Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Nino 1+2 was close to 0.0 in 09-10. It was also the #1 most -NAO Winter on record, going back to the mid-1800s. Kind of interesting that we are batting 0-22 on Winter NAO months > +1.11 starting after just 1 year after that. -
Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other.
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Might see a little bit of a spike happening in the next few weeks/months
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March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)
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You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic.
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Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out.
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Jan 2024 had a pretty good -NAO with some cold coming underneath of northern latitude ridging. It was a pattern break from the -NAO bouts always hooking up with SE ridge 2018-2023.
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Even that was a -PNA Winter We haven't had classic Strong Nino since 2016
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March-Apr 2026 had a combined NAO of +4.08
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Yeah, this last March was 2nd most positive NAO in all of records. We know that decadal phase is peaking around now as the last Winter month (DJFM) under -1.11 NAO was Dec 2010. 22 winter months >+1.11 during that time.
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Eastern subsurface is roasting.. these are the highest daily anomalies on TAO/Triton of the event so far.. +6.5c
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23-24 was "la nino" which I'm afraid we are on pace to repeat. Dec-Mar was very wet though, so line up a -NAO and it could be good just like other Strong Nino's. DJF NAO 23-24 was +1.08/month that Winter.. since March is not recently much of a Winter month
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DJFM averaged out positive, +0.05/month. December had -0.97 but +EPO overwhelmed it. the negative H5 in the pacific extended north to +EPO that Winter, which dominated. It had short periods of blocking.
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Yeah, a pure 82-83 or 97-98 type Nino wouldn't be bad if it happened like 6 times out of 10. you might still get above average temps, but line up a -NAO with the STJ... I contend that +NAO isn't a constant with east-based Nino's like history suggests, It's more random than it appears in limited analogs.
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This is the start of a very warm pattern for CONUS, to finish out May. I wonder if we're going to start doing what we were doing a few years ago where when the actual day is mild or ridgy, the long range models adjust for the same pattern in the extended. 80F here at 10am
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Looks like the forecast has increased a few degrees to 95-96 for a high both Tues and Wed
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75 analogs weighted, +2.0 next year El Nino is 2.0x, -0.5 next year ENSO is -0.5x, etc. 01-02 is probably about 2% of the composite. 96-97 is about 3% of the composite
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June is pretty neutral just Nino 3.4 ENSO events that peak more later in the year have more of a pattern -NPH
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The US pattern "pre-El Nino" has hit every single month since November. CPC 3-4 week forecasts are showing that hitting again. It doesn't mean there has been a N. pacific low though, which is usually the main staple mark of el nino.
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CPC going with El Nino almost to a T
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Little bit of temp bust today, it was suppose to be low 70s and at 3pm it's only gotten to 65
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CPC 3-4 Week forecast going with an El Nino precip pattern.. should be interesting to see if it verifies, it's been running dry
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June Nino 3.4
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^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's.
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It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days.
