Stormchaserchuck1

For whatever reason, the Pacific -PNA pattern has been a ridiculous consistency since 2018 in the late Winter (Feb-March). I'm curious to see if that pattern holds or breaks this year... all else neutral, I would say -PNA would prevail. A different pattern would be impressive, it would mean something else is occurring globally right now.

I always think La Nina being a cold weather event isn't as bad as it's made out to be.. later in the Winter -PNA does correlate with -NAO a bit more, too. I don't think it's enough data though where you have neutral trumping. Do fading El Nino's to Neutral do better late Winter snow vs sustained El Nino's?

The pattern this Winter in the Pacific was not bad for a west-based La Nina.. be happy that it was weak.. if we broke <-1.0c or lower for the large region it probably would have been different.

Finally feels warm out today for the first day in a while.. the start of a long lasting pattern change though

I can't believe the Chiefs are favored over the Eagles in the SB.. Philly has a much better team: Hurts, Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonte Smith, 3 pro bowlers on the O-line, and NFL #1 ranked defense! They haven't lost a game with Hurts as QB since September. 2 years ago Hurts went on a 25-1 streak covering 2 seasons, so they do get streaky hot. Eagles are a formidable team.

The long term decadal pattern going into Feb-March

La Nina was a late bloomer this year. ENSO subsurface cold didn't get going until late December. Now it's impacting the Pacific pattern in February, and probably March.. It was neutral in Oct-Nov.

February 2018-2024 had a mean 500mb height over the PNA region of +150dm! I went back to the beginning of satellite data in 1948, and found out that the 2nd strongest anomaly covering a 7-year consecutive period was +95dm -NAO 1964-1969 (only 6 consecutive years though). That means that going into this year, we were on a streak of breaking the previous record by 155%! Now models are showing a strong -PNA for this February! That's going to make it year 8 in a row. The streak does also extend into March, as 2018-2024 had a -PNA of +85dm for that 7-year consecutive period.

When the ridge goes up into Alaska, the surface is much colder than 500mb across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS

I'm kind of getting tired of saying the same thing as the last few years -- Neg PNA and +NAO builds in, shutout coming for at least 2-3 weeks. I was waiting for a good setup for snow and it just didn't come after that first one in the new cold pattern. Originally, the 2nd storm looked like that could phase with the PV, but then that trended much more disconnected and we only got 1". More of the same as the last 7 Winter's right now -- strong RNA for February. Our 7-year average for Feb/March broke #2 going back to 1948 for strongest 500mb anomaly by +170%, and it's interesting that that looks to continue for year 8. Definitely something is causing these 2nd half of Winter -PNA periods. The 2-month period from late Nov to mid Jan was fun though.. it snowed here 15 times (flurries or more).

We have seen a La Nina STJ

Really unfavorable period for snow coming up along the East Coast. The NAO/AO are going strongly positive, and a -PNA is building in and it looks like holding strong. This -PNA Is associated with ENSO subsurface negative anomalies, that really picked back up about 3 weeks ago.. since then we have gradually transitioned from +PNA to -EPO (neutral ridging over PNA region), to now -PNA. It's hitting the most unfavorable part of the cycle here in about 2 weeks.. I wouldn't expect any snow south of Boston until the pattern weakens, that could mean a few weeks. It was a really nice 2-month pattern though from late Nov until now.. but big pattern change underway.

ENSO is just a mover of the Pacific pattern, not something that trumps it. Wavelengths at our latitude make the difference, so you would be more accurate measuring +PNA or -PNA events for snowstorms. It does also connect with the STJ though, but you still need cold, and it's just not coming or "reloading" from now to the time of the storm.

Yeah it's pretty close - I don't like that we have high heights out ahead of the trough with this storm. Make a composite of 15 GOA or -PNA ridges, and 13 or 14 times it evolves too warm for us to have snow.. it is close to the coldest time of the year, but we need a better pattern imo.

I've said this before though - It's ok that the South, like Texas, Oklahoma etc get a snowstorm out of this. The pattern changes quickly from the -48hrs to the time of the storm. We have no high pressure to the north.. By the time the coastal makes it off of Ocean City, we will be above freezing. That High pressure organizing in the Gulf of Alaska is the reason.

In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region.

Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before.

I predict 0" from this storm in DC and Baltimore, maybe a dusting on the front end.

I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us.

Not really.. I've only been bullish about this storm we are having now out of all the storms in the last 5 years, and this is the only one that's verifying. Before this, 5.5" on Nov 15th 2018 was the record. The thing is we haven't had good setups.. this storm had a good setup. That's why I correctly predicted it from 7 days out. A bias means you are favoring one side over the other in verification, but that hasn't happened with me.. Sometimes it's just an easy call: I think this one in 5-6 days is an easy call. When it doesn't snow much with that storm, it won't mean that there is a warm bias. I would love a constant wintery pattern.. it's not happening yet. If there is another setup like this one today with -NAO and a favorable Pacific pattern, I will probably predict snow well in advance. Forecasting results over the last 5 years have not indicated a warm bias, we've just had mostly unfavorable patterns over that time. Here, 8 days ago: and

Actually I was all over todays storm, from when models were showing a cutter and rain. I said "It's not going to cut with such a strong -NAO and favorable Pacific pattern". I also noted that the 50/50 low was perfect for this storm.. was one of the first to call it with Ji lol

If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way from here for it to be snow.

If -NAO's continue to be wetter like this, wait until we do a -NAO and +PDO decadal phase.. it looks like they could possibly align together in the coming time. But yeah, much more sensitive further south

I miss the conferences too

We have more precipitable water now.. the snow decreasion is probably about 5-10% but more variance between a no-snow Winter and a 40-45"+ Winter.