Stormchaserchuck1

Summer pattern is so much more stable than the Winter. Year-to-year has a pretty good overall correlation, like +0.3. So you can expect at like 62% the same pattern as last year most likely, in terms of the H5. Fall I don't want to make a call on yet, I want to see if last years trend of +NAO's in the Summer continues or not. More +NAO this May-Aug may bring about a cooler Fall, imo (so more out to sea in the Atlantic late season). Hard to say on specifics.. watch the MJO. Are you familiar with it? When it's favorable there are like 4x more storms in the Atlantic than when it's unfavorable. And MJO is a 40-day oscillation, so it can be somewhat predictable when you get closer.

I would say Humberto is a cool name. Jerry seems like one that wants to be retired. We had a record +PNA this last Winter for non-El Nino. The correlation for following Hurricane season is above average H5 just about everywhere (surprisingly because the last 25 years have been more -PNA, with a warmer planet). Not as much tropical low pressure in that map, though You would say tropics are warming from lingering El Nino (because of the previous winter +PNA correlation). but it usually transitions. Still there is probably a left over El Nino signal in that correlation composite.. and we didn't have an El Nino last Winter.

Nino 1+2 still warm in April does have a slight correlation with warm Atlantic SSTA's peak season..

People forget about that QB sneak play that Andrew's was so successful with. A lot of 4th and short conversions. He's also the Ravens all time leader in receiving TD's

I thought it was surprising that the O's were 6th place world series betting odds pre-season. I guess the betters liked that they were young, but I could tell after the 2nd half of last year that that was an easy call under.

Nino 1+2 is cooling rapidly.. looks like Neutral ENSO for hurricane season

I probably wouldn't expect something too hot. The trend for the last 20 years has been a trough in the east/ridge in the west during the Summertime. Last year that pattern really changed, and I think we will see some year-to-year lingering effects from that this Summer. And the SW, US was +2F over their previous record last Summer! And is going to likely have a hot Spring, so some of that usually comes east +time.. I would at least expect an above average Summer in the east, and maybe comfortably so.

You got me thinking, since '79-80 was such a big +PNA Winter. and per CPC, this was record +PNA Winter non-El Nino. So the roll forward does actually have a decent correlation with hot Summer.

Yeah, in my Winter forecast I got the state of 10mb correct (from +QBO and La Nina), but didn't get that it would translate to -AO at the surface.. about 75% of the time the AO is the same state as 10mb.

I made a pretty good research about a strong 10mb vortex Nov-Feb, switching strongly to the opposite state in March. This year is about the most extreme example of that, so it's valid analog work. Analogs favor a hotter Summer.

A lot of models are showing above average temps just about everywhere in the CONUS for the Summer.. they had 80% of the country above average for DJF though, and it ended up being 70% below average.. not a perfect science, but it seems like a lot is favoring a hotter than average Summer. SW, US heat ridge is expected to really pick up in a few weeks, and that's usually a leading indictor to weather further east +months time.

Yeah, overall the SSW underperformed a bit wrt to below average temps in the East and Europe.

Very cool. Nice pictures. Your trip to the UP of Michigan was probably my favorite. They had one heck of a LES season.

I'll have to do a write up in the next few days, now that US climate division data has updated.. I actually did good on methodology, but it didn't translate at the surface to -PNA (SE ridge), so that was my flaw. Natural Gas though jumped 60% this Winter, so if you went with the CPC's cooler forecast, you could have made money.

I think we had 3 record breaking storms last year, for how strong they got east of 40W at that time of the year. It's no surprise SSTs have cooled off this year, after a La Nina.

Here is how Dec - March 24-25 compares with 13-14 It was relatively the 2nd coldest Dec - Feb in the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS since 13-14 though. I do get that "cool analog" correlation

90-day SOI is near +9.. here's how that rolls forward to following years ENSO Pretty good North Pacific High (+NOI) correlation

Weak

Well I got barely any rain out of this nor'easter. It was suppose to last for 4 days, and it was only 2 days. It seems like the overall dry pattern is still in effect, where the best chance at good rains comes from a SE ridge and low pressure coming in from the west and thunderstorms.

I don't disagree that that SE ridge has been stronger than usual.. it was really bad 3 Winter's ago, but the last 2 years when Greenland blocking happened, it has actually happened with a cooler pattern. The one big anomaly being this February, but there was a really strong low pressure in the Atlantic at 50N (the -AO was too far north, over the North Pole). However, I do think if the CPC NAO goes the direction it has in the Spring/Summer/Fall in the coming Winter's than we will see more benchmark storms and snow. A general warming is definitely occurring, but I'm not ready to connect it to SE ridge, since SE ridge is in play with a number of factors, where something like a Southwest, US High pressure is more independent.. I think a globe warming should be warming the west coast the most.

Another really high correlation is state of the AO and benchmark storms. I will give this one to bluewave.. that lately this one has not been hitting, although you can see it's kind of mutable, where NAO is right on the coast.

10mb warming still going strong on April 10th... making it 32 straight days! (1st day was March 10th)

One of the biggest anomalies is how the Southeast, US (north of Florida) has stayed shielded from landfalling tropical systems, since year 2000, when the Atlantic activity has been well above average during that time. Until last year, that was because of a trough pattern over the East in the late Summer.. then last year a heat ridge developed for the first time in a long time and stayed there for 2 months.. finally in September the pattern broke down, and it got cooler in the east, when tropical activity started heating up, peaking in October. It will be interesting to see if we see some semblance of last Summer this year, and if it may time better with Atlantic tropical activity.

I guess you have it stuck in your head, the 12/20 times it didn't happen vs the 500/784 that I'm pointing out it did. My point is that the NAO is strongly correlated with benchmark low pressure systems. And that we've had 14 straight +NAO Winters in a row. That's all.

Your issue is with the CPC and how they measure the NAO. I've been impressed though over the last few Winters - their methodology has correlated with X conditions over the east coast more than what happens over Greenland and the Davis Strait. Many times in the last few years we had a SE ridge with Greenland block, but their index says it's positive during that time. You might say there is something wrong with that, but the methodology has nothing to do with the east coast. In other words, Greenland block is correlating -0.4, but their methodology has been at -0.6 to -0.7, for something independent. Like I said, it's a specific measure of sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic ocean, which is not always completely connected to Polar blocking.