Stormchaserchuck1

Massive lightning bolt shots just to my east. Edit: sirens then the storm cooled down.

Cell to my south is really lighting up. Many flashes (1/1-2 seconds)

I have nice, smooth Mammatus clouds overhead in Bel Air, cell building to my south. Edit: some CC lightning next to a blue sky. Wish it were dark.

The last 2 El Nino's / -QBO's were 14-15 and 09-10, that's the 2 on record in the last 25 years. Last Winter was La Nina/ +QBO (opposite). Extend it to 1979 and you have 86-87 and 91-92. I've contested that a surface +NAO could work better for us these days than -NAO's, but that's another story.

I think we just don't have a large enough dataset. Single-digit number of years. I think a lot of Strong Nino's in the late 1800s, early 1900s were cold anyway. The pattern they always produce is a -NOI, which has to do with the North Pacific High (right off the west coast). It puts a trough there (and to the GOA). If you plot a NE Pacific Ocean trough, you have a trough over the east, but the 3 examples of Strong Nino's on record had extended 2nd wave ridges, from coast-to-coast, which I'm going to say is more of an anomaly.

For reference, last Winter was Strong Nina/+QBO = 0 inches. Pretty awesome correlation. I even in the Fall said we would have an uncorrelating -NAO, given the previous 3 Nina/+QBO's, since 2008.

I could see us getting 30-60" next Winter, pretty easily. We have a -QBO too which really goes well with El Nino. I've always contested that he Stronger the Nino, the better.. Biggest fear is a 18-19 type of deal where the PNA correlates until Nov then the -PDO, or global -AAM enhances tendency for a SE ridge. You guys did fine in 13-14 and 14-15 so I wouldn't worry too much.

Years after a NAO event(s) doesn't correlate, the pattern [PNA] is uniform. I think a Strong Nino, even east-based, could put a mean trough over us.

>+7c now in the subsurface of TAO/Triton maps. What I think is interesting is that the western subsurface has warmed back to +1c, when most of the Stronger El Nino years were colder in the western regions by now. A 2nd year Neutral/El nino could be more likely.

You don't even have a strong 500mb ridge overhead. All the way out near Africa a TC is about to develop.

We had a global warming spike until May. Now the S. Hemisphere is warming pretty good, so I'm not sure it's over. I did do a research that years after the NAO didn't correlate (negative-warm here, positive-cold here), the following year the pattern was uniform to indexes 2x or 2SD better, so if we have a +PNA or GOA low (more likely in El Nino) it should put a 3rd wave trough over the EC in the Winter.

Droughts, then Moderate-Strong El Nino's have given us some good results in the past.

Subsurface is really flexing +. If we go Strong El Nino this year, it could tip the scales to go back to cold in 2024 (I was seeing earlier that we had the potential for a 2-year El Nino.

We are also weighing pretty heavily on a +PNA this December (Dec 2023), but it could moderate slightly when last year was more + at the end of Dec.

This year-to-year correlation is still valid. I'd expect a -AO (Artic circle warmth) at the same time next year. That could be a strong start to Artic ice melt next year, and current conditions over Antarctica are the 2nd point showing that could be a good start to next year.

Early season storms are more likely to track W->E 20N/60W is a huge point difference to pass north or south of. 70/30 vs 10/90 or something.

ENSO subsurface has warmed up to almost +7c in the east, meaning that we will probably see a rapidly strengthening El Nino at least through July. Since year 2000, 16/21 Seasons have had 15+ TC [tropical cyclone]. (All 5 under 15 were developing El Nino's) (No season non-El Nino since 2000 has had under 15TC. Most recent, 2018 was a rapidly developing Summer El Nino (although weak): 15TC. 2016 was the most recent rapidly developing Summer La Nina: 15TC.

Subsurface is taking on Moderate-Strong El Nino configuration with >+6c in the east, and cooling in the west.

Just some musings because the thread is dead.. These droughts have lately been filled in there after by above average precipitation.. Since June is below normal, I can see July and August potentially being above average temperatures, as that is the macro pattern. (Watch the LR pattern, Days 10-15 for favorable tropical tracks to hit the EC, if anything develops this early..) I said before that the precip pattern has preceeded some harsh, snowy Winters.. this correlation may hit early, and neutralize for the Winter, I'd give us a 250-300% chance of hitting above average rainfall with a tropical system early in the season.. If we don't get that correlation by August, watch for some +PNA signals.

A beautiful, windy day. I guess all the rain at this point will come from thunderstorms, huh?

AMO has recently had an inverse correlation to ENSO. Since 1995 +AMO change, we have seen 8 El Nino's and 15 La Nina's. Here is May AMO correlation to Dec: https://ibb.co/BTQ2pzk

That warm wave seems to be leveling out now. 12z GFS ensembles look actually La Ninaish in the MR/LR, Take it for what it's worth. I contest that the globe is in a state that would have to spin up a +1c> Nino to level it off, call it -AAM or whatever.

We're definitely due. Someone did a correlation that Winter's like 2002 followed dry times. Sometimes those far out correlations hit closer term, could be a tropical storm if we stay dry until then..

Btw it's unhealthy that everyone is 20-50x more talking because of the smoke.

It's been strangely cloudy but no chance of rain the last 2 days. I wonder if anything different is going on weatherwise (besides the smoke).