Stormchaserchuck1

It's not about using climate indices from another climate era. That's a wrong/bad point. They are calculated by specific methods, and that methodology is not different in a cooler or warmer planet. It's actually a very strong correlation, benchmark low pressures and the state of the NAO and PNA. I will argue this one. Here's the PNA: The PNA is very negative in the 2018-2025 example you posted. Such an extreme state really tightens up on these correlation numbers. (The map above is default positive, but includes both states of the index). The NAO is not a Greenland High pressure.. Greenland isn't part of the Atlantic Ocean. It's a calculated sea level pressure between ~The Azores, and ~Iceland. That's a SLP anomaly. One region has positive readings vs the 2nd region negative readings and visa-versa. It's not a function of climate change, because that's 50/50. The lower part (~Azores) is where the mid-latitude and Hadley Cells meet, and more often than not extends west to have similar conditions as the east coast, US. The example I'm posted represent a total of 784 months. So +NAO has benchmark tracks 200/784, and -NAO has benchmark tracks 584/784. Then the PNA is also correlated (not related to the 1st set of numbers). The correlations of these Pacific and Atlantic representative indices are actually really high for something so specific as as coastal pressure systems. It's large scale phenomena that has not been favorable lately. The -NAO was more favorable for benchmark tracks in the early 2000s. -PNA and +NAO together have benchmark tracks something like 35/384. +PNA and -NAO together has benchmark tracks 349/384. There is nothing post-2012 that has happened differently from the 1949-2012 period. It's calculated the same, and is having the same effects. The PNA has been negative, and the NAO has been positive. A small time period (with somewhat +pna conditions your map shows) does not negate the total dataset. Remember too the correlation composites include both sides of the index, so +NAO and -NAO are included in the same correlation map. Over the last 10 Winters or whatever, the +NAO correlation with lack of benchmark low pressure has been really strong. This matches the historical data.

The 90-day SOI is now about as high as it ever got during the La Nina last year 12 Apr 2025 1013.34 1008.55 17.30 10.65 8.13 11 Apr 2025 1013.52 1007.55 25.81 10.49 7.70 It led the lack of strong Nina last year.. while the subsurface and surface were showing signs of a jump negative, the SOI never budged and the event ended up being barely greater than Neutral. Also, since 2020, we've had 82% of the months with +SOI over the 5-year period.. Nina long term state is being somewhat reflected in the SOI It's been positive the last 48/50 days..

Cold water in the subsurface is trying to get squeezed out.. but this negative pool in the central-subsurface should at the very least keep us away from El Nino in the next few months.

We actually have a little bit of an Atlantic tripole right now. I did research on this last year, when the SSTA configuration was close to opposite: Since 1995, Positive analogs: 2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2002, 1998 Since 1995, Negative analogs: 2018, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2009, 1999 Positive analogs: 15.5 NS/yr, 7.7 Hurr/yr, 3.3 MH/yr Negative analogs: 12.3 NS/yr, 6.5 Hurr/yr, 2.5 MH/yr. (12 analogs encompasses 41% of total timeframe (95-23))

Central Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean has decent +SSTA's. There is still some cold water off of Africa

Historic snowfall only happened a short time ago. I remember in the early 2000s, when every low would hug the coast, that it must be a gravity of -NAO. What we are in is definitely a "pattern". SE ridge amplified from +NAO/-PNA. The NAO decadal is about as positive as it will ever be, although we once in a while get Greenland blocks (more -AO). It's the mid-latitudes where the Hadley Cell and Mid Latitude Cell in the Atlantic interact that is our problem.. there is always High pressure there in recent Winters. That area usually extends to the east coast. Combined, -NAO and +PNA have benchmark SLP correlation at -0.85! That is 9/10 vs average. I think we've had that combo 3 Winter months since 2016 (when the normal frequency should be 1/4).

They aren't outdated, the same things are carrying. It's 65 years of data to 2012, but since 2012 we have had +NAO every Winter, and the correlation of benchmark SLP is still +0.6. +0.6=+0.6. The same thing has happened as the historical data. It ends at 2012, then you are saying it's a mystery why there are no benchmark storms post-2018 and I'm pointing out that the NAO has been very positive in that time. 1 or 2 or 3 examples isn't going to change anything. I had my best Winter month in January this year since 2016, but yeah it was a little dry. -NAO has also started going colder the last 2 Winter's. The data's too overwhelming to dismiss it.

