Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Can't wait for 80/62 tomorrow on the last day of March.
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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That -WPO Fall loading pattern in SSTA really hit, too. -
It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder..
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Well I said if you multiplied anomalies by 1.5x what would it be. That would make Nino 1+2 0.0 to 0.0.
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Agree to disagree I guess. I don't think more of the same changes the positions.
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Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative..
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If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3
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Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right?
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If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, it's just bigger same.
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I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions.
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A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower.
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Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter?
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Right.
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By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3?
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I guess.. Not too far from ideal though. Nino 1+2 is almost cold there v! impressive!
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The way this played out in the PNA region isn't too far from what a Nino 3.4-based El Nino should do See how the N. pacific low is directly north of the El Nino
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Too much warmth in the east.
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Yeah basin wide is warmer than west-based, but I'm pointing out that 91-92 Winter warmth was an anomaly in an event with that orientation.
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NAO part of that composite is "other factors", not completely connected to ENSO imo.
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The only way I can see that making a difference is if it's spilling over into Nino 3 and 1+2. If Nino 1+2 is +2, instead of +0.5.. because of the physics of that situation support a CONUS ridge
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The NAO is weakly correlated to ENSO. There is in statistics a point of "random" where X amount of examples if they show something can be deemed as not significant. Then the logic of weak and strong in the same area is different, and it doesn't make sense. It's a shame we have so few data points, but the physics of meteorology and Hadley Cell/mid latitude Cell meeting points support generally cooler conditions in the Eastern US in Strong (>2.0) west-based El Nino's, as long as the eastern ENSO regions aren't going crazy
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A sample of 50 Strong El Nino's might change your mind?
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El Nino events actually favor 10mb Stratosphere warmings.. which can be -AO
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We are so lucky the indexes were what they were in the middle of Winter. The longer term (last 14 month) index pattern is horrid for cold.
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I see where you are getting stuck, you are taking analogs too literal. There are only really 2. The mechanics of the situation don't change, it only changes the amplitude. If forcing is west-based, that's +PNA and a stronger +PNA if it's >2.0 in the west (RONI). I'll take a really, really strong +PNA. You just don't want it to get too close to the west coast, US, which is more tropically east-based
