Stormchaserchuck1

Also, a Natural Gas drop from 3.4 to 3.0 is implying a +NAO for January. I think the Crude Oil/Gasoline-Natural Gas spread is currently #2 lowest, behind only last year.

Matching analogs for a time period, taking them and seeing what they did in the future. We had a really strong +EPO pattern Dec 2023 - July 2024, so I went back to the 1940s and found 30 best matches to that pattern. Then when looking at what they did in the future, there was actually a +4F mean for much of the Midwest and East for the following November-March (2024-2025). A +4F signal for 40% of the dataset (30/75 years) over 5-months is strong.

Wow! I'm impressed that it even seems to lead model changes/trends. I was noticing movements early in the day, then 18z and 0z would adjust. Now the long range is very warm, with a strong SE ridge for mid and possibly late December.

Thanks! Phoenix had major late Summer/early Fall heat wave, breaking their 3-week record by +7F! When I rolled that forward, I got a +PNA composite for Dec and January, so maybe January has a chance at a cold shot. I was getting a lot of +NAO roll forwards for January though. The CONUS was actually record warmest Dec 2023 to July 2024, and a list of 30 analogs gave a strong signal for the rest of the year - above to very above average through March 2025, with August and December being the only pattern breaks. August did hit, as it was a cooler month, and early December was cold too, but the strong roll forward was pretty warm for Jan-Feb-March, with a SE ridge. I would say below average chances this year, but if the NAO is going to be positive, that has been correlating with -EPO, so watch for some 5-7 day cold periods.

This is what you call a massive difference from a few days ago. It's no surprise the long range went warmer with the medium range trending like that. A lot of people got excited about the Winter because of this 2-week cold period, but the same thing happened last year when the NAO was super negative in early December and 2022 had a -NAO/-EPO December too. I think we will make it to Christmas without accumulating snow. Maybe hope that precip tomorrow night is snow.

Here you go Larry https://x.com/WestSeaWx/status/1863471992156160321?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1863471992156160321|twgr^007f217bf200f801e3d5d3c535e0dc0db720024d|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheweatherforums.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2FWestSeaWx%2Fstatus%2F1863471992156160321

Definitely feeling like we are going to start to enter a warm pattern. There was a lot of stuff in the Summer pointing to a +NAO Winter, and that's starting to flash some signs in the long range. If that gets going with -PNA, it could get really warm around Christmas. I would even say there is probably a >50% chance that the Northeast finishes December near average to slightly above in temperatures. I was kind of surprised that the CPC went cold for December yesterday, because this 2 week below average stretch is the only time we have seen such a thing in the continental US in over a year!

Even for that range, it's a massive shift. They had an army of 1030's mb High pressures from western Canada to Maine 2 days ago.

When we make it Christmas without snow you'll be saying "Chuck's science was right".

Now the 0z GFS has it raining up to the US/Canada border for the Dec 8th storm. Quite a little model shift in the last 2 days.

I think they only had 1 fake hand off to Henry where Lamar ran it. Like I said, the new NFL playoff bracket makes a potential injury the greater variable. They should realistically be running Lamar 10+ times per game. And Lamar is still the front runner for MVP, 30 TDs and 3 INTs, 600+ yds rushing. I think this is a good team, the defense has gotten better as the season went on. It looks like they will end the season with 9/17 regular season games played being against playoff teams. 10/17 if TB makes it, and that doesn't even include the Bengals 2x and Cowboys who were tough at the time.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.0 4.5 3.8 0.9

0z Euro also has long range -PNA. Could end up being a near average December tempwise in the Northeast, maybe even slightly above average if things trend that way for later in December.

I'm not buying all this cold Winter stuff being posted about on Twitter because of this 2 week period. It's also surprising that the CPC went below average in the Mid Atlantic for December today. They seem mutable to the current pattern, too. We are in a strongly +EPO/-PNA regime, and there are Summer signal that rolls the NAO forward positive for the Winter (North Atlantic SSTA's). This 2 week cold is actually the first time such a thing has occurred for the continental US in over a year (below average)!

It looks like the GFS wants to go back to -PNA in the long range. Not currently supported by its ensembles, so we'll see how that goes.

563dm heights in DC out ahead of it.

Amazing how we had 1030s mb Highs on the US/Canada border yesterday, now today there is a sub-1000mb low in Wisconsin

We had a big time +NAO in '13-15. The NAO is really underestimated for its precip correlation. A really good Pacific, like we had in '13-15 and a super +NAO will no doubt lead to a pattern that is giving us snow every 3-4 days. Here's the Winter NAO precip correlation (default is positive) This is why the Dec 7 storm has a chance, it's not a suppressed pattern.

The Broncos currently make it at 7-5, and the runner ups are the Dolphins and Colts at 5-7. There are 3 wild card teams making it. So if the Dolphins or Colts win out (lol), they are still only 10-7. Broncos could finish 2-3 and still probably make it at 9-8. Yeah.. I was hoping they would pick up Daniel Jones. Lamar getting injured is season over. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't play completely serious (Lamar running for 1st downs) through the remaining games.

We'll see, I'm 90% sure that in that Hemispheric H5 pattern it's a rainstorm. Dec 7th is probably our chance in this cold pattern.

Upper latitude indexes dominate at that time range.. plus it's early Dec, we don't need a trough, we need blue.

Still thinking the pattern is too warm for the Dec 11th storm

The new playoff bracket in the NFL also makes a large part of the later half of the season's games irrelevant. Only the #1 seed gets a bye, and to make the playoffs the #8 seed right now is 5-7, so the Ravens can finish the year almost losing all of their games and still make the playoffs. But they can also win out and still have to play the 1st round with home field advantage being the only difference, besides the team played which really isn't a major difference. I would rather sit Lamar through these last 5 games, and have him healthy for the playoffs. Still have to play 1st round regardless. That's why they weren't playing serious vs the Steelers, they are the kind of team that would aim to get him hurt.

^Would be some snow threats too if that pattern holds, with the NAO positive (+NAO's are wetter). This is the pattern we were talking about in this thread, this Summer.. +NAO and -EPO have been correlating lately for the last 11 years.

With those high pressures it would normally be snowing down to the mountains in northern Georgia. Will be interesting to see if >1030s mb Highs down to the CONUS hold, as we haven't seen that pattern for a long time..