Stormchaserchuck1

October Northern Hemisphere H5 has matched the PDO composite almost perfectly.. negative anomaly over Alaska and all. 2013 is an example of a year where the pattern deviated from the PDO, starting in the Fall, but we are about 180 degrees from what that October looked like at 500mb right now. -PDO years that were good Winters looked Neutral in the Fall, -PDO years that were bad Winters had the Aleutian island ridge and +EPO. Solar flux is a new pattern this year though, so I will be interested to see how it goes through the Winter. I think there is a lag for an active sun to the ground pattern. If it results in +NAO like I think, it will either correlate with -PDO and warm us up into the 60s, or it will fluctuate the Pacific pattern, correlating with more -EPO, and actually give us some rather stormy conditions when it gets cold (-epo/+nao). Unfortunately, for that the be a predominant pattern I don't think we want the PDO at -3, with a major +correlation at H5 in the Fall. The cold shots may be more likely to come in bursts. (Since 2013, +NAO/-EPO/+PNA vs -NAO/+EPO/-PNA has had about a 0.30 correlation, and 0.40 since 2019.)

Yeah, the PDO has a ridiculous correlation of late. More than I would expect it to. It doesn't help that that PDO is near -3 right now, which is only #2 to 1955. This year we started getting Greenland troughs, which is a new pattern. That is cold on the H5 map, which wasn't really there 2020-2023. I was thinking it could spill over to help a -epo/+pna pattern, but I have seen through the Fall the staying power of the N. Pacific warm pool at 500mb. Because of this new +NAO pattern this year, it's not too far out that we could see possibly several 7-10 day favorable Pacific looks, but that is not expected to sustain in any way, because of the historical PDO correlation. I think when we warm up, it could be 60s and 70s at times. But the variance of the pattern will give us warm and cold periods. Hopefully we capitalize on colder patterns, the global precipitable water continues to be very high.

Broke the record for +AO today and yesterday, as Gawx has been pointing out. Broke it by 120% Here is how +AO in October rolls forward to the Winter December January Been getting a lot of stuff for a +AO/+NAO January February Once again we have a major +NAO/AO event happening a short time after a flux in solar activity. This wasn't really modeled to be so strong in the medium-range/long range.

Since 1993, strong H5 around the Mid Atlantic Oct 31-Nov 1, rolled forward to the following Winter (Nov-Feb) (11 analogs/32)

Happy November.. 0z GFS has a 593dm ridge over a large part of the Mid Atlantic for Nov 1. Anything close to that in verification should be 80s.. +NAO's are really correlating with some warm temperature spikes in the region so far this year.

This is pretty cool. CME has HDD and CDD averages for big cities months ahead of time as average departures that you can look at, and trade if you feel so compelled.

19-20 was our last +AO/+NAO Winter, based on 500mb over Greenland and Iceland. Every year after that has been neutral or negative.

La Nina is actually a colder weather pattern. I know a lot of people don't believe me, because it has correlated with the -PDO so strongly lately, but here is what Anti-Strong El Nino's looks like (because no La Nina's have matched that strength) ^There is a slight -NAO signal there, so maybe shift the anomalies west a little bit, but that's what Pure La Nina should do (w/out correlation to PDO) The SST map of anti-Strong El Nino's has a weak PDO. 65-66, 72-73, and 23-24 were all -pdo.

The atmosphere is acting very La Nina-like for the next 2 weeks.

Remember guys, these are the colors associated with the northern lights

I wonder if models missed this MJO wave.. they trended significantly more -PNA in the last few days

Oh, I meant in regard to challenging his thoughts. He wasn't right a lot this year, citing -AMO analogs when the Atlantic was slow (it was the super +NAO causing a cooling of the waters), and +PDO early on in the year, citing a lot of cool month analogs. But we'll have to see how this Winter goes. He was very good good the last 2 years though, so 2/3. The AMO is back to near record warm levels now, only behind last year. It waxes/wanes with different NAO states.

I thought it was pretty fair dialogue. I used to be that way in my early days, you get passionate about something, and feel that it's not being handled correctly. Hopefully he still posts about how the global climate is comparing to his local climate. There aren't really enough long range weather forecasters.. Most people just describe what is happening, but probably 1/20 people roll that forward and try to make a long range guess, win or lose. It did end up being a hyperactive hurricane season, with us being on the 15th name in October. 10 hurricanes. 4 major hurricanes.

