Stormchaserchuck1

Use the whole dataset.. + and - events for JFM vs October. Try it out for amplitude >0.50 and >1.00 events in October. On this site below, it does the whole thing as a correlation composite for you. (Before I found out about that, I had calculated it manually in the past, and came up with the same results.) https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/ Dec is 50-51% The highest reverse correlation is March. CPC NAO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table What you will find is that both positive, and negative NAO phases reverse in JFM, and even if you do DJFM for the Winter as a whole

Jan-Feb-March is where the heaviest correlation hits. But this based on the whole dataset, 1948-2023, 75 years, not just 6 years. You can research it for yourself on the CPC NAO data. I think we talked about this last year. I find it interesting, because no other month of the year has a <50% correlation, then all of a sudden October is 45%. When you have 76 years of data, that tells me the signal is at least mathematically neutral, not positive.. of course over like 200 years it may be closer to 50%.

In January-February-March, the October NAO actually has a pretty good opposite correlation with the NAO of those months.. it's about 45%. This is impressive because no other months of the year have a correlation <50%. Default of these maps is positive, so it's showing after a + index state I know this -NAO is falling into the realm of September, but just barely.. because it's the last few days of the month, it probably has a 49% correlation to the Winter NAO (since Oct is 45% and Sept is 51%).

We've never really had good WR's. Lamar has great vision, and I'm surprised that he is such a good QB being a natural athlete. usually someone with his speed (which there aren't that many people) isn't going to be great at throwing, which he is. He ran into my sister at a restaurant once right before a game, then threw his 3rd perfect QB rating against Detroit (ties Kurt Warner for NFL record). I was like.. "wow, he must do this stuff naturally".

For your 666th post in this thread. 33 lol Then there is only this member browsing 3-3-13 lol Don't feel bad, I was doing something money related and e pluribus unum was the only one browsing lol

A long time ago, I found that patterns on the West Coast, and especially the SW, US, lead us farther east by a significant amount of time, and the correlation was fairly high. This worked on both monthly and yearly, and even decadal scales. With the West Coast having an exceptionally warm Summer, and places like Las Vegas and Phoenix breaking their records by as much as +2F, I made a composite of 23 analogs since 1948, and rolled that forward to not this Winter (I found there is a slight +pna correlation this Winter, as the pattern seems to carry and not spread at that shorter amount of time), but the following Winter (25-26). A long time ago all my roll forwards were within +1F, as I didn't know what to really look for, but now these things have pretty strong signals. Here's the +16-20 month period (DJF 25-26): +5F max for 23/75 analogs (>30% of the total dataset) is pretty strong. I think the SW, US is kind of a global warming center, as they generate their own conditions, not so much index driven, especially in the Summer.

12z GEFS.. N. Pacific ridge reloads and reloads, then there is a big Aleutian ridge for early Oct. We are having this year a really high correlation between the ENSO subsurface and N. Pacific ridge.. when the subsurface went negative in mid-February, the ridge started happening and it has held strong now all the way through October.

I think it's because there is a trough over Alaska.. I've noticed over the years that they have weight on Alaska and Gulf of Alaska for PNA measurement

Looking back, when the East coast was super dry May-June, and the cap wasn't breaking for anything, that should have been a good signal that the tropics wouldn't be as wet.

No way should that be a +PNA.. not only that but it's >1, with one of the larger index readings in the last few months. ' Last Winter was also classified +PNA, when there was definitely an Aleutian ridge over their "blue" region. This messes me up, because I use their correlation composites, to run together different patterns +lag/lead times.. if they aren't classifying N. Pacific ridges right, it could give some silly and unwanted results.

+NAO has a slight correlation with higher SLP and cooler SSTs. I guess this is what they are referring to In September, the wavelengths are so short that there is actually a slight lower SLP correlation in the hotter tropical region We should be having a -NAO by late September

There have been plenty of active seasons with +NAO's before. The thing is, Sept 12th is midway through the season and we are on "G", which is the 7th storm. On pace for 13-14. For a very long time, the Atlantic average 9 NS/yr. The better thing to look at is "what wasn't anomalous this season". Assume that the last 30 years have been an anomaly, with the Atlantic having 180% ACE, and the whole globe together having 74% ACE.

