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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    This doesn't look so bad on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean The thing is, I'm suspicious of the big +EPO ridge turning into a -NAO in the medium range (usually they don't run into each other like that). And for the last few days, the long range GEFS has tried to build a -EPO at the 384hr range, to lose it lately. That Pacific pattern has been stuck there for the last 3 days. Let's see what happens when we get closer. Verbatim, it's a good look, but I don't really like the evolution to getting there. It might end up verifying as a slight -pna or something warmer. That particular panel, the way that it is, looks good though. Let's see if the MJO remains strong going into the later phases.. Usually after such a strong +EPO, at H5 the pattern has to reload though. The ridging usually doesn't just go poleward all around and give us snow.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good work. This is what the Dec +PNA rolls forward to -30dm Gulf of Alaska Low. Long range models are already picking up on this pattern, where the cold anomaly goes into Alaska, for the end of December. I have often seen when there is a signal ++time, it usually happens before that. Your examples look like 4/5 they hold, but I would be surprised given the state of other things. I did roll forward record-breaking heat in Phoenix during the Summer, and it gave me a +PNA signal for the following Dec-Jan.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    They have a +NAO tendency, and yeah keep that ridge out west. I would be surprised if the Winter is that big of a bust in the NW though, as CPC had 2nd tier below average, and a lot of the seasonal models were cold there too. It kind of reminds me of the hurricane season when the NHC went with 18-25 storms, and that was looking like a huge bust until it caught up at the end and hit at 18. It's an individual roll forward, as it doesn't really consider ENSO subsurface, PDO, and really the decadal trend of -PNA right now. I think the big takeaway is that there is average to slightly above average temps in the Midwest and East, when a +PNA straight up in January is a very cold pattern in the East (-0.5 correlation, or 75%). So if we hold +PNA through January, it's cold, but December by itself doesn't necessarily show that.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    January correlation following +PNA December's
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was impressed by how strong of a signal it was giving, as 40% of the dataset was being used (30/75 years) and it was giving +4-5 mean anomalies for a 5-month period. In Jan-Feb, the max went up to +6F. Something like 85% of the years followed the above average pattern for Jan-Feb. It has hit every month so far, I'd guess it favors a +NAO or +EPO/-PNA for Jan-Feb.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's mixing with rain. I'm probably right on the very edge, there were some good size flakes when I was driving on my road though! Car temp said 40F, and nothing is coming close to landing.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm actually about 1 mile north of Fallston. It's up a hill that goes about 30', so yeah probably 500'.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, big wet flakes mixing in. It only started when I pulled onto my road about 1 mile from my house.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have snow!
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd rather not have a big +PNA in December. Temps minus precip makes it a negative correlation in the Northeast. We had the same thing last December, then when the temp correlation goes from -0.1 (+10%) in Dec to -0.5 (+50%) in January, on Jan 1st last year, it switched to -PNA lol
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    At 500mb, +AAM favors a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and ridge south of Greenland. Not much of the EPO correlates with AAM, maybe it favors it being slightly positive.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just wouldn't expect a major Stratosphere warming. Also the November 50mb QBO is the highest ever since 1979, at +12.17 (#2 is +10.75).
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    This looks like a Strong El Nino December Very +AAM. It seems that those AAM graphs that people have been positing has some value, as this pattern only showed up in the last day or two.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have flurries with almost no clouds in the sky! How cool!
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's not impossible, but a +QBO/La Nina state does favor a cold 10mb about 75% of the time. Last year for example, we had -QBO/El Nino and there were 4 Stratosphere warmings. 2 years ago it was +QBO/La Nina and 10mb stayed mostly cold/ +QBO is strong right now. Here is what we've seen at 10mb for the start of cold season vs +QBO correlation
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have thundersnow! A bolt just hit and it's snowing moderately. Dusting on the mulch and driveway.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    54-55, 64-65, 83-84, 00-01. They were all below average temps, but I don't know about snow
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    The snow shower earlier today was better. This one mixed with rain
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's actually not true. 95-96 was a Weak Nina. Weak Nina's were actually a cold composite (random coincidence from not enough samples) until the early 2000s. Now I think 5 in a row have been warm.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice looking snow squall line about to pass through. 39F
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I actually had some cotton candy flakes mixing in. The squall line around 4am should be fun, models were showing rain but if this one is snow, it's probably going to be a wet snow.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've got a snow shower!
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see if the +SOI pattern holds into January. Things become more uniform Nina in Jan-Feb vs Dec with indices such as that. I found it interesting that the composite was cold Dec in the East for +SOI, and it's been pretty strongly positive since Nov 10th. It's been a +PNA pattern, but the SOI for that little point in time favored it. If you put it all together, it's going to look at H5 like that Dec map.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI has gone strongly positive for the first time since March 2023. 30-day is approaching +10, after being below +5 all year. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ The medium range pattern actually looks a lot like +SOI Dec in the PNA and NAO regions
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