Stormchaserchuck1

Ravens fans on here are so negative. How about that Lamar is having another MVP type season. Has thrown 1 INT in 5 games, with a thrower rating of >100. And before this game he was the 9th leading rusher in the NFL. That scramble to Likely for a TD was amazing! Stoney Case, Chris Redman, Tony Banks, Kyle Boller.. remember those days?

I think we are still in a sweet spot if we get a favorable pattern.. maybe not the NAO, but on the Pacific side. Global precipitable water has been way up. There was a spot in Louisiana that broke their record by almost 200% in the Spring. And the rains with Helene were more anomalous than usual too. Last year globally was a good +20% over all satellite data since 1948. I think people are rushing the "post 15-16 Super El Nino" climate change. Maybe what we be typical 40-50 years from now, they are calling the last 9 years. The fact is, we have to figure out why strong El Nino's are reversing so much thereafter. 1:8 is the current ratio after 15-16 (-PNA), and it was always historically ~1:3 (meaning 3 la nina's per 1 strong nino). I want to know why a Strong El Nino could lead to 9 years of strong -PNA. Maybe it's just a coincidence or the strong ENSO event is just a blip in an otherwise strong background state? Once the Pacific becomes more favorable, the higher precip tendency should give us some above average snowfall years, for sure..

Earlier in September we had some pretty good negative subsurface.. most recent shows complete neutral.. largest anomaly deviation is actually positive below Nino 1+2

Coupled with a La Nina, that's a negative 10mb signal for the Winter. With Solar Max occurring, and my N. Atlantic SST index coming in about +0.50 for DJFM, it's looking probably about 75% probable that this will be a +NAO Winter (DJFM).

The problem is that the PDO is around -3 right now. A lot of those colder La Nina's happened with a less negative or positive PDO. For the last 4 years, I have seen how the state of this index has ruled everything when it come to Winter weather. There is still some hope that something like 13-14 can evolve, but usually the cold Winter pattern starts showing itself in October, and the Pacific H5 is warm right now (matching the -PDO perfectly).

lol yeah, the point is though that index driven patterns roll forward. I'm sure global warming begets more warm, but that I have a +4F anomalies in some cases, with over 40% of the dataset being used is a pretty strong index-rolled forward signal. +EPO and +NAO are cold weather anomalies, so there is something of a balancing act to the referenced.

I'll be more sensitive to your plight. I didn't mean to criticize saying that ACE doesn't really matter for the Winter.. just meant to turn it into a logical meteorological discussion. Some things are so simply explained, and we want each other to have better forecasts. You posted that this Aug had the +NAO record and some other things... I wouldn't have known that had you not posted it here. It's mostly good stuff, we're all discussing to make one another better in the realm of science. Whether the WPO is positive or not really means little, I'm actually surprised that it rolls forward to a cooler Dec and Jan in the Midwest and East. You intuitively made that "flip" connection here in the past.. Your intuitions from local observations are mostly good.. I generally agree that it's a global system occurring that can be sensed very individually.

Come on, your post about the PDO going positive is one of the most liked in this thread..

Code purple in the Bering Strait, raindancewx saying this is not +WPO. It probably hits +3 on the daily here 594dm ridge also extends from Japan to the Aleutian islands in October! Phoenix broke its all time Sept 25-Oct 1 highest temperature record mark by 7.4F (104f vs 112f)! Some real mid-latitude warming going on now.. with a -NAO..

+8.61.. not really up a lot from Aug. October will probably be >+10, peaking during the Winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

September fit my roll forwards for warm CONUS Dec-July (this year was #1 warmest on record, due to +EPO) pretty well. October is looking like it will also be a match. December is the only month through the following March where there is not an extremely warm signal.

Zay Flowers was wide open for a TD that Lamar missed. This team has so many weapons..

The first offensive play of the game was an 87 yard TD run! The whole game was dominant.. Lamar if he stays healthy might go for a 3rd MVP. Jayden Daniels is up there too.. I have a feeling the Ravens will be able to stop him in 2 weeks.

Ravens super bowl odds went from 1/15 to 1/8 after this week.

DCA: +2.3 NYC: +2.4 BOS: +2.2 ORD: +3.5 ATL: +1.8 IAH: +1.7 DEN: +5.0 PHX: +5.3 SEA: +1.8

It probably has a lot to do with Kirk.. although the projection is 8+ days. It's interesting that it's that strong, being based on '04-23 norms!

It's not a coincidence that now that the ENSO subsurface has neutralized, the -PNA will take a hit for the first time in a while.. no big central-east Pacific ridges for 15 days according to 12z GEFS The N. Pacific pattern has been following central-ENSO subsurface very closely since mid February

It's not a big deal.. I know right off the coast of Japan is the south part of the West-Pacific indexes measurement, and they are going to break their record by a lot so it's kind of exciting to have such a good data point at play. GFS ensembles have negative anomalies over Siberia when this happens, but maybe not later in the month, but the index will be strongly positive for at least a few days. The roll forward matches what other things are showing too, so it all fits together as part of a pattern.

This is what a +WPO looks like in October This is what models are showing

A good amount of GFS ensembles have a Gulf storm making landfall in about a week.

You can see by my post above that the WPO tends to reverse for December, and sometimes January. In all the historical data, this reversal does tend to happen on different time scales. I think that we have seen 5/6 +WPO Winters, with one being neutral means it's somewhat unlikely to happen as a mean again this year. I think you have been intuitively saying this for a while.

The Summer Hurricane season has nothing to do with the Winter, except for larger macro factors that correlate both things. People use it because it's an easy data point, but sometimes you have to think about the physics of meteorology. Storm systems would have circled the globe 3x by the time the Winter is here.

The GFS ensemble mean now has a >594dm ridge over Japan in the medium range! I think this could be record breaking by a little bit. It's part of a strong +WPO pattern, which I said would be more likely to happen this October earlier in this thread (because of the Winter +NAO tendency projection and -PDO). This is how a +WPO October rolls forward to the Winter across the CONUS December January February January has a pretty good +NAO match.. which I have seen with a few different things, like -PNA conditions in September.. this could be the month where -PNA/+EPO conditions ease up.

Warmest the subsurface has been since early February

Nice 594dm ridge off the coast of Japan.. I bet we will be seeing some Twitter posts on this one What's interesting is that these super warm SSTA areas are preceding record 500mb conditions in the same area... We saw this over the Summer when the New Foundland warm pool got ridiculous.. then a week after that occurred, the Atlantic broke it's all time record for >600dm ridge right over that SSTA area. Now we have >10F anomalies off the coast of Japan, and weeks later, a record ridge is occurring right over the same area. Oct NAO is also starting to look negative on LR models, not coincidentally coinciding with +epo/-pna.