The Euro did have 200% moisture in the Caribbean for ASO.. that's not verifying for sure. I have been impressed though at how we very rarely see a total disconnect from these modeled seasonal H5 patterns.

That is disconnecting too.. TAO/Triton is not nearly as impressive.

Pretty good -NAO/-AO on the LR 00z GEFS. This is the only time of year where we don't want it to happen!

I saw this posted too: I think the Euro has a 0.65-0.70 seasonal forecast correlation. Even though it had the ridge too far north last Winter, it did come within hundreds of miles of a record breaking ridge that did take place. It also had a good Summer LR forecast for heat in the NE. The Euro isn't perfect, but it usually does generally come within a general range area.. that below normal extends up to the Canadian border is a little concerning in the Mid Atlantic. Maybe not so much New England.

La Nina (general) is a colder composite for you. Here are anti-Strong El Nino's: The EC is probably a little warmer than that composite, as there is somewhat of a -NAO signal. I think all the 5 Winter's you pointed out were warm on the EC (doesn't mean La Nina is warm, it just means the automatic cold signal in the historical database has some -NAO/-AO influence). I would probably push that cold to the Upper Midwest and NW lately, especially for more west-based events.

I don't think 13-14 is a bad analog, but the probability that it was going extreme did start to come up in the Fall, when the N. Pacific ridge went Polar. We would need to follow that closely imo to see a similar Winter pattern. 5/6 Winter's lately have been +WPO.. chances are it is more neutral this Winter, and the 21-22 Winter where it was neutral is a decent analog, although the timing of things may be more mixed (We had such an extreme "new" Dec -PNA that Winter that it flipped to +PNA for January).

Am I reading that right, -2.88 PDO in August? And the last 4 months have all been below -2.88? Wow! The PDO has a really strong correlation with the N. Hemisphere H5 pattern Oct-Dec. If we see -EPO/-WPO it probably won't be until the Winter imo.

Weak is just a less amplified state of the same thing.. Moderate/Strong ONI's translate to a 100dm Pac ridge in the Winter, while Weak's have translated to a 50dm Pac ridge. Our historical composite is too limited to assume Weak Nina's are automatically cold.. I remember a lot of talk about this in the early 2000s when the historical composite was very cold.. but then yeah, 5/5 of the last Weak Nina's have been warm. "Weak" just means that other factors like the NAO/AO may have larger credence.

I think the cold on the West Coast is partially because we had such a cold trough on the East coast the last few weeks.. We do still need some level of mid latitude cooling in the mix, not just all +pna/-pna. The heat wave in the SW, US with record streaks of 100+ for Phoenix and Las Vegas will still translate to super warm somewhere as the Fall jet stream gets going. History shows that those conditions there in the Summer do lead to some +PNA conditions in the Wintertime, usually in December, but a lot of times raw temperatures in the SW, US do lead the Midwest and East Coast somewhere down the road.. I'd rather them be cold than warm.

Huge Omega block being modeled This fits the pattern that we've seen for the last 5 years

No problem. We've lost arctic ice on the Pacific side and since then they have had Wintertime High pressure in the PNA region, while ice has stayed on the Atlantic side, near Greenland, and we have seen more low pressures in this region in the Wintertime. @bluewave Can probably point you in a good direction with literature on the subject.

January NAO.. Will it be a -PNA October? Pretty good correlation here The rest of the year NAO correlates at 51-54% with the Winter NAO, but October is the only month of the year where the correlation is <50%. This is especially true in JFM, where it holds a 55% opposite correlation

I said the -NAO/-pna/+epo correlation started in 2013, but when I looked back at cold seasons following the super arctic ice melt in 2007-2012, it appears that correlation was true even back that far. More cold did make it to the surface in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS though, as bluewave pointed out. That pattern has moderated a lot lately, although last January we saw a pretty good pattern break, having some -NAO-driven cold.