@snowman19 predicted this dry October pattern well in advance, and the MJO going through 4-6 if I remember correctly? Were seasonal models showing this?

Latest CPC Winter forecast, which I will verify against.. they went colder. They released this a few days after me, so it's a good comparing point. It seems like they were working on it 1-2 months ago though, as that's the trend I was getting 3+ weeks ago (as posted in the La Nina thread).

I've felt more confident in the last few days after seeing this monster -PNA appear on models for late October, MR/LR modeling wasn't showing that. Then this +EPO and High pressure patterns right now are more of what we have seen in the last few Winters. If I bust, it's because the NAO/PNA-EPO correlation I have stumbled upon will be strong, and Pacific -PNA/+EPO regimes won't get going with a "new +NAO pattern" in place. MJO going through 4-6 strongly right now is another warm sign, and the CPC having 2nd tier cold in the PNW is another reason to think the EC will have very warm periods. I'm pretty confident in this outlook.. I would up the verification % chances based on what I'm seeing recently.. We will probably have quite a few cold shots, but our +NAO warm periods have the potential to get into the 60s and 70s here at times, imo. That's why it's skewed warmer.

We haven't had a +NAO Winter since 19-20. And only 1 time since 15-16. Actually, here is a temperature and precip map of our last 4 +NAO Winter's, as defined by negative anomalies around Greenland, if that holds true.. Since we have already seen 9 +NAO periods this year, something tells me we have exhausted that option.. But Maybe more solar flares will keep the correlation going.

Yeah, really some strong +EPO signals coming forth for the 1st week of November. This is a typical cold season pattern of late, 2018-2024.

Yeah. Possibly well above average, as the normal jet stream is south in the Winter, but a SE ridge would have storms riding up to the Great Lakes. You could be pretty excited by the CPC's Winter forecast, with cold dropping in not too far away, but I'm not really agreeing with them. I think they are really underestimating the potential warmth in the east, only giving 40-50% chance for above normal here. I think this Winter will have a lot of variation/volatility.. I think we may see -WPO/-EPO periods, but they may not last more than 5-8 days. The overall trend will be warm. It's a little bit different when a Winter is wall-to-wall warm, vs very warm periods and below average periods.. You can get snow in Winter's of variance.. I had a 20" storm in 99-00. If we have a +NAO jet stream like I think, the timing with a -EPO period could give you a nice snowstorm(s). It's not all ridgy everywhere like the last few years, so northern areas should do ok I think.

I have some pink in the sky, visible with the eye, where the sun is setting. Photos with my phone are only picking up on the orange of the sunset.

This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25 I do think we will have colder periods, but some of the warm spikes will be extreme +departure days, skewing the overall warmer. So, more variation/volatility vs a constant pattern.

It looks like the CPC thinks the EPO will go negative for the Winter, or the N. Pacific ridge will go polar and extend north. I had this opinion in the Summer, but the last 1-2 months has been more of the same pattern that we have seen for the last 6 Winter's, imo. Will be interesting to see if they verify.. they usually don't go so cold as they are over the PNW and Upper Midwest for a 3-month period. This is especially interesting because the SW, US has been +7F over their all time records for a 3-week period lately. They usually smooth the overall warming signal out for a seasonal forecast, but the forecast is downright cold in the NW 1/3 of the US. If the NW has such a cold Winter, I don't see how we don't go extremely warm in the East, given what has happened over the last few Winters.. we had 3 days of +NAO ridging last January, and DC hit 80*. The same is happening tomorrow.. the NAO is going positive, and there is a 591dm ridge over Toronto, Canada. Little spikes are causing some extreme +departures days.

It's one thing when the PDO is X value. It's another when it's accurately predicting the state of the atmosphere months in advance. In 2013 it was not hitting in the Fall. The one month that the PDO doesn't have a high correlation to is December.. Its highest is Jan-Feb. SE ridge signal of +0.5, or 75%. March is just as weak as December.

Pacific 500mb pattern should finish out October something like 0.90 correlation to the historical -PDO composite.

Now a deep +EPO for early November on the 00z GEFS. Could be way above average if it verifies, +epo's are the warmest pattern.