Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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MEI vs Nino 3.4 -
Temperature thing on my computer says it's 82 here!
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Thunderstorm season has been shifting to late June/July vs the Spring over the last several years
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Not a bad way to spend a Tuesday morning!
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2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
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And since November every composite for "before an El Nino the next year" has worked out perfectly - probably the best 6 month running composite match on record. It may take a +4.0c ONI El Nino to dominate a N. Pacific low like 82-83 or 97-98 though
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But the big constant-persistent N. Pacific low has gone extinct as we've gone through time. Whether that is global change or a product of the -PDO/-ENSO background state, the fact that the MEI is still negative for April tells me that the major strong Nino N. Pacific pattern may not be there that strong this year.
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My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong.
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Daily ONI is already passing +1.0c in Nino 3.4 and subsurface is warmest ever only below 1997, normal 65F areas on the thermocline are 80F right now. It's going to at least go Strong. SOI is the biggest counter-indicator.. it hasn't had more than a few very negative days.
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Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020. 77% +SOI during that time Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo
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Yeah let's see if the STJ juices up this year with cold ENSO background state probably still in effect. 23-24 Winter was very wet but Nov 2023 was extremely dry
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Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US. Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite.
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I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern
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Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?
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Donsutherland taking us to town
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It's the whole NAO dataset. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table March 2020 being +1.01 = x+1.01 weight March 2023 being -1.11 = x-1.11 weight March 2025 being +0.20 = x0.20 weight It's like that for the whole thing 1948-2020. That's why I like the tool.
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Again, since the extreme March 2026 +NAO is leading the May pattern very well, here it is rolled forward to the following Winter: 1B — Postimages
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That's a little more of a -EPO than WPO. Same with CANSIPS
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Pretty good lagged time correlation between a Solar Max and ENSO cycle (El Nino after Solar max, La Nina after Solar min) 0-time is very slight correlation +1year is stronger +2years is stronger! ^Not a bad correlating map between ENSO and the Solar Cycle there, 73 years of data
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It looks like NOAA adjusted October 2024 and July 2025's PDO numbers down slightly. I believe Oct 24 was -3.85, now it's -3.24, and I think July 2025 was <-4, now it's -3.83 March 2026 has been adjusted from -1.44 to -1.2
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CPC is disregarding it completely, but their seasonals have not been better than C+/B- grade as you and I have assessed, over the last 15 years.
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My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm.
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Thanks for the reminder! May DCA: -0.7 NYC: -0.6 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -1.8 ATL: -0.1 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +3.1 PHX: +2.4 SEA: +3.6
