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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, big wet flakes mixing in. It only started when I pulled onto my road about 1 mile from my house.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have snow!
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd rather not have a big +PNA in December. Temps minus precip makes it a negative correlation in the Northeast. We had the same thing last December, then when the temp correlation goes from -0.1 (+10%) in Dec to -0.5 (+50%) in January, on Jan 1st last year, it switched to -PNA lol
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    At 500mb, +AAM favors a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and ridge south of Greenland. Not much of the EPO correlates with AAM, maybe it favors it being slightly positive.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just wouldn't expect a major Stratosphere warming. Also the November 50mb QBO is the highest ever since 1979, at +12.17 (#2 is +10.75).
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    This looks like a Strong El Nino December Very +AAM. It seems that those AAM graphs that people have been positing has some value, as this pattern only showed up in the last day or two.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have flurries with almost no clouds in the sky! How cool!
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's not impossible, but a +QBO/La Nina state does favor a cold 10mb about 75% of the time. Last year for example, we had -QBO/El Nino and there were 4 Stratosphere warmings. 2 years ago it was +QBO/La Nina and 10mb stayed mostly cold/ +QBO is strong right now. Here is what we've seen at 10mb for the start of cold season vs +QBO correlation
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have thundersnow! A bolt just hit and it's snowing moderately. Dusting on the mulch and driveway.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    54-55, 64-65, 83-84, 00-01. They were all below average temps, but I don't know about snow
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    The snow shower earlier today was better. This one mixed with rain
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's actually not true. 95-96 was a Weak Nina. Weak Nina's were actually a cold composite (random coincidence from not enough samples) until the early 2000s. Now I think 5 in a row have been warm.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice looking snow squall line about to pass through. 39F
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I actually had some cotton candy flakes mixing in. The squall line around 4am should be fun, models were showing rain but if this one is snow, it's probably going to be a wet snow.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've got a snow shower!
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see if the +SOI pattern holds into January. Things become more uniform Nina in Jan-Feb vs Dec with indices such as that. I found it interesting that the composite was cold Dec in the East for +SOI, and it's been pretty strongly positive since Nov 10th. It's been a +PNA pattern, but the SOI for that little point in time favored it. If you put it all together, it's going to look at H5 like that Dec map.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI has gone strongly positive for the first time since March 2023. 30-day is approaching +10, after being below +5 all year. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ The medium range pattern actually looks a lot like +SOI Dec in the PNA and NAO regions
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Also, a Natural Gas drop from 3.4 to 3.0 is implying a +NAO for January. I think the Crude Oil/Gasoline-Natural Gas spread is currently #2 lowest, behind only last year.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Matching analogs for a time period, taking them and seeing what they did in the future. We had a really strong +EPO pattern Dec 2023 - July 2024, so I went back to the 1940s and found 30 best matches to that pattern. Then when looking at what they did in the future, there was actually a +4F mean for much of the Midwest and East for the following November-March (2024-2025). A +4F signal for 40% of the dataset (30/75 years) over 5-months is strong.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow! I'm impressed that it even seems to lead model changes/trends. I was noticing movements early in the day, then 18z and 0z would adjust. Now the long range is very warm, with a strong SE ridge for mid and possibly late December.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks! Phoenix had major late Summer/early Fall heat wave, breaking their 3-week record by +7F! When I rolled that forward, I got a +PNA composite for Dec and January, so maybe January has a chance at a cold shot. I was getting a lot of +NAO roll forwards for January though. The CONUS was actually record warmest Dec 2023 to July 2024, and a list of 30 analogs gave a strong signal for the rest of the year - above to very above average through March 2025, with August and December being the only pattern breaks. August did hit, as it was a cooler month, and early December was cold too, but the strong roll forward was pretty warm for Jan-Feb-March, with a SE ridge. I would say below average chances this year, but if the NAO is going to be positive, that has been correlating with -EPO, so watch for some 5-7 day cold periods.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what you call a massive difference from a few days ago. It's no surprise the long range went warmer with the medium range trending like that. A lot of people got excited about the Winter because of this 2-week cold period, but the same thing happened last year when the NAO was super negative in early December and 2022 had a -NAO/-EPO December too. I think we will make it to Christmas without accumulating snow. Maybe hope that precip tomorrow night is snow.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go Larry https://x.com/WestSeaWx/status/1863471992156160321?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1863471992156160321|twgr^007f217bf200f801e3d5d3c535e0dc0db720024d|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheweatherforums.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2FWestSeaWx%2Fstatus%2F1863471992156160321
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Definitely feeling like we are going to start to enter a warm pattern. There was a lot of stuff in the Summer pointing to a +NAO Winter, and that's starting to flash some signs in the long range. If that gets going with -PNA, it could get really warm around Christmas. I would even say there is probably a >50% chance that the Northeast finishes December near average to slightly above in temperatures. I was kind of surprised that the CPC went cold for December yesterday, because this 2 week below average stretch is the only time we have seen such a thing in the continental US in over a year!
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