Stormchaserchuck1

13F

0z GFS is losing the pattern a little inside 300hrs. GEM still has it.

If they win the division, they won't play the Chiefs until the AFC championship. I'm not impressed by the Chiefs this year, they are probably the most lucky 14-1 team in NFL history. Net points has them something like 10th in the NFL.

Ravens are a good team. With the clock running when people run out of bounds, etc., it's easy to lose a few games. I think they are the best in the AFC.

I continue to love the -EPO look from Jan 1st onward.. temp correlation precip correlation Net temp+precip gives this our best index state for snowfall by >30% Right now models showing close to a 2 standard deviation -EPO. Long range models are very flexible to current conditions, so I would like to see this pattern hold on modeling past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO period coming up in a few days.

+PNA and -NAO are dry, but -EPO has a neutral precip correlation plus the most extreme negative temps.. so you could say that the current model look is actually a little better than that time in 95-96, although randomness does spike some storms in the H5 drier patterns.

95-96 was a +PDO, but SSTs are more a reflection of atmospheric conditions, so changing times aren't gauged well by the PDO. This could be one of those anomalous years. I'm actually surprised that the CPC is so cold in their 3-4 week forecast. They have the cold centered in the Tenn valley, which your composite for most snowy Winters showed.

Great pattern continuing on 384hr GFS ensemble Medium and long range models move a lot as per as what is happening currently, so I want see us make it past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO pattern for the validity.

We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time. I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year models missed a few times at that range..

Yeah, I haven't seen a 3-4 week look like that in over a year.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

GFS and GFS ensembles got better on 1st week of January pattern today, increasing the -EPO signal This is LR GFS, but it's what models are showing right now, with big ridges pinching north. I would definitely take my chances with this in early Jan. Let's see if it stays consistent or changes in the next few days.

Still snowing pretty good here 6th time it's snowed this year already

EPO is raging positive.. it usually busts warm.

Very cool from a meteorological standpoint! We get to witness a 1/170 year event, this -PDO. Being aware of it as it happens gives us a good read on what the index is, and what it produces. Like I said, it's been hitting its matching pattern the last 4 Winter's. I don't really think this +pna can sustain, although some analog sets like warm Phoenix in the Summer/Fall did show that through January. February seems like an easier call on -pna..

Cold ENSO subsurface is making a comeback in the last few days! If it sustains, I've found that it correlates with a -PNA January. This I would say is like a "Weak Nina".

Latest Hrr was actually pretty aggressive there RAP is rain for the area lol. It will probably snow a little bit. It's cold.

Maybe the models are weighing too heavily the MJO? Should be interesting to see if it holds this look the next few days.. I also think at that time we are hitting Day 40 on the +PNA phase, which is usually a complete cycle.

This doesn't look so bad on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean The thing is, I'm suspicious of the big +EPO ridge turning into a -NAO in the medium range (usually they don't run into each other like that). And for the last few days, the long range GEFS has tried to build a -EPO at the 384hr range, to lose it lately. That Pacific pattern has been stuck there for the last 3 days. Let's see what happens when we get closer. Verbatim, it's a good look, but I don't really like the evolution to getting there. It might end up verifying as a slight -pna or something warmer. That particular panel, the way that it is, looks good though. Let's see if the MJO remains strong going into the later phases.. Usually after such a strong +EPO, at H5 the pattern has to reload though. The ridging usually doesn't just go poleward all around and give us snow.

Good work. This is what the Dec +PNA rolls forward to -30dm Gulf of Alaska Low. Long range models are already picking up on this pattern, where the cold anomaly goes into Alaska, for the end of December. I have often seen when there is a signal ++time, it usually happens before that. Your examples look like 4/5 they hold, but I would be surprised given the state of other things. I did roll forward record-breaking heat in Phoenix during the Summer, and it gave me a +PNA signal for the following Dec-Jan.

They have a +NAO tendency, and yeah keep that ridge out west. I would be surprised if the Winter is that big of a bust in the NW though, as CPC had 2nd tier below average, and a lot of the seasonal models were cold there too. It kind of reminds me of the hurricane season when the NHC went with 18-25 storms, and that was looking like a huge bust until it caught up at the end and hit at 18. It's an individual roll forward, as it doesn't really consider ENSO subsurface, PDO, and really the decadal trend of -PNA right now. I think the big takeaway is that there is average to slightly above average temps in the Midwest and East, when a +PNA straight up in January is a very cold pattern in the East (-0.5 correlation, or 75%). So if we hold +PNA through January, it's cold, but December by itself doesn't necessarily show that.

January correlation following +PNA December's

I was impressed by how strong of a signal it was giving, as 40% of the dataset was being used (30/75 years) and it was giving +4-5 mean anomalies for a 5-month period. In Jan-Feb, the max went up to +6F. Something like 85% of the years followed the above average pattern for Jan-Feb. It has hit every month so far, I'd guess it favors a +NAO or +EPO/-PNA for Jan-Feb.

It's mixing with rain. I'm probably right on the very edge, there were some good size flakes when I was driving on my road though! Car temp said 40F, and nothing is coming close to landing.

I'm actually about 1 mile north of Fallston. It's up a hill that goes about 30', so yeah probably 500'.