Stormchaserchuck1

If you adjust for global warming (to still have an even amount of Nina and Nino events), we still need -0.3c or lower for JFM for it to be La Nina.. If Nino 3.4 is 0.0 on March 1st, that's not looking likely to happen.

Natural Gas up 8% today.. maybe that storm has a chance. It is a southern jet piece running into a trough.

I think so, Weak La Nina. SOI has also been positive now 7 months in a row, although not strong.. again a borderline Weak Nina indicator.

Before significantly lowering snowfall averages, understand its been a 25-year decadal La Nina state. Notice the High pressure north and south of Nino 3.4, the largest global anomaly (when the Poles have 3x more average volatility).

I wish the title wasn't La Nina.. it's going to be a ENSO Neutral year/peak.

Showing this year it's more a product of the pattern than a leader... although I do think it reflects global patterns that are happening.

-QBO about 90% probable for next Winter... That makes a possible El Nino a bigger deal, with El Nino/-QBO, we get more Stratosphere warmings. 23-24 had 4 separate Winter 10mb warmings.

Pretty big SSW. It would be the first of the cold season.

The low is projected to be 978-979mb in Missouri and Illinois.. maybe they think it will overperform north. I think it's a little too cold up this way for severe wx.

Sorry, but with that N. Pacific High pressure, it's going to bleed warmer in trend downstream.

Here was the GFS https://ibb.co/7dtxM0P9

Maybe we'll turn to some -NAO conditions the last week of March, into early April.. At this time of year the -NAO is 3x more correlated to Stratosphere warming at +15 days vs +0-day.

Storms are moving more W->E, vs S->N lately. Part of that is because patterns like -EPO were more present this Winter, but it's partially an anomaly too. We didn't have a big trough off the west coast in the Gulf of Canada like is typical for us to have big snowstorms, especially in the 2nd half of the Winter there was weak ridging there.

Does a March Stratosphere warming precede a later year El Nino? There is actually a cold 10mb March correlation to following the Fall's +ENSO (map default is positive, + and - included).

Really warming up early today. Already past forecasted high.

Does a relative +PNA Winter precede a later year El Nino? We had an anomalous, relatively positive, PNA this Winter with strong -PDO conditions in the Fall and a borderline Weak La Nina. The thought is, does the atmosphere lead ENSO? Based on 75 years of historical data, the answer is no. Here is the +10 month condition ENSO SSTs with earlier in the year PNA (both pos and neg considered, but the map default is positive) ENSO +10 months after a Winter +PNA Slight opposite correlation.

There's a little Greenland ridge trying to pop at Day 7, but the long range is about as +AO as it gets.

Ensembles say 70s are possible.

^I was about to comment on how the Day 14-16 model projections are about as uniform +AO as it gets throughout the N. Hemisphere. Kind of amazing that 10mb is projected to be warm then, but they are not always connected. Actually I did research once that found that +time lag on Stratosphere warmings are 3x more correlated to the -NAO than Day+0. In this case, a mid to late March warming would correlate with -NAO conditions the last week of March and into early April, as the usual time lag at this time of year is +15 days.

The last 2 Winter's before this one were stormy in the SW, US. I think LA had their coldest January on record 2 years ago. The theory is that weather out there leads us by years.

Same place as we were last year at this time. Summer has been ridgy on the Pacific side. SW, US drought correlates with -PDO rolled forward up to years. Not good that they had so much High pressure this Winter imo.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +4.7 +4.5 +4.6 +7.0 +4.5 +3.8 +3.2 +2.4 -2.7

no way. Index patterns are horrible. We did see somewhat of a La Nina STJ this Winter. This March warm up also fits the decadal RNA pattern that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2024.. it's still alive and going.

Some light snow for northern MD on Tuesday on the GFS

6z GFS ensembles really look warm at the end, with +EPO for mid-March.