Stormchaserchuck1

I definitely expect the PDO to start changing, maybe because of this more active solar period. One "bone" with this is, +3-6 years after a Strong Nino and +2-5 years after 4/5 La Nina's, we see El Nino's happen over La Nina's about 2:1.. I think we have a higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28.. that may help to change the PDO, ideally. I do think this La Nina cycle that we have been in since 98-99 won't last much longer. We had near record winds in the Northern Hemisphere this Spring.. that is +pdo How impressive is the global temperature though with 14 La Nina's and 8 El Nino's in the last 27 years.. if ENSO was more even, it would probably be an even higher global temperature over that time (and it's already kind of gone exponential).

Yeah, I'm just saying the cycle is long so it could take decades to fully change.. Since Winter 11-12, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO [CPC]... Given that we are still near the peak and active Solar Max, I would say the odds right now are 70-75% that next Winter is +NAO (DJFM). I agree that it should start coming down after that, but it may take up to 20 years to leave the decadal +NAO state. The 1920s were very positive, and although the 1930s did see a substantial drop, the 1940s and early 1950s went back to positive.. if you smooth that all out, it's about 20 years after a peak phase for it to come down to neutral. I would say the Solar Min in the late 2030s is the big one. Also just being outside in the Winter.. I can feel the Atlantic subtropical jet, see it in the cloud cover and stuff. That's why I've kind of intuitively known that snowfall isn't big for the last 10 or so years. And I still feel that as strong, being near a peak, no change anytime soon.

Here's what I'm looking at Ray

The decadal NAO may be more realistically 20 years from changing its state. Early 1900s - positive, 60s and 70s - negative, peak positive lately?

The Aleutian ridge due to CC is a weird one for me. There has been a lot of research done linking El Nino's with global warming, because there is a SD difference in strong El Nino events and the global temperature, up to a year later. That's more +PDO/+PNA, but everything skews warm so maybe not so much of an anomaly.. but I think it's a decadal pattern we are in, possibly due to the low sunspots in the 2000s/2010s.

-NAO block >5760dm subtropical ridge completely covering Iceland hrs 60-120. It retrogrades after to become a solid -PNA in the North Pacific, continuing the -NAO/-PNA correlation that has been so present since 2013.

Especially in February and March. Lack of a 50/50 low was also a problem for that storm, and there was a ridge off the west coast, not a trough, keeping the flow more zonal. We usually see a big +PNA Gulf of Alaska low and 50/50 low for big snowstorms... those two negative anomalies are even higher in the mean than arctic and NAO blocking, at least in the Mid Atlantic.

There was a -300dm 500mb low at 45-50 N in the North Atlantic. The AO was all the way over the North Pole. The closer anomaly usually wins.. in this case a strong low pressure at 45-50N correlates with slightly above average temps across the Northeast coast. I was on this board 7+ days out saying the snowstorm wouldn't happen because of a "south-based +NAO".

Well the La Nina is officially over now.. this latest Kelvin wave neutralizing the subsurface is what did it. It's interesting that when this happens, and the SOI spikes negative is when we will finally see a strong -PNA in the N. Pacific (5-21 to 5-25)

April and May have been above average.

I think it was a flip to more of a La Nina decadal state, because the PDO is water circulation in the North Pacific Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere doesn't have the same water circulation... but there were High pressures on both sides of the ENSO Hadley Cell in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere's

Check out this 27 year -PNA pattern we are in, in the North Pacific Ocean. This covers 324-consecutive-months to the present. A big reason is the frequency of La Nina during that time.

Nice progression of the warm pool on the CPC's subsurface

What's interesting about global temperatures for the last 27 years, is that we've had mostly La Nina's. 14 La Nina's 8 El Nino's If ENSO was closer to even in that time, it might have been an even warmer global temperature

I'm not saying that it has a lot of value.. the DJF composite probably maxes out at +0.1, which is a 55% chance of something happening. I do think that a "rogue PNA", one that is not accompanied by ENSO or ENSO changes does have a higher likelihood to even out.. But we are not seeing the same consistent Aleutian High pattern so far as 2020-2024, so we'll see..

