Stormchaserchuck1

0z GEFS concedes to the EPS with now more -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Did they update the EPS in 2024? It was not this good last Winter.. @psuhoffman I see your point about AO, and this is a pretty clear cut -AO. Might favor a snowstorm when it has a strong anomaly, but I was saying it didn't look that strong in the long range, but the GEFS is moving toward the EPS again. Will be interesting to see if we see a -NAO/-AO dominated cold pattern again.. it seems like it's been a really, really long time since that has been the case.. but now Jan 2024, Dec/Jan 24-25, and if it happens in the next 2 weeks.. that's 3 times lately, after pretty much all SE ridges with -NAO 2016-2023.

We never have negative 500mb. The average high temp at this time of year is low 40s. It will take a lot of High pressure or low level cold to make up the difference. The only time I'm seeing troughs is after storm systems at 288hr. By the way that's the only frame that has a trough. I'm also not opposed to frozen precip when EPO runs negative Days 3-7.

They seem to be in two different camps. EPS has been running cooler. Today it's raining. Maybe the warmer model will win.

I'm biased to the seasonal trend of late and how it tears through MR/LR modeling with regards to -AO/NAO.. remember last year? It was later in the year, but the big -NAO/-AO dominated pattern quickly disappeared.. I have a feeling something will overcome it. possibly the central-Atlantic trough. It's either going to snow or it isn't going to snow.. I say low chances but we'll see soon enough Those waves that occur during -EPO, when the ridge moves over Alaska, are the ones to watch. a bit shorter term.

It's a little -AO ridge for some time, with an undercutting south-based +NAO on GEFS. If the CDC monthly or daily composites page was working, I would show you guys a composite of analogs. Here's hr384 "the magical load up and load up MECS pattern" I've seen the phantom outputs at this time of year.. not really impressed

Maybe it's a -NAO. That central-Atlantic ridge at -250dm is almost the same strength as the block over Greenland.. if that has a stronger anomaly, I'm going to say that it's a dominant pattern, but right now it's probably barely -nao on the eps.

Roads are fine

Good test to see if the -AO can dominate, there are anomalies in the mid-latitudes I don't really like, slight Pacific ridge east of PNA region, and south-based +NAO, although some of you will say that's not a +NAO. It does actually fall under the area (1 of 2) that is more likely to see a dominant anomaly, and there is a slight +temp signal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in that composite. This is why I think oncoming storms may trend warmer than snow.. is that right after a front passes? It seems to be a ridge/trough kind of pattern. Give me a +PNA/-NAO over that any day.

Not real picturesque out there this morning, but here is my Japanese maple

Nice cell in western MD I'm up to 30

A line of storms is forming in Kentucky

Heavier precip moving in now. Temp is 28. Should be nice

29F, rain. Ice on the rails and branches. Sidewalk and driveway just wet.

This one might be more interesting for ice, because we have a -EPO at the time.

WWA's probably too far south

Sleet has started here.

CPC got it wrong too.. they usually do good. I think all seasonal models had a SE ridge.

31F, cloudy

I agree but we have like a +0.25 correlation tendency right now.

The monthly composites page is down, or I would show you I'm referring to the -PNA, it's anomaly from Feb-March 2018-2024 has been record breaking by like 150%. Even if we neutralize that this year.. we need cold 500mb to get snow going into March. Actually in the last 8 years... last January we had snow in +PNA/-NAO, this early Jan we got snow in +PNA/-NAO.. when the indexes have been super favorable is the only time we're getting >4". Otherwise it's been a near shutout. I'll post the Feb 2018-2024 map when the CDC page comes back online. It seems like after our coldest day of the year, Jan 27th, something flips a switch and we amplify -PNA... this year it might be closer to neutral, but I don't think we're going to reverse the pattern anytime soon.

I've been noticing our Springs have been warming up fast in the decadal trend period.. that's why I kind of cringe when I hear of excitement Feb 20 - March 15.. I think something about the sun angle has been associated with -PNA conditions in the late Winter (my theory). I think our best chance is actually days 4-7, when we have -EPO.. then the block lifts out and stays at 90N. the 18z GEFS still has south-based +NAO, which could flare up somewhat of a SE ridge at 500mb.

That Atlantic trough is far enough south where it's no longer a +NAO. Is that the frame where it goes furthest south, or does it sustain? (I know GEFS has been consistently showing +NAO in the long range.. but EPS has been leading the way in the Pacific). ^Nice 4 wave trough pattern around a -AO..

23z Hrr has quite a bit of fz. rain here... about 0.4". Models no longer showing a lot of sleet like they did yesterday.

Was excited until I saw hr456