Stormchaserchuck1
-
Posts
5,499 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
-
Again it looks like a nice thunderstorm pattern.
-
PDO was positive in 82-83 It was a +AO Winter however. A few things that I look at in the warm season, posted earlier in the thread are going toward more -AO this coming Winter. So that's a plus.
-
Oh, I thought it was recent. My mistake. Facebook things posted out of context. I assumed the record cold >80N was creating a ridge underneath. The cold this year up there is certainly impressive! -
I just saw this Apparently it was verified by the WMO
-
Did you see that it just hit 100 degrees in the Arctic circle for the first time ever, on the Russia side.
-
+5c -PDO warm pool lol
-
Yeah, historical composite is somewhat limited. There were plenty of +EPO/+WPO La Nina's in the 1895-1948 dataset.
-
It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July.
-
I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern.
-
My point is they are one in the same - If you take the chlorophyll out of 1 green leaf, it is X amount of chlorophyll "Weak". If you take the chlorophyll out of 5 green leaves, it is still 5x amount of chlorophyll "Super". Everyone thinks ENSO events are a different entity in different strengths. That's not true at all. It's true that where they are based or dominant makes a difference, but a "Super Nino" is not actually different from "Weak Nino" except that it's impact - on the same thing - is greater.
-
July ECMWF run.. it has a warm bias but wow
-
Science forum bro. I don't think a -EPO can't happen.. that's more possible than historical analog suggests, but +PNA has been really hard to come by in this peak decadal -PDO or whatever is going on.
-
^I think it was you that made the good point that the S. Hemisphere Winter has high correlation, and a trough is usually dominant in El Nino's. We haven't seen that so far this year. An El Nino this strong should still show something vs recent climo imo.
-
Hadley Cell contraction in July 1972, 1982, 1997. Not so much in 2015, 2023. We are still following closer analogs most closely
-
Maybe a little bit of an extreme bias If we continue to see no Hadley Cell contraction that would really be something!
-
That N. Pacific Low is in the perfect position for our historical analog snowstorms. And -NAO, just put a 50/50 low underneath like mitchnick said it would look really favorable. Unfortunately, seasonal models have a huge ENSO bias. We have not seen a North Pacific low for more than a few days since January, July will be the 6th month in a row of -PNA. Just not getting that pattern at all right now. In 2023 it was never occurring too, and seasonal models kept outputting the same default ENSO, which didn't verify.
-
It would be nice to get a N. Pacific trough at all, for all the models showing this for the Winter
-
I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however.
-
El Nino who? ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023)
-
Northern Hemisphere pattern continues to disconnect from ENSO
