Stormchaserchuck1

Good post. I've been noticing how much subsurface anomalies have been dropping the past few weeks, we are back almost in Moderate Nina range. And the 30-day SOI recently hit +15, after not going above +6 all year. There are not many analogs of the SOI behaving like that. Could increase La Nina chances going into next year, should be interesting to see how it evolves. Events don't usually "start" in December like this.

I just can't believe how much the polar blocking weakened on 12z GFS ensembles, again today. That is a 3 days in a row. It's a weak signal now. In January, you can get some snow with many patterns, but we are talking like +150dm over the EPO and NAO regions. It's not a major cold signal, we only get a substantial trough in the east at 384hr, again.

Only 3 ensemble members show snow though. The mean average looks like that because the cold front passages skew it, when mixed with warm members. Compared to earlier today, the GEFS is not nearly as cold in the long range. Last night and this morning it had heavy troughs focused over the Northeast. Now it dives troughs into the West coast and progresses them into the Midwest. It's still not warm here, but I like that cold trough look much better. His panel is a snapshot, what we need is a sustained trough there. This was the case yesterday but not today lol

The 18z GFS is cutter after cutter. Polar blocking really weakened in the last 2 days, it's still there, but things are able to run underneath. It's starting to look like the longer range, after Jan 5th, is the better chance, maybe when the NAO is neutralizing after its bout to negative. Let's see if LR models (300+ hours) hold the -EPO in the next few days.

Polar blocking really lost steam on todays 12z GEFS. It's a weak signal in the long range. Last February the same thing happened, people were comparing to 95-96, but in those maps we have 200-300dm patterns, and what the long range models are showing is only 150-180dm right now. Allows other patterns to happen underneath of it. The NAO turning very negative right after the +EPO CONUS ridge now happens with a -PNA And although we still have -nao/-epo in the long range, this is a weak signal... oranges and light red. I would not be comparing to Jan 5th 1996, lol

brrr!

0z GFS ensembles still have it, but I'd watch for a trend away from Polar blocking tomorrow, as the GFS usually leads the way and that's the 2nd consecutive run showing it. 2 days from now we have a 4700sdm PV strengthening east of Greenland, and shortly after a strong +EPO, so when those patterns pass, long range modeling should be more reliable.

13F

0z GFS is losing the pattern a little inside 300hrs. GEM still has it.

If they win the division, they won't play the Chiefs until the AFC championship. I'm not impressed by the Chiefs this year, they are probably the most lucky 14-1 team in NFL history. Net points has them something like 10th in the NFL.

Ravens are a good team. With the clock running when people run out of bounds, etc., it's easy to lose a few games. I think they are the best in the AFC.

I continue to love the -EPO look from Jan 1st onward.. temp correlation precip correlation Net temp+precip gives this our best index state for snowfall by >30% Right now models showing close to a 2 standard deviation -EPO. Long range models are very flexible to current conditions, so I would like to see this pattern hold on modeling past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO period coming up in a few days.

+PNA and -NAO are dry, but -EPO has a neutral precip correlation plus the most extreme negative temps.. so you could say that the current model look is actually a little better than that time in 95-96, although randomness does spike some storms in the H5 drier patterns.

95-96 was a +PDO, but SSTs are more a reflection of atmospheric conditions, so changing times aren't gauged well by the PDO. This could be one of those anomalous years. I'm actually surprised that the CPC is so cold in their 3-4 week forecast. They have the cold centered in the Tenn valley, which your composite for most snowy Winters showed.

Great pattern continuing on 384hr GFS ensemble Medium and long range models move a lot as per as what is happening currently, so I want see us make it past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO pattern for the validity.

We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time. I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year models missed a few times at that range..

Yeah, I haven't seen a 3-4 week look like that in over a year.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

GFS and GFS ensembles got better on 1st week of January pattern today, increasing the -EPO signal This is LR GFS, but it's what models are showing right now, with big ridges pinching north. I would definitely take my chances with this in early Jan. Let's see if it stays consistent or changes in the next few days.

Still snowing pretty good here 6th time it's snowed this year already

EPO is raging positive.. it usually busts warm.

Very cool from a meteorological standpoint! We get to witness a 1/170 year event, this -PDO. Being aware of it as it happens gives us a good read on what the index is, and what it produces. Like I said, it's been hitting its matching pattern the last 4 Winter's. I don't really think this +pna can sustain, although some analog sets like warm Phoenix in the Summer/Fall did show that through January. February seems like an easier call on -pna..

Cold ENSO subsurface is making a comeback in the last few days! If it sustains, I've found that it correlates with a -PNA January. This I would say is like a "Weak Nina".

Latest Hrr was actually pretty aggressive there RAP is rain for the area lol. It will probably snow a little bit. It's cold.

Maybe the models are weighing too heavily the MJO? Should be interesting to see if it holds this look the next few days.. I also think at that time we are hitting Day 40 on the +PNA phase, which is usually a complete cycle.