Good post bluewave. Europe has had a really linear Winter warming trend that has spanned the last few decades. I remember seeing a graph of Germany's snowfall and it was a consistent 25 degree angle down since the 1960s/70s. Last Winter Europe was really warm, so the trend continues there. It seems to be at least somewhat correlated to the NAO index, like you say.

Very interesting. I think we need to separate the top half and bottom half for "max" and "min". Within that, we assign a +0-9 year lead for best predicted NAO state. For example: If year 2000-2009 is Solar Min with 2004 Solar Min peak (not really data, I am just making an example), we are saying +0-9 years makes 2004-2013 the highest probability for -NAO. I think 2024 was the peak for this Solar Max (correct me if I'm wrong), so we're saying the tendency is for 2024-2033 to be highest likelihood for +NAO, since the next 4-5 years will be declining, but still in the top half, most likely. It is only 1 year before the next Solar Cycle peaks (so coming Solar Min peak) before the NAO tendency actually changes from previous Solar Max peak! Edit: I see 11 years is for the whole cycle to circulate, not to go from one to the other.. so it's just a +NAO tendency until 1 year before coming Solar Min peak, which your research is saying 6-7 years after Solar Max peak, so 2030-2031.. +NAO tendency until ~2029-2030

You can do "lags" and "leads" A lead is the index comes first.. +1-24 months A lag is the 500mb composite comes before the index.. -1-24 months So -24 months is 2 years before a Solar Max There is actually a -NAO signal at -24 months -12 months before.. transitioning to Neutral So since Solar cycles are almost perfectly cyclical, there is actually a +correlation all the way until 1 year before the next Solar peak (Min or Max)! So if the average cycle is 11 years, that's a 0 to +9 year NAO correlation composite

I think you get it. If Min = -NAO = +2. If Max = +NAO = +2. If Min = +NAO = -2, If Max =+NAO = +2, so the 2nd set would be "0", and the first set "+4". It's too bad it doesn't go out further. I've tried several times, hoping they would update. It's a 73-year base period, so there is not that much data cut off going out +3-4 years. To do the full 11 years, it would have to be manual, but you can see what NAO state is favored 1-2 years before a Solar Max/Min event at least (weaker overall correlation)

To bluewave's point, here is the following Winter +1 year after a +PNA December December +12 months January +13 months February +14 months Somewhat of a signal there for warmer than average temps in the eastern 1/2. I didn't sort it out by negative ENSO, but the general gives you a lot more data points. It's on ok signal (ENSO usually changes state the year after a relative PNA Winter, which I will say again is interesting. It's counter-intuitive)

Solar Min is included in the maps. It's Max minus Min If the Solar is 500 (Min) and Max is 1500 (Max) and the average is 1000, Min is [-500] and Max is [+500] The map is default positive phase, with both included, so for the Min, just flip the correlation coefficient around (+0.3 over Greenland vs -0.3). But it's also part of the same map.

It only goes out to +24 months. It would have to be manual to do +3 to +4 years. What I like about the correlation composites, is it takes both sides of the variable into account.. so those images are Solar Max minus Solar Min. Lots of data.

Good post.. lots of data shows +years after a solar peak has the highest cold season NAO correlation Solar Max +0 years Solar Max +1 year Solar Max +2 years As you can see, the south part of the NAO measurement (central North Atlantic High pressure) increases pretty substantially +2 years time from Solar peak. The final image looks more uniform +NAO, vs just a northern latitude feature in the first image.

We've only had 1 strong Aleutian High pressure pattern since November.. Jan 15 - Feb 10. LR models are showing the PNA dipping below -1 at Day 10+.. but yeah, it's been a little different for the last 6 months. The long range could favor a strong ridge in the Midwest and Southeast (correlation this map is opposite for negative phase) if the -PNA pans out

I'm down to 48F already.. during strong +AO. This shows how shortened wavelengths in May make different things possible.. if it were January, I might still be 48F