Stormchaserchuck1

Kind of see this a lot now.. April the new May, 2 weeks ahead. I'm really curious to see how these correlations go as the El Nino matures, if it matures.

How stupid they were that the world was falling away from me, when I did not do science research, i.e. weather

-nao, -ao, -pna, which holds more weight? https://ibb.co/QYFCMkG (Nao has also been anti-thesis for about 10 years now, which means watch out for pacific patterns forming just based on opposite conditions of normal nao state.)

Nice -NAO event Days 4-15. If I know anything, we'll gravitate toward more average - above average if the -NAO holds closer

https://ibb.co/Ttxr54C That's a pretty wicked cold pattern. I wonder if the 1) -NAO will stop trending since that has been the trend since 2013. 2) If the +PNA takes over the current -WP projected (ENSO subsurface warm favors more +pna).

On really a nothing pattern too. Meaning, we could be much more favorable for warmth potentially. It's no surprise it's going to cool off soonafter. Overall tendencies are not changing any.

Yeah, it's really trended toward -NAO. Not too much or no snow.. My latest day with snow is May 2nd.

09-10 3 blizzards melted in 3 days, each time. mid 30s, it was ridiculous. We need heavy cloud cover these days (I hate 09-10). I'm saying we are really amped for a big storm, but the "nothing but GOA giving us snow" is really a snow drought pattern.

Here's that pattern again. -WPO and -NAO, and SE ridge and SW High pressure. https://ibb.co/bvWbJ7V That's why I think we are more likely to have a Winter like 15-16 or 09-10 vs 02-03 or 95-96 (1 storm vs many).

I would definitely expect +PNA to even this out... We have been in this +/- swing thing for a while.

By looking at your posts, I can gather we could be looking at a 2 year El Nino event (variation differences since 2007/8 or 13)(unpredictability)? I have a +PNA signal for the next 4 Winters general/combined..

Here you go.. you can better confirm El Nino event with this pattern in place. Looking at the correlation maps, PNA oppositely correlates Feb - maybe mid-April then it's +correlation so not a big variation event, the current -PNA maybe https://ibb.co/H259JXG

Nice +PNA too https://ibb.co/H259JXG This is what you want to see if you want next Winter to be good.

Kind of a massive little -AO here at end of April

Here you guys go.. would love to see this pattern through November. First real sign of a sustained +PNA. https://ibb.co/Z8zQyYk

Not a good night for MLB baseball.

Almost 90 tomorrow?

Now we have this. 2018 was similar at 10mb too. https://ibb.co/0jz7xjw

I think it will be hard to break the -PNA. I've noticed the only short term index that is trending over the last few months is negative PNA. If we have a Stronger Nino, there should be a GOA low at least. El Nino/-QBO is usually perfect for Stratosphere warmings, but we may have done 1 of the cycle already in Feb-March. I don't think the 7 years in a row of -PNA is done, even if we have a stronger El Nino breaking it temporarily (which will be interesting to see if that happens, so far no signs of change in the N. Hemisphere). (Kind of an interesting clash coming up.) I also have a satellite-era PDO signal for 4 Winters of +PNA starting 23-24, so maybe the opposite of what you're thinking. That's just a map of NAO's that don't correlate, the next Winter, it becomes a pressure-dominant NAO index.

12 years I came up with since 1948, where the NAO -correlated to the EC, with this Winter being #1. I tried to filter out Pacific patterns too. analogs https://ibb.co/yRPshZv The next Winter the pattern is uniform. These are 3 +/-/+ in sync wavelengths. fwiw https://ibb.co/XF39BLX pops the -PNA. We have more of a +AAM.

It worked again... 4th time in a row La Nina/+QBO has led to -NAO. Quite a little anti-thesis verifying. https://ibb.co/JRbpVST I bet you if next year is El Nino/-QBO, -NAO will not be most dominant pattern in the N. Hemisphere, everything else but that Maybe even something like 13-14/14-15, in the extreme.

I know this Winter all year long the models would have to shift toward a GOA low to have snow. No other patterns were holding any non-warm weight, just a GOA low. When it didn't happen, it wouldn't snow. I know a Strong Nino is the #1 GOA low pattern, but it's a really concerning signal going long term, the 1 condition needed for snow.

I remember when nobody posted if it wasn't about future snow chances. Here's a cool map. 5-month change https://ibb.co/1sst316 We need the event to be this extreme to be independent from global random right now.

Man it's too hot to even walk. There is no reason for why it's this hot right now, as like, a dominant pattern.