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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's an interesting stat: 13 straight February's with +NAO (CPC). 10/13 have been >+1.00. For comparison, our last Winter month (DJFM) with any monthly NAO <-1.11 was Dec 2010.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Strongest on record, since the mid 1800s.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 would have been well above normal if it wasn't for strong -NAO. Not saying we can't have -NAO this Winter, it's more random vs ENSO
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Best I could do is 20c isotherm depth, but here's most recent day vs that day in 1997 Depth average temp Edit: I found 1997's full subsurface profile
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Going to be a really Super Nino. +8C has appeared in the subsurface. I think only 1997 matched this. I love strong events - because seeing how the global pattern responds gives indications about the current state of things.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    +8C! How healthy does this look (also notice there's no major cold water building in the west)?
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Long range models constantly had a 500mb trough over the Mid Atlantic, including the Euro. This held all Summer/Fall then in the Winter the long range Euro weeklies were constantly showing the same pattern, a trough over the Mid Atlantic. It didn't work out - 23-24 was the warmest winter on record for US.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Euro weeklies have it around the 2nd week of July
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    So much for everyone saying we can't have Super Nino's so close together. That's what I want to stress with a lot of this ENSO stuff, historical data isn't extensive and different periods of time have different conditions that are not universal constants.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everything is always green. We haven't been in a true drought since 2002.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Today's new CPC Winter forecast
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something interesting to ponder is after the 23-24 Super Nino, the Atlantic was warmest ever in 2024. Does the recent trend of -AMO prevail, or do we see the same warming next year (it did have a head start in 2023)?
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    New seasonal and monthly CPC for July and the late Summer looks like a good thunderstorm pattern forecast
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I notice the CPC doesn't even use AI models in their long range forecast, and I can verify that they don't have much skill at that range. EPS is probably still the way to go Saying "AI is the way to go" just makes you look smart imo, not a huge leap from previous models
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    PNA is finally going positive for the first time since early May, for the 2nd half of June. June as a whole will end up being the 5th consecutive month of -PNA though
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 1+2 is +2.8c! July in strongly warm Nino 1+2 years August and September are near average historically, for most of the country. Maybe not enough examples. Let's see if we get a cool October. If the PDO doesn't shift to neutral by then, it counteracts this.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface continues to look really healthy. TAO/Triton will probably pop >+8c in the next few days.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I can never get U of Del Air Temp working on the correlation composite. Is there a secret to it? June will likely be the 5th straight month of -PNA (CPC). I've found that the correlation roll forwards are weak for what happens later in the year, surprisingly.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Moving a little more exponential the last few days Subsurface looks really healthy right now Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just haven't been able to get Summer Arctic ridging since the ice melt peak in 2012. 15 years is impressive for that record to hold, in this exponentially warming world.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Northern Russia gets 4980dm in mid-June tomorrow. Pretty impressive!
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Probably my best thunderstorm of the year ongoing
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ever since the Solar Max in May 2024, where a weakened magnetic field brought the aurora borealis very far towards the central part of the Earth - The warm season has been getting this cold 60-90N. At the end of last September, I think we had the lowest 500mb on record for the month in the N. Hemisphere, all time.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I made a series of posts regarding the Winter, and things to watch out for later this year, in the Mid-Atlantic forum, starting here:
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