Stormchaserchuck1

This time it was way ahead of models! 12z and earlier runs today had a solid +PNA pattern in the long range, now there is a drastic shift at 18z to almost -PNA in the medium/long range! https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html This is with a +NAO. If that pattern holds in future runs, with a Gulf of Alaska or Aleutian High and +NAO, it's not going to be that cold in the East after Day 10. Europe also goes warmer with +NAO, which has been a new trend of late.

0z GEFS has a big uptick in precip after Day 10, which is great if the Pacific +PNA/-EPO pattern holds. We've seen so much +epo/-pna lately though, that that H5 pattern holding is the real key.

One thing to note is that the NAO will be going positive in about 7 days. All the cold is Pacific-driven. +NAO's in its pure form have as much of a +300% precip difference than -NAO's.. so models may not dry up getting closer if we keep this -epo/+nao pattern. +PNA's are dry though. -epo/+pna/+nao patterns produce 2-6" events, but Balt/DC only average 2-3" in Dec so keep that in mind.

The long term spread with Crude Oil and Gasoline still has Natural Gas very low (spreading with these Energy's adjusts for inflation, and gives more data, going back before 1998).. It's in the top 10% lowest right now in this spread trade, even with a $3.5 price. For a -NAO Winter, we pretty much want Natural Gas to be at least $5-6. It is volatile, but if it gets stuck here I would still expect a warm Winter. Still, it's cool to see the adjustments with long term modeling. Like I was saying last night, it's kind of surprising that long range models have remained cold, as that has not been the trend of the last 8 years.

0z GFS holds +PNA pattern through Day 16, Dec 10. This is backing away from the transition I thought it would be showing now in the long range a few days ago. Pretty much, for the last 8 years after 15 days of a cold pattern we are about 0/20 in holding that pattern, but for now it looks to be holding.

I'm probably 0.2-0.5 degrees too warm, but some flakes are trying to mix back in here.

The long range is not as cold, with a strong -PNA/+NAO trying to develop by Day 16. The model fluctuates a lot, but what the gfs ens are trying to do at hr384 could be 60s in the East a few days later.

2013 is about the only cold analog we have going lately, so I was just making a reference how the strong -PDO that year got weathered by a transition to -WPO in Sept through December. We had a warm Fall pattern this year and the PDO is still super negative, so that may hold weight going further into the Winter, but I do like this Pacific pattern for the next 15 days.

I really like how the snowstorm threat ~Dec 1 is looking on current modeling.. we actually have a +PDO H5 look in the Pacific. -NAO looks like it could hang around longer, making the first few days of Dec the "coming out of strong -NAO storm/threat".

Lamar plays good in Prime Time games. Plus we seem to always have the Chargers number, for whatever reason these statistic stick.. 23-1 vs NFC, 10-1 vs the Bengals, bad against the Steelers etc. If past play-general is any indication, we should beat the Chargers and Eagles

Nice looking low pressure in NY state here Hopefully it stays cooler longer, there could be some isolated heavy precip with bands. Models have the cold air generally bleeding out by mid-day.

5z Hrr has 2-3" snow depth near the MD/PA border tomorrow.

This is because of the constant -WPO being forecasted, through Day 16. Beware though, 2022 started off like this. 2013 did have the pattern change from -PDO in Sept-Oct as a -WPO pattern. This is the +NAO/-EPO correlation I have been talking so much about, as is a default pattern right now. I was saying in the Summer that I would actually prefer +NAO in the Wintertime because of this correlation.

We may have a snowstorm threat around Thanksgiving. The NAO is going to be coming out of a deeply-negative-state, and the Pacific looks favorable right now. Of course, we've had so much +WPO and +EPO for the last 2 years, I want to see that models don't trend away from what they currently are showing, but it has potential..

Now the 1st week of December looks cold. -WPO develops tonight, and holds through the next 15 days on 18z GFS ensembles.. -WPO patterns don't look that cold in the H5 means, but on the surface they are solidly below average. If we are going to have a decent -WPO, I would actually watch for a snowstorm threat when the -NAO is coming up to near 0. A lot of research has been done correlating the rising-out-of-strong-negative NAO state with East Coast snowstorms, and if the Pacific pattern is favorable, there could really be a snowstorm threat, at least north of DC. Watch for around Thanksgiving, or a few days after.

Actually some pretty nice precip with the cutoff storm system Thurs-Fri for northern MD.. something like 0.25" on the 0z gfs with borderline temps. I doubt it accumulates to much, but not ruling some snow out for me and psuhoffman.

The GEFS has consistently showed a non-Nina like pattern in the long range for the last 2 days. I've said before that ENSO subsurface correlates strongly with the N. Pacific pattern. Since it went Neutral 2 months ago, we haven't seen as much -PNA. It actually shows a healthy -WPO in the medium range and in the long range it's been trending toward a more block pattern, albeit a weak signal right now Not the super warm pattern I expected for early Dec

You're right, Larry. Natural Gas is heavily correlated with long range weather. I find it to be a good median, or average, of what's to come, and to be honest with several years on this board, I've never seen anyone on here beat it straight up. The HDD and CDD stuff you are tracking too is cool. I would trade weather derivatives if the market had more volume. Natural Gas gets a lot of volume, so if you do enough studying over time, and can kind of correlate its swings with long range model changes, maybe you can eventually trade it and make $. There are some methods I think that have an advantage over the market, although they aren't always in signal (like right now ENSO subsurface is neutral).

MJO poses the risk of going through phases 4-5 in early Dec

I'm not going to get all excited about the Winter because of a 10-day period of -NAO in November. 12z GEFS is already going back to a -AAM look by hr384.

It's Nov 11th, and Nino 3.4 is -0.3, the coldest region currently. ENSO events start to wane February at the latest. It's almost impossible that we'll get an official La Nina this year.

Maybe a little early, but we do have data suggesting it could be an El Nino 3-4 Winters from now. Sometimes they happen sooner than the data suggests.

It changes fast though.. all we need is 1 Kelvin Wave in the Winter

Yeah, I tested "lead time PDO" vs "time of PDO", and actually found a near 0 advantage on the lead.. The pattern that is in place impacting the PDO actually tested higher historically.. Of course this Winter you can say it will be a -1 to -2 Winter PDO, and that's not lead, it's time of.

The subsurface is neutral and the SOI is neutral.