Stormchaserchuck1

It could work though, as the Pacific is still favorable at that time and a -NAO dries everything out.. That h5 pattern actually favors sleet/fz rain storm In future model runs, if the NAO trends more positive, it could happen with a wetter storm, and a more -NAO could be a little drier. I like those low's undercutting a ridge in Alaska

Nice 1046mb High pressure in SE Canada on Dec 7th on the 18z GFS, for that storm threat. I'm actually surprised that surface temps aren't colder with such a strong High pressure to the north.. probably because the NAO is positive.

Just delayed a little bit Current modeling is trending toward a -PNA for mid-December.

Maybe you just shouldn't post on a science forum. I'm thankful for such an angelic presence on this Earth that people can be so stupid.

Long range GEFS has backed off a bit on the shift to warm it was showing a few days ago. Other models didn't agree, and the majority held, although the 2nd week of December is nowhere near as cold of a pattern as the next 7 days. I thought since natural gas was reacting, it could hold some weight, but that 18z GEFS run from 2 days ago is a warm anomaly right now. Poster - Blizzard of '93 pointed this out at the time. I still don't know that when storms get more organized, precip falling wouldn't be rain though, as we are near average temps in the long range on most current modeling.

It's not going to be below normal with that kind of H5. NAO is positive, and it's close in the Pacific to a -PNA.

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain.

This time it was way ahead of models! 12z and earlier runs today had a solid +PNA pattern in the long range, now there is a drastic shift at 18z to almost -PNA in the medium/long range! https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html This is with a +NAO. If that pattern holds in future runs, with a Gulf of Alaska or Aleutian High and +NAO, it's not going to be that cold in the East after Day 10. Europe also goes warmer with +NAO, which has been a new trend of late.

0z GEFS has a big uptick in precip after Day 10, which is great if the Pacific +PNA/-EPO pattern holds. We've seen so much +epo/-pna lately though, that that H5 pattern holding is the real key.

One thing to note is that the NAO will be going positive in about 7 days. All the cold is Pacific-driven. +NAO's in its pure form have as much of a +300% precip difference than -NAO's.. so models may not dry up getting closer if we keep this -epo/+nao pattern. +PNA's are dry though. -epo/+pna/+nao patterns produce 2-6" events, but Balt/DC only average 2-3" in Dec so keep that in mind.

The long term spread with Crude Oil and Gasoline still has Natural Gas very low (spreading with these Energy's adjusts for inflation, and gives more data, going back before 1998).. It's in the top 10% lowest right now in this spread trade, even with a $3.5 price. For a -NAO Winter, we pretty much want Natural Gas to be at least $5-6. It is volatile, but if it gets stuck here I would still expect a warm Winter. Still, it's cool to see the adjustments with long term modeling. Like I was saying last night, it's kind of surprising that long range models have remained cold, as that has not been the trend of the last 8 years.

0z GFS holds +PNA pattern through Day 16, Dec 10. This is backing away from the transition I thought it would be showing now in the long range a few days ago. Pretty much, for the last 8 years after 15 days of a cold pattern we are about 0/20 in holding that pattern, but for now it looks to be holding.

I'm probably 0.2-0.5 degrees too warm, but some flakes are trying to mix back in here.

The long range is not as cold, with a strong -PNA/+NAO trying to develop by Day 16. The model fluctuates a lot, but what the gfs ens are trying to do at hr384 could be 60s in the East a few days later.

2013 is about the only cold analog we have going lately, so I was just making a reference how the strong -PDO that year got weathered by a transition to -WPO in Sept through December. We had a warm Fall pattern this year and the PDO is still super negative, so that may hold weight going further into the Winter, but I do like this Pacific pattern for the next 15 days.

I really like how the snowstorm threat ~Dec 1 is looking on current modeling.. we actually have a +PDO H5 look in the Pacific. -NAO looks like it could hang around longer, making the first few days of Dec the "coming out of strong -NAO storm/threat".

Lamar plays good in Prime Time games. Plus we seem to always have the Chargers number, for whatever reason these statistic stick.. 23-1 vs NFC, 10-1 vs the Bengals, bad against the Steelers etc. If past play-general is any indication, we should beat the Chargers and Eagles

Nice looking low pressure in NY state here Hopefully it stays cooler longer, there could be some isolated heavy precip with bands. Models have the cold air generally bleeding out by mid-day.

5z Hrr has 2-3" snow depth near the MD/PA border tomorrow.

This is because of the constant -WPO being forecasted, through Day 16. Beware though, 2022 started off like this. 2013 did have the pattern change from -PDO in Sept-Oct as a -WPO pattern. This is the +NAO/-EPO correlation I have been talking so much about, as is a default pattern right now. I was saying in the Summer that I would actually prefer +NAO in the Wintertime because of this correlation.

We may have a snowstorm threat around Thanksgiving. The NAO is going to be coming out of a deeply-negative-state, and the Pacific looks favorable right now. Of course, we've had so much +WPO and +EPO for the last 2 years, I want to see that models don't trend away from what they currently are showing, but it has potential..

Now the 1st week of December looks cold. -WPO develops tonight, and holds through the next 15 days on 18z GFS ensembles.. -WPO patterns don't look that cold in the H5 means, but on the surface they are solidly below average. If we are going to have a decent -WPO, I would actually watch for a snowstorm threat when the -NAO is coming up to near 0. A lot of research has been done correlating the rising-out-of-strong-negative NAO state with East Coast snowstorms, and if the Pacific pattern is favorable, there could really be a snowstorm threat, at least north of DC. Watch for around Thanksgiving, or a few days after.

Actually some pretty nice precip with the cutoff storm system Thurs-Fri for northern MD.. something like 0.25" on the 0z gfs with borderline temps. I doubt it accumulates to much, but not ruling some snow out for me and psuhoffman.

The GEFS has consistently showed a non-Nina like pattern in the long range for the last 2 days. I've said before that ENSO subsurface correlates strongly with the N. Pacific pattern. Since it went Neutral 2 months ago, we haven't seen as much -PNA. It actually shows a healthy -WPO in the medium range and in the long range it's been trending toward a more block pattern, albeit a weak signal right now Not the super warm pattern I expected for early Dec

You're right, Larry. Natural Gas is heavily correlated with long range weather. I find it to be a good median, or average, of what's to come, and to be honest with several years on this board, I've never seen anyone on here beat it straight up. The HDD and CDD stuff you are tracking too is cool. I would trade weather derivatives if the market had more volume. Natural Gas gets a lot of volume, so if you do enough studying over time, and can kind of correlate its swings with long range model changes, maybe you can eventually trade it and make $. There are some methods I think that have an advantage over the market, although they aren't always in signal (like right now ENSO subsurface is neutral).