Stormchaserchuck1

It's looking more and more likely that June will be the 9th straight +SOI month.. impressive for Neutral per ONI 24 Jun 2025 1017.08 1013.00 19.61 3.83 3.14 23 Jun 2025 1017.04 1013.25 17.57 3.71 3.03 22 Jun 2025 1016.71 1013.45 13.85 3.91 2.95

Since 1995, Atlantic tropics have very often produced a storm before July 1: 24/30 years (80%) had a Tropical Storm before July 1 27/30 years (90%) had a Tropical Depression before July 1

PDO will probably approach -3 monthly again

The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO

Good stuff. If that's the Indian Ocean anomalies during the Fall we can expect higher probability for a +WPO Winter

Look at this -PDO taking shape

The correlation is surprisingly weak, given that it's a 4-5 month consecutive period. I always though there was more correlation with earlier in the year indexes begetting later patterns. Here's the correlation for the following Winter: +NAO (positive correlation) +AO (positive correlation) -PNA (negative correlation) Combined they look like this for following Winter US Temps.. colored is like 53-55% probability

This was a bust.. Heating Oil went from $2.48 to $2.26 in the 5-day projection period.. 9% drop. I was expecting something in the other direction.

Powerful heatwave headed for Europe too, as the strong +NAO spins out over the next few days.. 5940dm tropical jet makes it to Paris, France.

The wet pattern just continues and continues Since 2002, every "developing drought" has been followed by well above average rainfall in the eastern 1/2 of the US.

June will be the 5th month in a row with +NAO 4th straight month of +AO 4th straight month of -PNA Quite a streak for bad indexes if it were Winter lol

La Nina is also somewhat of a -WPO indicator.. Indian Ocean didn't look like it had strong SSTA's that year. I would look at the map and say slightly negative projection.

Dec 2021 actually had an all time record breaking Aleutian ridge.. it reached +600 for a couple of days at its max! I know 21-22 is the only -WPO Winter since 16-17, but the -PNA was more powerful that Winter. The Aleutian ridge just went poleward.

Correlation actually hits a little different at different times of the year.. there is a Spring/early Summer correlation and a Fall correlation. Counter-intuitively, there is a +PDO correlation in the Apr-Jul composite before a +WPO Winter. I know the last 8 years have had mostly -PDO with +WPO, but if you go over a longer dataset (to 1948, 73 years), there is actually a +PDO signal in the Spring ^The global pattern as you can see early in the year is still south. That pattern really lifts north by the Fall, and gives us these high correlations over the Indian Ocean and ENSO the Fall before. That +0.6 correlation max SE of India is ridiculous for a 73 year dataset (very high).

Yeah.. the issue is that the long term WPO since the 1940s has gone linearly from negative to positive, coinciding with global warming. It might be an issue of not enough data.. Will be interesting to see if we can get a longer term -WPO time in this warmer climate phase. I really like the high correlation SSTAs from the Indian Ocean to Western Pacific summer-fall before a WPO event.. it appears to be somewhat predictable. The SSTs currently favor more of a +WPO Winter, I agree, but I think post-2023/4 something shifted and we don't have as much of a pattern as 2018-2023.

Yeah, I think a hotter than average July appears likely, even vs the last 10-20 years.

Strong +NAO this June.. will probably be +1.0-1.5 for the month. All but a few days in the beginning of the month have been positive. Here's how that rolls forward into July.. 2012's arctic ice melt record might be safe for another year

For fun.. I'm going to keep running forward with my Energy play re: a hotter than previously expected Summer taking hold in the eastern US and Europe (I think somewhat related to the Solar flares and +NAO). I've created a complex mathematical algorithm to predict Futures market moves for the next-day based on historical data.. and all the Energies continue to run an Up future projection as per this method (HO, RB, CL). This was as of Friday close (5pm, but I didn't run the numbers until now). It's for Monday and Tuesday, % shown is the average expected move (actually x2 since it's 2 days). Just for fun.. since not much is going on. I've hit on Heating Oil 2/3 days so far with a combined total of +0.8%. The signal carries into next week. It will be my 4th and 5th day with a "play", and watch long range models possibly trend toward a hotter pattern for July.

Flipping the WPO could be more difficult though.. this is a very high correlation and a uniform map.. notice how basically the whole N. Hemisphere is above average SSTA's before a +WPO Winter Indian Ocean signal is what I like because it's a West-Pacific index, so that makes sense, as the pattern goes from west to east. It is theorized that Indian Ocean SSTs are decadal also, but they do seem to be running a pretty linear trend up since the early 1900s, we are also now in a positive phase. Summer/Fall monsoon there is usually pretty telling about the following Winter WPO. Believe it or not, NE Russia has had negative Winter temp anomalies since 2018 (+WPO)

I agree, I also think there is an above average tendency for -EPO periods to happen with +NAO.. that is an above average precip pattern in the eastern 1/2. Clippers have become less common though, so the low pressure will likely need to tap into the Gulf. I'm getting a few warm things for Dec, although I know the small sample of -Neutral ENSO and -QBO favors a cold December.

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun.

The odds of having no hits through 8 innings is probably 1/450 by itself. Those other variables included, it's probably a 1/2000 type occurrence or something.

Seems to have a slight correlation with warming of Atlantic SSTs for peak season Pretty good Indian Ocean warming signal, too. Actually a very uniform map

Subsurface warmth from the Apr-May Kelvin wave seems to be making it to the surface. This is why I don't really trust subsurface data from the 1950s. Since 2000, it has been a solid predictor of surface SSTs +months time. It apparently didn't do that in the 40s-50s.

More widespread +AO on 384hr ensembles.. 2nd year in a row we get this strong pattern after a very active Sun