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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow-- AO near -3 right now.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not true.. December has the highest correlation in the NE https://ibb.co/XWm9VzH https://ibb.co/QDy6k40 https://ibb.co/Jk4TxVc
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    December low Natural Gas price for the following February, 20 years data since 1997. https://ibb.co/QjxPLwW 2.78, top 10 lowest analogs averaged about 2.5, top 10 highest analogs averaged about 6.0.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since 2019, and really 2013, -NAO has been correlating with -PNA/+EPO, and +NAO has been correlating with +PNA/-EPO. The frequency of happenings is greater than what would be random.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look familiar? These are our last two Dec 10-18's (2021, 2022) https://ibb.co/R3Pcbt3
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, we had a strong -PNA Dec 10-18 each of the last two years. https://ibb.co/FmP0kb1 https://ibb.co/DQcP131 Current models have the -PNA again for Dec 10-18 this year.. this tendency toward continuum despite El Nino makes me think again we don't blow out February with +PNA, like a lot of people/models think
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's the 384hr prog though https://ibb.co/wKX9Krm It has some general accuracy Of course, that could always become a big -NAO for January
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    The PNA stands for Pacific-North America, so it's partially calculated over our region. 1/3 of the PNA is in the N. Pacific, over the Aleutian islands in Alaska, 1/3 is on the West Coast, and 1/3 the East coast. Therefore, if the PNA like -3, that's because there's usually a ridge on the east coast downstream.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPS has never really been a good model imo. Do you know what they showed for Dec 10-18?
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something about this wants to say sorry.. it's a strong La Nina pattern in an El Nino https://ibb.co/18hVZJQ https://ibb.co/Jj78d4n
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z gfs has a pretty impressive Alaskan blizzard That cold around Greenland and Alaska at the surface is what I like to see for a gradual cold pattern.. cool source regions.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive ridge over Scandinavia the last few runs.. let's see if it holds, I've noticed big shifts over the NAO region in the LR, doesn't always load when it's suppose to.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    not gonna lie.. I really like this pattern https://ibb.co/2gnrgJq maybe we'll get a few flurries yet
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good job.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Years of watching model setups and trends, as per current conditions. These days (for the last 8-10 months or so) model initialization is more important than you would think.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    All levels are pretty warm today. Upper levels are why it could snow at all, but I wouldn't be surprised to see mid-upper 30s temps.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hitting 61 at IAD today doesn't really bode well for the future of Dec 6 storm, besides maybe seeing a dusting on the grass. It could trend deeper, but temps are an issue this far south.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the western-central subsurface warm pool of +5c (warmest of the event so far) is increasing again, as of yesterday.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    It may adjust so the later part of the storm is warm, while the earlier part is cooler, if it digs deeper. I don't like that Aleutian high popping when the trough is starting to dig across the region (hr144). I'm talking about during-for the storm.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still.. with 50/50 low, -NAO, and GOA low, it's close to the setup of a big storm. My main concern is warmer temps as the PNA is trying to go negative as the trough pushes through.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    2m temps are approaching +6c in DC. It might be hard to get accumulations south of 40N.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's not that far off what we have going for Dec 5-6.. northern Greenland ridging going into the Arctic circle.. check. main problem is that -PNA tries to take over the GOA/+pna trough too soon, It becomes an Aleutian island ridge when the trough is hitting the east coast. better chances earlier, it's weird that the earlier wave goes negative so far west.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Seems like we have a -NAO with the 50/50 low being the stronger signal.. two >+120dm regions not related to the storm, so that's a strong signal. Also to note is that in -NAO we are drier than average at a 0.40-0.50 correlation, so it usually hits big or much less (STJ phasing).
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do you have a composite of December snowstorms at BWI? or even Nov-Dec?
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a really nice 50/50 low setting up on the 12z Euro before the Dec 5-6 wave. GOA low too, Not far from being a big storm.. temps here do seem to be somewhat marginal though.
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