting to see if they verify.. they usually don't go so cold as they are over the PNW and Upper Midwest for a 3-month period. This is especially interesting because the SW, US has been +7F over their all time records for a 3-week period lately. They usually smooth the overall warming signal out for a seasonal forecast, but the forecast is downright cold in the NW 1/3 of the US. If the NW has such a cold Winter, I don't see how we don't go extremely warm in the East, given what has happened over the last few Winters.. we had 3 days of +NAO ridging last January, and DC hit 80*. The same is happening tomorrow.. the NAO is going positive, and there is a 591dm ridge over Toronto, Canada. Little spikes are causing some extreme +departures days.

It's one thing when the PDO is X value. It's another when it's accurately predicting the state of the atmosphere months in advance. In 2013 it was not hitting in the Fall. The one month that the PDO doesn't have a high correlation to is December.. Its highest is Jan-Feb. SE ridge signal of +0.5, or 75%. March is just as weak as December.

Pacific 500mb pattern should finish out October something like 0.90 correlation to the historical -PDO composite.

Now a deep +EPO for early November on the 00z GEFS. Could be way above average if it verifies, +epo's are the warmest pattern.

The last 4 runs of GFS ensembles at 384hr (0.75 pattern correlation) have showed a decent +EPO for the 1st day of November. If we were to see a predominantly -EPO this Winter, this is when history says it would usually start to show itself. But the opposite is occurring, with at least the 1st week of November looking probably warm. Natural Gas has also gone down a lot in the last few days with the NG/CL-Gasoline spread the 2nd lowest on record, behind only last year at this time.

Yeah.. I mean something globally than before. -PNA's (-PDO) have been historically associated with -NAO. I wonder if the start of +NAO's this year.. which we really haven't seen like this in a very long time could be somewhat of a change to more of a +ENSO global state, that takes place next year or something. Despite what the CPC says the NAO is, we haven't seen troughs like this over Greenland for a long time. Here was the 1st one It got up to 80* in DC one of those days It hasn't changed the PNA/PDO yet, but maybe over the next few years it will.. coming up being the 9th time it has happened this year. All I really saw was global High pressure 2020-2023.

2013 started a 2-3 year regime shift in the Fall. I thought it wasn't worth considering unless we saw something similar this Fall, which would have been difficult with a -3 pdo. The +NAO this year, now coming up on its 9th bout in the medium-range could signify the coming of a global phase shift though. We'll have to see how that goes next year.

October NAO actually has a negative correlation to Jan-Feb-March, going back to 1948.

I'm not sure why you're posting September TAO/Triton subsurface.. the subsurface has since neutralized, with no regions greater than +1c. CPC is still showing cold subsurface waters though. I don't know which one is more accurate. I will say that we probably don't see an official La Nina with 5 consecutive months < -0.5. That would give us only our 2nd ENSO Neutral year in that last 11, if I'm right. Of course, other things like the MEI and RONI are showing La Nina, and they have higher pattern correlations. But I wonder how much those things are associated with the PDO? PDO at -3 right now is nothing to overlook, given how strong of an indicator it has been over the last 4-30 years. This October is fitting the -PDO H5 about as closely as you are ever going to see. I would love to separate this and ENSO, to see if my ENSO subsurface theory still holds up.

What I really like about the PDO in October, is how it correlates with an independent pattern. As you can see by January, PDO is associated with PNA conditions. the 500mb pattern probably is associated with similar waters over this time. But in October, an independent correlation appears I think I mentioned this in August, and sure enough with the -PDO record breaking and holding a very strong pattern correlation over the last 4 years, a strong Gulf of Alaska trough has transpired this month.

Everyone was matching up 2013 in the Summer, but here is how it matches up now. What we have is fitting -PDO for October pretty nicely.