Stormchaserchuck1

MJO poses the risk of going through phases 4-5 in early Dec

I'm not going to get all excited about the Winter because of a 10-day period of -NAO in November. 12z GEFS is already going back to a -AAM look by hr384.

It's Nov 11th, and Nino 3.4 is -0.3, the coldest region currently. ENSO events start to wane February at the latest. It's almost impossible that we'll get an official La Nina this year.

Maybe a little early, but we do have data suggesting it could be an El Nino 3-4 Winters from now. Sometimes they happen sooner than the data suggests.

It changes fast though.. all we need is 1 Kelvin Wave in the Winter

Yeah, I tested "lead time PDO" vs "time of PDO", and actually found a near 0 advantage on the lead.. The pattern that is in place impacting the PDO actually tested higher historically.. Of course this Winter you can say it will be a -1 to -2 Winter PDO, and that's not lead, it's time of.

The subsurface is neutral and the SOI is neutral.

Latest SST departures: Niño 4 0.2ºCNiño 3.4 -0.3ºCNiño 3 -0.1ºCNiño 1+2 -0.2ºC

You might also want to rename this thread "2024-2025 ENSO Neutral", because we aren't going to get 5 months of ONI -0.5 or less. Nino 3.4 is -0.3 now, and it usually peaks around a month from now. We might not even make it as low as -0.4 on the ONI.

Warm water is showing up in the western-subsurface, which is catching up to what the CPC has shown for a little while Starting to lower the La Nina chances for next year. The subsurface is also Neutral.. so it will be interesting to see if a La Nina-Pacific pattern happens this Winter. As per the subsurface, it's not as much of a blowout as you would think. Since 1998, the Hadley Cell has been La Nina-like in Neutral times though.

5880dm in Ireland tomorrow! -NAO holds through hr384 on 12z GEFS. The 10mb level is cold, so this is a bit of an anomaly. I was thinking because of how extreme the +NAO has been this year, it would have to flip around a little bit before the Winter, if the Winter is to be a +nao. But NAO in November does have a +correlation with the Winter at about 55%.

Really nice -NAO on the 12z GEFS, through the entire run. Does this at the end: I would watch for the Pacific -pna/+epo pattern to flex in future runs though.

Dec-Feb Dec

Major Winter Storm out in the SW They were in the 100s a few weeks ago. These anomaly spikes, I've noticed, have a tendency to even-out thereafter for the last few years.

How about this La Nina-like pattern The globe has acted very La Nina-like, since the subsurface went negative in February. The relative effect index is actually Moderate-Strong Nina-like. I'm trying to figure out this state of things when the SSTs, SOI, and now subsurface have been near neutral.

Yeah, global precipitable water on the uptick is a big part of what's happening right now.

Well if New Mexico can get 4' of snow in early November, than it's hard to say that we can't get it too with the right pattern. My sister lives in Denver, and it has snowed out there a few May's recently, and even on 9-9-2020! When it was still Summer! The largest anomaly over this 26-year period is over the Hadley Cell in the Pacific, not the Poles! And that's more than 30% of the total dataset being covered! It's a West-based La Nina configuration. +AMO has been in flux during this time, too. Increase in global precipitable water minus the pattern plus global warming gives us only about a 0.10-0.15 correlation skew toward less snow, imo.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas, NM is predicted to get 44" of snow tonight and tomorrow! I've been there, it's right off an interstate that goes across the SW, and does not seem to be that high up. https://www.weather.gov/abq/

Yeah -- teleconnections weren't actually all that crazy today, for what kind of warmth it was.

Not only is it hot, but it's humid too! With no clouds!

I do think there could be some -EPO periods this Winter, I'm not totally sold on a front-to-back +epo like some analog research's are suggesting, especially if we have a +NAO this Winter.

I did an analog composite for the warmest Oct-Nov's on record for the CONUS (this year could be #1)

Yeah, it's hot outside. I was immediately looking for the shade lol. I bet a lot of places will get up into the mid-80s today, on Nov 6th! Remember, a day away from the coldest of the year, last Jan 28th, in DC it hit 80*!

Yeah I edited to say that a good amount of cold analogs were recent, some some warm analogs far away. 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2013, 2018, 2019 were all cold analogs used. For the cold I put a minus sign to give the warm-analogs correlation going forward. The Fall to Winter correlation is surprisingly consistent in the last 70 years.