Stormchaserchuck1

It's actually looking like Days 14+ a +EPO will build, giving us well above average conditions. November could end up being a top 10 warmest month in a lot of places if models are correct right now about days 14+.

October PDO -3.81, lowest monthly reading going back 170 years.

With a weak ENSO state, my -NAO/-PNA/+EPO correlation is working. Look at this massive ridge extending across the N. Pacific! (it's been trending stronger the last 2 days) The new thing today is this huge +EPO at the end of the model run, which is the warmest pattern, and would result in very above average temperatures across the CONUS for late Nov, if it holds (just started appearing on LR models today). November could end up a top 10 warmest for a lot of places if this verifies.

6z and 12z GFS ensemble mean develop a huge Aleutian Ridge, -PNA, days 13-16, Nov 18-21. It's a pretty impressive signal, >+250dm on the mean. Should hold a ridge on the east coast through the end of November if it verifies.

Using ONI of +2.1, it's perfect, 4/4, 10/10 follow-up La Nina's. 72-73: followed by 3 years of La Nina 82-83: followed by 2 years of La Nina 97-98: followed by 3 years of La Nina 15-16: followed by 2 years of La Nina

Yeah but the rest of the year has had that ENSO-Hadley Cell correlation. Although ENSO's effects are usually strongest in the Wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, I'm making a point that the 25-year pattern is La Nina-like, as it expands to the whole year, and Southern Hemisphere, too. We did seem to "re up" after the 15-16 Strong Nino. And now a nearly -4 PDO 1 year after 23-24 Strong Nino. I wonder why that is, why Strong Nino's are starting longer term La Nina-like phases.

Matches the Hadley Cell expansion North and South of Nino 3.4 that we have generally seen, since the 97-98 Super El Nino:

Yeah, that roll forward has been working out great this year. I don't see why it won't continue through the Winter..

With the way it's been hitting for the last 4 Winter's, this much of a monthly record is something to consider. I had been calling it -3.. but not almost -4. There might be thing driving the global pattern that are driving the PDO too, though.

Warmer Jan-Feb composite in the SE 1/2 of the CONUS What I find interesting is that the month-of composite for PDO is much stronger than lead time, but a good amount, meaning that a lot of times in the past it has fluctuated between the Fall and Winter (although unlikely to happen this year).

Natural Gas December contract dropped 7% today, making its spread with Crude Oil/Gasoline the 2nd lowest on record, behind only last year (big +NAO or +EPO signal).

Previous occurrences: March, Jan, March, April, Jan, Jan, March, Feb, March, Feb, March, Jan, March, Jan, Jan, March, Feb Mostly negative as the extreme reading. October 2024 - Positive Could it have something to do with this? (photo I took) Before the solar flares hit, the AO was not forecasted to go that positive. Just an interesting correlation. I would think if there would be an effect, it would be the Pole (AO).

These seasonal models do pretty good, as bluewave has been pointing out. They aren't perfect, but do generally get near the area right. Last Winter, for example, they had strong H5 warmth over NE Canada and the Davis Strait. It ended up being record warm in eastern Canada. Another example, Sometimes they will show warm over California, then it ends up being Arizona, etc.. The Euro currently is showing well below average snowfall to the Canadian border. For the Mid Atlantic and Southeast to have a below average temperature Winter with above average snowfall, the model would need to be near 180 degrees wrong. Because of just that, I would say it's probably 80% that the Mid Atlantic and Southeast have generally above average temperatures and below average snowfall. Obviously, temps are easier to nail then snowfall because 1 big storm or a few storms could make the difference. It's probably 85% temps, and 70% snowfall.

Got down to 32F here

Yeah, the biggest anomalies are over the Midwest, then it neutralizes further east. Stronger STJ gives true El Nino over La Nina an edge for east coast snow lovers. I personally like weeks in the 20's with 2-6" snow events. That's what you'll get possibly in a La Nina if the NAO cooperates.

A real La Nina is actually cold for the CONUS. Colder than El Nino. A lot of the stuff in the western Pacific has cluttered the raw ENSO effect in recent years. And a lot of people even believe that PNA is the main effect. It's actually the North Pacific High

Yeah, I got down to 38F and it actually feels pretty nice out. It was really chilly before midnight with a brisk feel in the air, now it's pretty nice.

Usually happens during more -AO regimes

October Northern Hemisphere H5 has matched the PDO composite almost perfectly.. negative anomaly over Alaska and all. 2013 is an example of a year where the pattern deviated from the PDO, starting in the Fall, but we are about 180 degrees from what that October looked like at 500mb right now. -PDO years that were good Winters looked Neutral in the Fall, -PDO years that were bad Winters had the Aleutian island ridge and +EPO. Solar flux is a new pattern this year though, so I will be interested to see how it goes through the Winter. I think there is a lag for an active sun to the ground pattern. If it results in +NAO like I think, it will either correlate with -PDO and warm us up into the 60s, or it will fluctuate the Pacific pattern, correlating with more -EPO, and actually give us some rather stormy conditions when it gets cold (-epo/+nao). Unfortunately, for that the be a predominant pattern I don't think we want the PDO at -3, with a major +correlation at H5 in the Fall. The cold shots may be more likely to come in bursts. (Since 2013, +NAO/-EPO/+PNA vs -NAO/+EPO/-PNA has had about a 0.30 correlation, and 0.40 since 2019.)

Yeah, the PDO has a ridiculous correlation of late. More than I would expect it to. It doesn't help that that PDO is near -3 right now, which is only #2 to 1955. This year we started getting Greenland troughs, which is a new pattern. That is cold on the H5 map, which wasn't really there 2020-2023. I was thinking it could spill over to help a -epo/+pna pattern, but I have seen through the Fall the staying power of the N. Pacific warm pool at 500mb. Because of this new +NAO pattern this year, it's not too far out that we could see possibly several 7-10 day favorable Pacific looks, but that is not expected to sustain in any way, because of the historical PDO correlation. I think when we warm up, it could be 60s and 70s at times. But the variance of the pattern will give us warm and cold periods. Hopefully we capitalize on colder patterns, the global precipitable water continues to be very high.

Broke the record for +AO today and yesterday, as Gawx has been pointing out. Broke it by 120% Here is how +AO in October rolls forward to the Winter December January Been getting a lot of stuff for a +AO/+NAO January February Once again we have a major +NAO/AO event happening a short time after a flux in solar activity. This wasn't really modeled to be so strong in the medium-range/long range.

Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32)

Happy November.. 0z GFS has a 593dm ridge over a large part of the Mid Atlantic for Nov 1. Anything close to that in verification should be 80s.. +NAO's are really correlating with some warm temperature spikes in the region so far this year.

This is pretty cool. CME has HDD and CDD averages for big cities months ahead of time as average departures that you can look at, and trade if you feel so compelled.

19-20 was our last +AO/+NAO Winter, based on 500mb over Greenland and Iceland. Every year after that has been neutral or negative.