Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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It's been hovering around 60 here. Was 59 when I shut the door earlier.
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I remember models were showing a lot of moisture, for several weeks. Maybe it didn't pan out. I'm also talking about for the whole US. -
>10 degree temp bust cool for highs today
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I remember we got real wet at the end of Winter 22-23. It was foreshadowing the coming Nino. And 23-24 was wet like a Super Nino DJFM, but was really dry in November.
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In 32 Moderate+ Nino's we've never had a Winter temp pattern with a warm SE and cold NE. 0/32. Credit to gawx for doing the research. The Cansips is not showing something reasonable.
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I'm not too sure we go cold ENSO after this El Nino. We had 5/6 recent Nina years. History says 4/6+ reverses +1-4 years 2:1 (El Nino favored 2x over La Nina) We also had a Strong Nino in 23-24, history says +3-5 years after that, El Nino is also favored 2:1. +ENSO tendency for 27-28 and 28-29 may temper the Nina snap back.
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Global SSTA are about as classic as it gets right now for later in the year Nino 3.4 El Nino ^Even the Atlantic matches lol
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I plotted from Don's warmest DJFM Phoenix years.. it's surprising that the DJFM that occurred a year later is cold in the SW. It has historically snapped back the following year.
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Good stuff Don. +4.2F over DJFM number 2 is amazing stuff.
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88 in DCA just like that. Warmth is the story this March/April 1. When the SW, US is warm first, we usually bust high a few degrees.
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My 7th 80 of the year? something like that? Maybe it's number of 76+. Either way, we had a glacier of snow for a month 6 weeks ago. Nice contrast!
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I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16 2015-16 is also a +QBO match later in the year, and Phoenix which broke it's DJFM Temp record by 4.2 degrees this past Winter, number 2 on record was 2014-15, before the 2015 El Nino. Best analog right now imo
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The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while.
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Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs.
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Last Summer the CANSIP had -5 anomalies around the Great Lakes and Midwest at 0.0 month (the 1st of the month). It verified +2-3 lol
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Hitting 79 an hour earlier than yesterday.
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^CPC was putting out long range Winter outlooks that looked like that: warm in the SE, cooler in the NE. Then last month they updated with a full on El Nino composite for the Winter.
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Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it?
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It's time to grade Winter 2025-26(now that it's actually over)
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's still March. Where you been? -
Death Valley beating it by 5 degrees is more impressive. They are much further south.
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March 31 Nino 4 is >+0.5... +0.525 This is way ahead of other later in the year >+1.2 El Nino's.. only 2015 and 1997 were greater for the month of April. April 1957 -0.06 April 1963 -0.34 April 1965 -0.92 April 1968 -0.46 April 1972 +0.11 April 1982 +0.33 April 1986 -0.34 April 1987 +0.08 April 1991 +0.34 April 1994 +0.11 April 1997 +0.59 April 2002 +0.41 April 2009 -0.26 April 2015 +0.98 April 2023 +0.13
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March monthly SOI came in at +7.59. Since 1950, no >+1.2 later in the year El Nino had a March SOI >5.5 fwiw. Only 1 had SOI >2.1 Doesn't mean it can't happen, 15 total examples (RONI) March 1957 -2.7 March 1963 +5.5 March 1965 +2.1 March 1968 -3.6 March 1972 +1.2 March 1982 +0.7 March 1986 -0.3 March 1987 -16.1 March 1991 -10.1 March 1994 -10 March 1997 -7 March 2002 -5.6 March 2009 -1.3 March 2015 -10.7 March 2023 -1.78
