Stormchaserchuck1

Can you believe the Chiefs are favored? I have a rule, don't bet against Mahomes, but he didn't even make the Pro bowl this year..

I think the Eagles will win, as they have a much better team. Maybe even by 2 scores.

I think -EPO/+NAO would produce a 30" or 40" Winter, because NAO is strongly correlated to precip, and the positive phase has 3x more precip than negative phase (+0.50 correlation vs -0.50 correlation, is that 3x?)! EPO is neutral precip and the coldest pattern of all indexes.. so with the EPO having slightly more cold correlation than NAO, we would be below average temps with above average precip in that pattern! Only thing is EPO is loosely related to H5, so some of the cold precip could be ice. I also think it's just a general point - mid latitude cold, not necessarily related to upper latitude High pressure, is the snow pattern. So us losing mid latitude cold is the generality that is correlating with less snow. It doesn't always have to stack.

PNA might be a little underrated.. In your maps, its signal beats out the NAO and AO. Also, for a 90N block to work, you should be at 45N. So the composite also shows 80N blocking (northern Alaska/Greenland) as the strongest signal for 40N here... something to keep in mind because this coming block is right up over the Arctic circle. But +PNA is strong, and the 8-year period is most -PNA on record by 150% over any #2 (at least for Feb-March)! Greenland blocking recently has disconnected somewhat, but when we have a strong +PNA/-EPO pattern it generally doesn't disconnect (I know we had -epo in Dec 2022 and March 2023, but that's the only time it didn't correlate with cold). If you believe the CPC, it's also been +NAO in the Winter something like 41/46 Winter months since 2013.. and record -PNA.. it's no surprise our snowfall is record low (although I think they base a lot of NAO calculation on mid-latitudes - the ability for a Greenland ridge/block to produce a trough underneath of it)!

About AO/NAO being snow signals.. If you base them solely on High pressure, I don't think so. The mid latitude cold is a stronger pattern. You see -50 anomaly in the Pacific and <-40dm anomaly off of western Europe, but the whole northern latitude AO/NAO blocking only reaches +35dm. A lot of times when we are talking about the NAO, we are talking about a Greenland block. But the mid latitude needing to be cold (50/50 low, +PNA) is actually more important, according to those maps.

Yeah but it happened. We had a real strong -EPO that Winter. EPO is more of a rare pattern, and you see it usually run in 7-12 day cycles vs longer periods, so you generally don't get it in a full Winter composite (a lot of + and - periods in a Winter). It wasn't like some tropical pattern that lead to an anomalous snowfall that Winter.. it was Pacific driven cold, legit imo.

Yeah, but include 2014 because there's no reason why not to include it.. +NAO/-EPO is actually a pattern that has happened in tandem more since 2013.. I'm surprised we don't get more -EPO driven snow, maybe there's a lot of ice instead. Here's the 10 analogs you came up with This doesn't scream blocking to me. This screams mid latitude cold. Last year I ran a composite of December's before DCA's most snowy Winter.. in those composites 90% of the N. Hemisphere was below average in December. This isn't a -NAO signal as much as general mid-latitude trough/below average.. -NAO is the 3rd strongest anomaly in that ^ map. A cold trough over western Europe is actually a greater anomaly by almost double! Wow (in the upper latitudes there is more volatility, so that's even more impressive)! +PNA too.. And the Arctic circle/North Pole might actually be too far north for a block to correlate with snow (I guess unless you're at 45N).

I think they have it included. I was wondering about the string of High pressures, and if it was going to break down allowing storms to track more north again.. so far that looks to be the case. It will be hard to have so many rainstorms though with the AO at -4 and nothing really unfavorable in the Pacific/Atlantic mid latitudes. For the data collected on -AO being our snowstorm pattern.. know that a ridge at 90N is rare. Usually the NAO/AO overlap, and they are just talking about Greenland block.. I wonder if the Arctic circle is actually too far north to have substantial effect on our precip type.

What do you mean, you think the models are warm biased because of Nina?

That's called a -AO. NAO is a North Atlantic sea-level pressure measurement.

+PNA, which is starting to show up in the long range, favors lower pressure on the coast.. like that 968mb frame on the LR GFS. Hopefully it holds.. it's going against the 7-year seasonal trend For learning, -EPO is always an ice possibility pattern.. non-neg EPO is rain/snow.

It's an active pattern in the medium range.. so much for all that drought stuff everyone was going with after the dry Summer.

Seems like you found your tool. I was saying the 500mb pattern didn't look good when it was far out, but everything came together to match the snow output.

LR EPS is trying to build a 50/50 low after Day 11 and +PNA too.. long range is looking better and better. Kudos to those who said it before.. what were you looking at, the extended weekly EPS?

Almost snows for 24 hours on the GFS. I like that 1030mb High to the NW... then there is a pretty strong system right on its tail.. going into a -EPO pattern, could be some ice. Holding that High pressure to the north?

I do like the -EPO days 12+ on the 6z GEFS. It seems in the 2-week period models are going more +PNA/-EPO in the Pacific for the last few runs..

Does the ECMWF mix?

Yeah, do you know that if you include the Bengals who missed the playoffs because of 2 losses to the Ravens, the Ravens played 14 playoff teams this year. We also played all 4 teams from the AFC/NFC championship. The Bills are in the easiest division, and also had to play the AFC south and NFC west lol. Besides that, Lamar is a much better QB, his numbers were much better this year.

I was going to say - the gfs where it is pretty much is a bullseye.

With High pressure to the north too. It's been rare to have that. In the 1960s it used to happen a lot, but not lately. I'm interested to see if that could lead to big model changes as we get closer. Anyone know when is the last time we had 1030mb High pressure to the NW of a winter storm?

Earlier in the season, models had an army of >1030mb High pressures going from the Midwest to the Northeast from this range or maybe a few days further out... that ended up breaking down and it rained up to Canada with low pressure there instead lol. I'm not saying that's going to happen here.. the EPO is very negative, which correlates high pressure exactly there, and I don't think the EPO was negative early in the season.. but it's something to keep in mind. High pressure in SE Canada/Great Lakes has been a phantom pattern lately, happening only rarely. Will be interesting to see if this maybe trends a little north.

0z EPS looked good with a strong -EPO, High pressure block going north of Alaska That's a cold pattern at the surface, despite +500mb heights.. favors snow and ice. Models have also kind of worked in a 50/50 low for the storm.

06z GFS looks good, with a 1048 HP in the Midwest, and a string of >1030mb High's right to Pennsylvania. Could be a storm with temps in the 20s.

So much for seasonal trend and La Nina lol. That's a completely different pattern this year, if that +PNA verifies. I thought it was strong: record -PDO in the Fall, 7-year streak breaking the record by 150%, and Weak La Nina.... but we have not had -PNA in the Pacific at all this Winter. When it's been modeled, that modeling has quickly changed, now the strongest anomaly on that GEPS map is a Aleutian trough! End of the EPS has an Aleutian trough, too.

Tropical jet in NW Russia! That's a 5820dm anomaly in NW Russia in mid-Winter. The frame before looks like it's >+600dm anomaly. Maybe bluewave has something on how record breaking it is.