Stormchaserchuck1

July will be the 10th consecutive month with +SOI. We did 31 straight +SOI months 2020-early 2023. The decadal La Nina state is holding, through the SOI.

La Nina is developing At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains (subsurface has more flux than surface SSTs. It could wane in the coming months. It did last year.)

La Nina is developing At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains.

You think that will enhance MJO Phases 4-5-6 in the Wintertime?

Electric storm to my south. They are probably getting crushed over Baltimore. Probably the best storm of the season.

Did you ever see what Feb 1936 looked like in Montana? Summer 1935 Phoenix had more 100+ consecutive days vs every other year on record to that point. That specific datapoint really did well last year rolled forward, Valentine Nebraska hit -32F in late February last year.

-5c now showing up in the TAO/Triton subsurface. That is "Moderate-Nina like".

It does seem like Atlantic SSTAs are not that different from the overall global warming trend. The cold in the 1970s and 1980s was notable and anomalous, but we might not get anything like that in the future, it may also just be a longer trend than we realize, thinking that there won't be cold Atlantic SSTs for the next 20 years or so. I was actually swimming in the south Carribean this Summer, the water was colder than I expected. There is definitely room for more warming

Is that for real? I know that from what I've experienced, there is not much difference from the Summers now and when I was a kid, actually it seemed a little hotter when I was a kid with more black-sky thunderstorms. I know there was a wave of "warmer Summer min's" in the early 2000s, but it doesn't seem to be an over-inflated trend, the temperature progression of Summers. On the west coast it is a different story, it's much warmer and drier. It may be more of a pattern: the drought in the SW, US started in 1995. Phoenix had broken records every Summer 2022-2024 I think until this Summer.

lmao another year where raindances thoughts from the spring about the fall is the most liked post in this thread, and it's turning out to be opposite. Not saying it's wrong or anything, I just think it's funny. Last year the most liked post was the possibility of a +PDO transition, and October ended up having the most negative reading on record. Now the most liked post is about a possible El Nino lol. raindance is usually pretty sharp with his analysis though.

Look at how much this cold pool is blowing up on TAO/Triton CPC usually lags a few days to weeks.

18z GEFS actually really gets us cool Aug 1-7. Could open the month with a -3 to -4 first week, per the ensemble mean.

I think he's getting excited about the warm water NE of Hawaii, but the Pacific Ocean current doesn't really work like that.. there are different flows in the Gulf of Alaska and east of Japan/north of hawaii where the warm water is.. It doesn't really trend to a new area, it's a uniform circulation that would have to change the whole thing to have that majical +PDO I do think there will be arctic blasts this Winter, as the Summer AO has been so positive, and Arctic ice is not really going to a new low, but it's most likely to occur in the Upper Midwest and NW.

We are really developing this Hadley Cell pattern in the Pacific.. this is vs the global temp

^He's talking about a +PDO, which is about the least-likely thing to happen on the planet right now. If the Winters cold, it won't be because N. Pacific SSTs are the driver. His analogs come out to a +1.5 Winter PDO average. We've never seen anything close to that jump before.. last year it almost neutralized from record levels in the Fall, but that might be the biggest jump on record, and H5 was leading.

You might say that these are not big anomalies, but this is the +AO that just won't go away. So persistent since May! There might really be the chance for some -EPO periods this Winter, as I believe a cold H5 over the Greenland part of the Arctic Circle correlates to -epo/+pna actually in the wintertime.. not sure I would forecast anything other than a negative PNA though with what's going on in the Pacific. We saw this same pattern last year until September.

I wouldn't discount a normal or slightly above normal snowfall season this year in the mean.. but the odds of a big one, like top 5% are probably much less... 1%

This is what the CANSIPS had for July at a 0.0 month lead

^Yeah, it's a pretty big anomaly because Strong La Nina's don't result in following El Nino's. Maybe it has something to do with if the event is West or East-based? I think you mean 1982, not 1988? Although the moderate El Nino in 87-88 did transition to a strong La Nina the following year. 82-83 was followed by 2 years of La Nina. I think that last year wasn't La Nina, given that it was Weak Nina by other metrics, and that we are doing it again here in the 2nd year means that the same pattern happened after the 23-24 Strong Nino. I do think that over 200-300 years of data the same pattern won't continue. But something is happening over the last 50 years that is making stronger Nino's reverse.

This La Nina tendency after Strong El Nino's is very interesting. What is happening 1998-2025 that is making it reverse so hard? I would think it's a matter of not having enough data, as ENSO events should run in a continuum but for the last few decades there have been big fluctuations. This happened in the 1970s and 1980s too.

ONI may not make the 5-month classification. SSTAs are still pretty warm. What's interesting is the difference between 3-month and 5-month classification in ONI since the CPC changed its guidelines a few years ago. If this year doesn't make 5-consecutive months: 5/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 3-month ONI 8/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 5-month ONI RONI/MEI are heading for Weak La Nina I think. MEI may even borderline Moderate Nina in a few monthlies. I found that central-ENSO-subsurface has the best classification with North Pacific pressure pattern, so if the subsurface cold water continues to strength, watch out for more -PNA N. Pacific patterns in the coming Fall/Winter. Very interesting how the SOI was so neutral at this time last year, and this year it's been positive every month since Oct 2024. SOI is kind of in its own world regarding the evolution of ENSO lately, but I think it's a good indicator.

30-day SOI is back above +5. 17/20 +SOI days in July so far. -3c pocket developing in the ENSO-subsurface

Talking on the internet is an extension of yourself. I'd argue that it's actually more real because the reflection is staring right back at you. With time, you start to communicate better. I know my posting has changed a lot from when I was young to now.. I didn't know completely how it would be perceived back then. In face-to-face talk it's very spontaneous.

Another note: Someone other than the Chiefs is expected to win the AFC West in current betting odds. Cleveland is least likely off all teams to win their division, although the NO Saints have the worst SB odds at 400:1 An all-New York super bowl is 250:1, although New York has the most championships in sports of all cities by a pretty good amount Other than that, I'm always surprised how uniform it is year-to-year. Defenses vary more than the betting odds suggest.

I'm actually stoked for the Ravens defense this season. And Derrick Henry is still in his prime.. age starts becoming a bigger factor next year.. the time might realistically be weighted toward now. I still think our WR corps are a little weak, but that and maybe kicker are the only soft spots on the team. At least we don't have the Bills WR's, they are currently tied with Ravens for #1 betting Super bowl odds: 1:6.5. Edit: I see the Eagles are back tied with the Ravens and Bills for #1.. they had fallen to #3 a few weeks ago.