Stormchaserchuck1

Not typically what you see in an El Nino here (RNA). https://ibb.co/8Bb2btg

We are looking at a +7 departure for April, or something like that.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/flux/index.html

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/taotriton-map There is a way to archive data back to 1979. 12z GFS ensembles have a -PNA throughout the next 15 days. It was a big shift, again, from 06z. -PNA correlates to central-subsurface cooling, or at least a stop in the warming.

I think we will go Weak to Moderate. https://ibb.co/z5zRZ4Y There is also a chance the El Nino could die out completely by June-July. Remember, this is the 3rd year in a row of March-May warming, although the current event is more extreme.

There actually are a high number of years that have Nino 1+2 differing from Nino 3/4. I came up with 11 years since 1988. +2012 +2010 +2008 +2002 +2001 +1998 -2013 -2005 -1996 -1995 -1994 You may say not as extreme, but it's very close. 11 years.. the signal dies going into July. May June (out of attachment space) https://ibb.co/Dw0vXKY July https://ibb.co/TmVtXnY July 9th.. the developing "Strong Nino" signal is lessened and almost diminished.

It's a satelite-era glitch. I noticed on the climate divison maps that the US was +PNA 1942-1947. Then satelites started in Jan 1948, and we were opposite, -PNA, 1948-1954. +6 years. The PDO extreme was 4-5 years after the start of satellite era in Jan 1948. -3 monthly PDO. We hit -3 PDO the only other time in 2022. 1948 to 1952-1953 was 4-5 years +4-5 gave us a perfect +PNA signal when no ENSO-connected + years the PDO extreme. So I'm going for +PNA the next 4 Winter's, and ENSO is not related to the overall calculation, so more El Nino tendency in that time.

Yeah, I was saying 1+ year ago, the NAO is oppositely correlating. That a +NAO Winter would be better than -NAO Winter. There were like 20 posts in the Fall about -NAO Winter being bad...

I remain very impressed at the high correlation between central subsurface temperatures and the North Pacific pattern (PNA). Nothing else, no other measurement, even comes close. (I've tested SOI, zonal winds, OLR etc. take out their correlation to subsurface and it's <0.20 correlation real time)

I found that we are more likely to have +PNA the next 4 Winter's, using satellite recorded PDO conditions (also independent from ENSO). It was + the 1950s extremes.

Looks like we could have a -NOI around mid-month, and looking at N. Hemisphere pressure patterns, a -SOI of significance possibly Apr 15-20.. This is the first real expanded effect of El Nino that we've seen, if it happens (it was a model flip at 0z and 6z)

2nd day too hot to really enjoy being outside, humid.

500mb low spinning out to the SW of Iceland, is probably making for some beautiful conditions.

2012 analog has been hitting many points in the late Winter/Spring.. I'm curious to see how hot the Summer gets.

Subsurface thermocline is evening out, although I bet the surface event will get stuck at where global SSTA maxes are. If it surpasses those maxes before July, it will probably go Strong Nino. I am again, weary because 3 years in a row we warmed March-May then June cooled.

The last 2 "hot" Aprils in the East/SE, were 2017 and 2019, 18 and 17NS. 2012 had a "hot" March, and that was 19NS.

I forecast a colder/snowier Winter because we had +PNA last Apr-Oct, and Russia snowpack started accreting very rapid in the Fall. The SE ridge right now is seeming to be organic to the EC/Midwest (how models trend), so that may negate some of the -PNA relevance to ENSO right now.

2002 and 2004 are good analogs to expanding Hadley Cell's in developing El Nino's.. unless the event goes Strong like you say (climatological history gives us about a 35-40% chance). Our last developing Strong Nino had 11NS and 4 Hurricanes.

Just reloads and reloads of -PNA as we possibly approach 90 degrees after April 15th. El Nino's don't have this kind of -PNA in April usually.. also remember the last El Nino (Weak) in 2018-19 had a +200dm -PNA in February, which is usually ENSO's highest correlated month to the N. Hemispheric pattern. -PNA through 15 day models usually correlates with cooling in the subsurface ENSO, which given the time pass gives us much lower chance for Stronger event. And Weaker El Nino's are not breaking the, what some would call, -PDO.

I think thunderstorms in the Midwest are driving the N. Hemispheric pattern right now (models).

That's a big +EPO all of a sudden, in tangent with -400dm max +NAO. We are going to be very warm as a departure by mid month. Expect later this week/weekend to verify warmer than forecasted.

We are in somewhat of a global warming spike though. The very fact that Global SSTs could move up so quicky could raise alarms, may keep it closer to the nearest global SSTA max. I have a lot of the same vibes as 2005.

I find it interesting that the warmest anomalies are over Russia (a reversal), and there is mean colder air just about everywhere else.. PNA region and EC. that means that the cold air spreads out and temperature reverses over Russia, as not an anomaly.. pretty good sign for next Winter, just that verbatim.

Russia has been cold Oct-Apr. I wonder what correlation that is to next Winter. Here you go.. since 1980, next Winter analogs: https://ibb.co/Xzm5Hh1

This is AAM, which is an Earth-momentum index. It's strongly correlated with ENSO, and this below is -GLAAM, usually correlated to La Nina events. https://ibb.co/JdfyjXS