Stormchaserchuck1

You captured the core +PNA there. Compared to what models were showing, it's much later developing, and not as strong. They originally had Oct 8-9 as the start of it, now it's a sheered out at that time. It's in prime position for 3-4 days then it breaks down. I have to think the PDO making a run a -3 right now, which is near record, has somewhat of a reason why it trended less impressive.

Nice little -13.58 and descending QBO to go along with our Winter El Nino. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index You can see if this is impactful ahead of time, as Stratosphere warmings lead -AO's by 15-45 days (depending when in the Winter it occurs). (time sensitive) ^last Winter we had a cooler Stratosphere PV and it was +QBO/La Nina.

This El Nino continues acting like a Weak event (global pattern). The MEI is hitting it right now, and is probably the best measurement to use to assess real conditions.

Real +PNA doesn't get going until Oct 16th now, and then it appears short-lived.

I also have to say that since models settled, the coming +PNA looks pathetic. It is sheared and veered into GOA low/+EPO, then it actually sets up for 3-4 days then collapses. I bet the -PDO played some role in what models showed for this time to what actually happened.

Right, I've actually found a slight opposite correlation (75 years of data).

You can backtest it. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table. I was doing Oct >1 =DJFM

Until we have a few dry months then they take all that green precip off.. lol

Oct NAO has negative correlation to DJFM. It's the only month of the year/12 where that is the case. PNA has +correlation.

Actually, the NAO in October is inversely correlated to the Winter. It's the only month of the year where there is a negative correlation. The coming pattern has 4 cold waves around a Greenland High, so as per data that's not really a great signal.

I've had a lot of less than 5.5" storms since then, but pretty unbelievable that that record has held through 5 years. Power of La Nina/peak -PDO. Average here is 32"/yr.

Pretty amazing to see the -PDO change the modeled look of +PNA for the next few weeks. It looks like around Oct 16th, it's finally able to re-center south of the Aleutian islands, as there is enough wear and tear at that point, and let's see if that holds.

They basically just initialize MR/LR models out... there is a good cold pattern setup coming and they apply that to the 4-6 week range.

Nov 15th, 2018 was my last big snowstorm with 5.5". no storm has topped that since. 18-19 was a Weak Nino.

Really nice signal for a +PNA Oct 14-19, it should correlate with a trough over the EC. The Oct 9 signal for the start of +PNA has been pushed back due to the low becoming more +EPO-like, I think because of the -PDO.

There is no cold water in the ENSO subsurface below Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. I've done research that shows the subsurface at -200m correlates to the N. Pacific pattern. Winter's that were Strong El Nino's that had warm patterns, had subsurface cold water in Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. You can do it from another angle, El Nino's that became La Nina's the following year, had worse Winter pattern the year of the El Nino vs El Nino's that did not become La Nina's the following year. Because there is no cold water in the subsurface of the western ENSO regions, we are less likely to have a La Nina next year. This is applicable to the Winter.

September 12th is middle of the season. It's hard to imagine we only get 2 more storms from here, unless we go in a below average pattern.

Models are really strong on +PNA starting around Oct 9th, which is generally a cooler than average pattern here. Right now GEFS has it lasting through at least Oct 15.

It looks like we're going to hit that October El Nino correlation with +PNA. I'm telling you guys, it's a pretty good correlation when ENSO subsurface is turning warm/cool, we have an associated +PNA/-PNA.

Orioles are actually pretty lucky to have #1 in the AL.. there are 3 teams with 100+ loses, 1 about to do 110+ loses.

ENSO subsurface usually correlates with the pattern. Last Winter it didn't.. still in the Spring, it looked like we were heading toward a +PNA 4-year evening-out. I just think it's veered more -PNA recently. Natural gas last Winter fell from 10.0 to 2.8 (market was surprised by the Nina conditions).

Seems like the Spring-Summer-Fall have been on schedule here not like the last 5-10+ years.

lol broad brushing Strong El Nino's as warm.. The pattern has been "meh" but there is no correlation. The globe is breaking its record by 0.5 degrees warm but that's the only thing going for it.

The way it was evolving was phase-descending.

In the old pattern October would have been well above average. We didn't max very high in the Summer, and it seems like Fall is on track for normal to below. 18z GFS ensembles have a +PNA developing about October 9th and we would likely be below average around then or after.