Final NAO this Winter was +0.65/month.. 3/4 months positive, and the lowest being January -0.52. @40/70 Benchmark My Atlantic SST method hit within the estimated 0.54 standard deviation this Winter. (+0.52 forecast vs +0.65 final) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

The correlation composite takes into account over 1,000 data points. A 0.6 correlation on SLP on the benchmark means it happens 2/10 times, x100. You can get good snows in +NAO Winter's, especially because -NAO's tend to be dry.. so +nao when phased with a good Pacific can give you more moisture during a colder pattern. But I think if we had -NAO this Winter, there would have been benchmark storms. Something to look for going forward.. it's also an index so can be traced to certain climate phenomena, so not really all that connected to climate change. +PNA also has a huge correlation with benchmark low pressure, and -PNA not.. as you are pointing out. +NAO/-PNA isn't necessarily climate change.

Everyone fits everything that's happening with everything that's happening. I don't see the correlation between CC and +NAO, because the NAO is sea-level pressure difference between two areas. One negative, one positive. 50/50. It's not an index that is always measuring warming vs cooling. The problem is that the south part of the NAO has run warm over the last 14 Winter's. I think it's been split 50% negative and 50% positive events in the Summer during that time.

You aren't going to see benchmark storm tracks with the NAO so positive in the Wintertime.. It's been positive 14 Winter's in a row (and negative in other seasons). It's no mystery. This is actually a really high correlation.

More cool April, per the after effects of March 10 - Apr 10 Stratosphere warming The cold season correlation is about -0.2 in the East +time

You have to understand the long term average is not hyperactive like we have seen for the last few years No La Nina.. check No record warm SSTs.. check. That's why a lot of forecasts are average per the post-1995 averages. I want to see if the NAO blows up positive again this season, because last year it seemed to be connected to the Solar Max.. but since October it hasn't been as extreme +.

Connected to late Stratosphere warming.

Yeah, got down into the 20s here. It was from -NAO, which falls within the range of time after a Stratosphere warming event, so it most likely was connected.

NAO is highly correlated to precipitation too, so if the Pacific can line up right in +NAO, it's a good pattern for snow. -NAO: -0.5 correlation with temperatures (3/4 times below average) -NAO: -0.5 correlation with precipitation (3/4 times below average) -EPO: -0.6 correlation with temperatures (4/5 times below average) -EPO: -0.1 correlation with precipitation (6/11 times below average) So a -EPO/+NAO is actually net -temperatures (-0.1) and +precip (+0.3). That's a cold/snowy pattern! (13-14, 14-15)

We had a strong -NAO that Winter. It was actually our last -NAO Winter.. every Winter 11-12 to 24-25 has been +NAO. Can you believe that? 14 years in a row. Gawx has correlated increase in -NAO activity with Solar Min.. 09-10 and 10-11 were both at a Solar Min, but there were probably other factors impacting to -NAO, too.

2009 actually had a strong -QBO so the -NAO/-AO was helped out by the Stratosphere.

I just don't think we're going to always have -NAO with Modoki El Nino.. I agree that over the dateline, the effect on the Hadley Cell is further west so more +PNA vs North Pacific High.

Yeah but it really puts the conversation on track if you understand "20 pennies" is weak, and "100 pennies" is strong. East vs west are like a foreign currency vs a Dollar. But Weak -ENSO is not going to favor cold weather while Strong -ENSO is not. If there is cold, it is because of other things. Weak does not automatically equate to -NAO, it has just so happened to happen that way over the past 50-70 years.

Yeah, believe it or not Dec 1955 and Jan 1956 were cold in the eastern 2/3 of US.

Yeah, I've just run a lot of correlation researches, and I start seeing that areas far away from X point of origin correlate weakly over enough data. That's all. Yankees have one of the largest cities, so higher potential revenue.. and baseball has no salary cap so it carries.

I think the west coast and east coast are warming faster than the Midwest.. yes. Just try to not imagine what you know to be true about strong La Nina's and El Nino's. We are starting from scratch. Here is what they actually do as the Tropical Cell interacts with the Hadley Cell Downstream from that, when it's High pressure (la nina), you have a trough in the Midwest and sometimes a SE ridge. A low pressure there puts a ridge in the Midwest. If the ENSO events are based further west on the equator, the effected area of the north pacific high shifts west, if the ENSO event is further east, the effected area shifts east. It's pretty real a yes or no equation.. our # of samples so far are statically not high enough yet to give us clear opposite results in the data yet.. so random variance occurs (wrt ENSO impact).

So far... I would love in my lifetime to see a strong East-based La Nina. Not impossible, but you are talking about the coldest SSTs occurring off the coast of Peru, and probably like 24c being hit, so such an event is a pretty extreme occurrence. You would need massive trade winds.

I mean the Earth is warming, but it was -32F in Valentine Nebraska a month ago, and it snowed 10" in Florida this year.. I don't think the "cold air is shrinking" is a valid theory besides general earth warming lol.