Stormchaserchuck1

Man Roger tough luck.

Then you're not paying attention. If they weren't valid, I wouldn't use them. I get your blank assertions knowings. They probably have busted more times too high than too low over the last 4 years. The last 2 storms are great examples of 20:1 posting model charts showing 6-8" vs 2" snow depth, and the later verifying. Everyone acts like the models shifted last minute. That's really what they tell themselves! "384hr GFS again"!

Yeah, I mean the 500mb pattern matches east-based Nino's vs central or western based. I know we started off east-based, but you're right, technically Nino 4 was pretty warm.

I plotted them all before, but I lost the research, or I would give you analogs. I'll have to go through and do it again. I do know the EPS was showing a strong reversal from about this range (for January) all through December, and that ended up being only really 3-4 days of strong anomalies hitting +1800-2000. The rest of the days were +1000-1400. Historically, there quite a few events that went >+1800 for many days (10-14+). It seems that the EPS is showing that stronger event happening, but it has been a little flimsy in the long range this year. I also think that if there is tendency for the NAO to go negative in March, I think there will be equal tendency for -PNA/+EPO conditions to also occur.

The effects on the 500mb NAO are almost immediate (~10 days) once you get to mid-late March. We have a minor warming going on now: https://ibb.co/YBdKxQb The typical lag time in mid-late February is 15 days. They are minor NAO correlations for minor Stratosphere warmings though.

The pink, purple, orange skyline/clouds in the last few years is too dreamy to be from a volcano.

Thanks. It's amazing how much we matched PDO this year: All you had to do was roll forward that SST configuration in the Summer/Fall. You can see how El Nino correlated too, with the NPH (North Pacific High) off the West Coast, US, rolling up into Siberia. Combination of Strong East-based El Nino and Strong -PDO (Fall) did very well in the Pacific 500mb this Winter.

I don't really feel like arguing this. Let's just say to check the soundings is the best way to go. Another point is that in the warmer sector of the last few storms, we have been drying up. That's because the frontogenesis sets up to the north where it's colder. They are not really two separate things. I noticed in 2020 I think that the snow depth was hitting it every time, and that continued through last year, and now it's 5/6 in the area this year.. it's just a little weenieish to post that 0.58" of precip is going to produce 5-6" of snow when the temp is 35. I feel bad because I know there's a lot of younger people that check the board (like me when I was younger) and they just want an accurate assessment. I don't really feel like arguing this anymore though.

I think +PNA still works. I've seen many cold periods lately, when the PNA lines up right. The -NAO is ridging north, and even the -AO and -EPO to an extent, but the W->E flow pattern is still in effect. The global +13dm -PNA over the total last 25 years is a major anomaly, and no one should be making assessments about snow seasons being over because of that anomaly. As far as I know, it's cyclical.

Walking around in the grass, it appears that I got 3".

In marginal situations, those high conversion rates don't work. Since temps were always suppose to be in the low 30s, I was right that models never showed more than 4".. I've looked at the snow depth product of every model since they started showing snow for this timeframe. Up where it was colder, they went higher.. that's how it works. I would say that over 28 degrees you get the ratios shown on snow depth, and under 28 degrees it maybe goes a little higher. NWS updated at 9pm today with 5-8" hold.. What were they thinking? Anyway it was very defensive pointing out that the models were not actually showing 4-6" around DC last night.. that's all. Hope you enjoyed the snow.

I'm at about 2". https://ibb.co/P1YBHBZ

Yeah, I'll end up with ~1.5" at 467'.

Shouldn't be attacked for disagreeing that it's going to snow a lot though.. this isn't a kiddie board

I guess my schtick is that I don't even read the NWS..

It's ok, light to moderate snow here, I can always tell when there is warm air around because rates are not that heavy. Roads and sidewalks are not freezing.

No more defenses about quality of NOAA maps I'm just trying to teach what I have found are the best ways.

just saying.. the depth charts have hit it 5/6 times this Winter.

Do you think the 0z GFS shows like 5-6"?

Flurries have begun!

Still nothing here.. all virga so far. Enjoy your 1-2" Winter Storm Warning north of the cities.. the radar is drying up west of Cumberland. I think it was an easy call.. models never had over 4".

Radar lightening up in WV.. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KRLX/standard

See that dryslot west of DC around the VA/WV border?

Big bust potential.. 1z and 2z models dried up a little further, have a lot of the precip getting stuck in the mountains.. 1-2" in the lower elevations north of I-95. Will be interesting to see what happens!

I'm down to 35F. There seems to be a heat island both in Baltimore and DC. https://ibb.co/M20dcQj