Stormchaserchuck1

I like the -AO that's been building, especially over Russia, since August.

It doesn't snow when the PNA is moderate to strongly negative recently, that's our worse pattern, even with >2SD -NAO. MR/LR pattern reminds me a lot of March 2018: Good news is it was followed by a cooler April. Let's see what happens. Second recent case of -PNA, -NAO was Jan 2021 cold again followed that's it since 2013.. as far as analogs go.

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina Winter's have been -NAO December seems to be dominant/middle

Looks like it's turning positive. Reminds me of 09-10 actually.

Look at how wet the Pacific got at hr384 6z

Look how wet the Pacific/STJ is at the end of this run.

0 for Atlanta the whole year.

NAO has been negative on Christmas last 7/8 years by +100dm> , while the Dec-Mar average NAO for the period is -60dm-median-average. (since 2013/4) You can throw out this +NAO signal

Do you like this, Pacific-Atlantic ridges hook up 20 analogs Dec 20.. overall signal randomizes a lot Dec 25 +PNA Dec 30 There's my +PNA Pattern change into January

Kick this -PNA out of there.. 3 contours on the GOA low

ACCESS TO PR/OT

Weak Went through a 4-5 year dark period here

I actually like the pattern after, +NAO/+PNA, probably better, if not for the high-tendency percentage of lifting out of -NAO. personal theory is that we do better for snowfall these days in +NAO.. -0.60 overall skew(neutral[neutral](1 being good -NAO, -1 being bad +NAO, -0.60 of that (NAOalone))

What a nice day! I've noticed these are the best days (-PNA, EC trough/-500mb,neutral NAO)

Love it.. this is better than the -NAO in my opinion (black arrow) (cold western Europe), is actualy a higher SD than -NAO (These 15D-16D models correlate at 0.80.)

Coming out of west-based strong -NAO block. In real time, I have seen this go for 5/5 in the last 5 times, and it's ~80-90% in the longer term (after the fact/theorized) we get a big storm,or close to it, as the west-based -NAO block is lifting out. ^-NPH (east Pacific) developing on this 384hr model, and I have done research showing a 0.80-0.90 correlation jump with +/- anomalies at 40-45N recently(minus indexes) ,in unlikely areas, jumping to key regions (PNA). Our best pattern for snow on the east coast is a Gulf of Alaska low pressure. ^italics I think this favors a neutral or +PNA in that time. Could be a good mixture for a big snowstorm. That +400dm+ -NAO lifting out has been really strong correlation-indicator in real time.

You probably aren't aware but people have only talked to me on here, after someone in the physical interacts with me, enters building, etc. fwiw. Thanks

Is AfewUniversesbelownormal still active? Can other people see these posts?

Locked. I was posting too much consecutively, thirsting for discussion. I just get excited. The last time we had a -AO like what's being advertised on models Dec 7-13 is 2009: Here are the broader analogs: My 45N theorum This is even before I hypothesize we transition into +PNA (or much less -pna) Dec 15 Anyway, then 1989 is the next best analog. That had a much different outcome thereafter, 35 years ago. (87, 85, 83, 81 -ao matches.. let's see what happens) 2016, 2017 were liter -AO matches Dec 7-13, and these went heavy -PNA Jan/Feb

Still showing up. +PNA Dec 15-28: +2020 2005 2004 2000* La Nina 1995* La Nina 1986 1985 1980 1969 1963 1960 1958 1956 minus 2021 -2016 -2012 -2008 -2007 -1992* El Nino -1984 -1978 -1971 -1970 -1965* El Nino -1959 -1957* El Nino -1951 -1949 -1948

-PNA(now) will deevolve

Also, Russia has been very cold (anomaly) since the descent into cold season. Ice accretion was accelerant(vs normal) every day then anomalous High pressure over snowcover, after. I've just been watching this, and it's been impressive anomaly.

It's been a long time since 45N has been consistently below normal. This has shown up several consecutive models runs now. (+4 more model runs, going back to yesterday) We have been, since 2019, reversing the Pacific and Atlantic at -0.70 correlation(record) I think the cold showing up in western Europe in +15-16D will translate to a favorable Pacific (+PNA(not -NAO)) in 20 days. We have had a -NAO on Christmas +4 days every year since 2017, and 7/8 years since 2014. This has been an anomaly in the midst of a very +NAO time. Laws of waves and averages gives us a 80% chance of having NAO negative Dec 21-28 this year. This means that with a favorable Pacific, the Atlantic will be at least not be against us. (I predict a 4-8" storm in the MA (average for Dec is 3") and a general snowy/cold time ~Dec 15-29/30.) [PNA may move more negative around Christmas when the NAO tendency dips negative]